Venezuela's Sky Isolation: Only 2,000 People Can Fly Weekly — The Reason Behind the Disappearance of Venezuela's International Flights

A Country Connected by Just 20 Wings: Why Venezuela's "Sky Isolation" is Accelerating

Year-end in Madrid. Venezuelan musician Reynaldo Goitia found himself spending the night on the "office floor of the airline" instead of the airport floor after his return flight was suddenly canceled. In an era where cross-border travel is commonplace, such stories are becoming less of an "exception."mint

Currently, the Venezuelan sky is astonishingly narrow and fragile. The number of "operational aircraft" connecting the country to the outside world has shrunk to about 20, with only 1,000 to 2,000 people able to use international flights per week. Considering that there used to be about 15,000 people traveling by air each week, this is truly a "shrinking of the skies."Jalopnik

Moreover, this rapid decline cannot be explained by "lack of equipment" alone. Since late 2025, political and military tensions have directly impacted aviation safety assessments, leading airlines worldwide to repeatedly decide "not to fly," further isolating Venezuela from the global route network.Jalopnik

Once a "City Where Concorde Flew"

To understand the current situation, one must know the extent of the decline. In the 1970s, Caracas was one of the destinations where Air France deployed the Concorde (serving Rio, Caracas, Washington, etc.). A country that once had a "first-class seat in the sky" as a symbol of the oil boom has, half a century later, been reduced to relying on "just 20 planes."

Other reports suggest that from the 1990s to the mid-2010s, Venezuela was known as a "profitable aviation market." Rich oil revenues and a strong currency made overseas travel accessible. Thus, the contraction of aviation is not merely a regression of transportation infrastructure but also a sign of the loss of societal wealth and openness.

The Chain of "Don't Fly": The Mechanism of Disappearing International Flights

1) International Carriers Ceasing Operations One After Another

According to reports, some of the airlines that have been handling international flights (about a dozen) have stopped or suspended operations in recent years, leaving very limited options. As international logistics, including cargo, thin out, the impact becomes apparent, especially on "time-sensitive items" such as pharmaceuticals, fresh produce, and industrial parts.Jalopnik

The cessation of airline operations is not simply because "it's dangerous." Aviation is an industry where costs skyrocket if even one aspect—insurance, maintenance, payment, fuel, crew dispatch—becomes uncertain. Especially for international flights, there are no maintenance bases locally, and alternative equipment or parts are not readily available. As a result, even if the danger level is "moderate," withdrawal becomes a rational decision.Jalopnik

2) The Airspace Itself Becomes a "Risk"

In November 2025, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a warning to major airlines about flying over Venezuela, describing it as a "potentially dangerous situation." The background includes deteriorating security and increased military activity in the area, with threats potentially affecting aircraft regardless of altitude. Furthermore, since September, there has been an increase in GNSS (satellite positioning) interference, with instances of prolonged impact during flights.

The FAA's warning is not a "total ban," but it does require a "72-hour advance notification of flight plans" as a U.S. procedural measure, thereby reducing the freedom of operation. In terms of on-the-ground decision-making, "not taking unnecessary risks" tends to be the optimal solution, resulting in routes being redesigned to avoid Venezuela.

3) The "Closure Declaration" Freezes Market Sentiment

Adding to this situation was a statement by U.S. President Donald Trump in December 2025 on social media, declaring that "Venezuelan airspace and surrounding areas should be considered closed." Regardless of the legal binding force, for airline risk departments and the insurance market, it serves as a "signal to reevaluate based on the worst-case scenario."

The Meaning of "20 Aircraft": National Mobility Becomes a "Bottleneck"

For travelers, "old equipment" and "few flights" might just be inconveniences. However, at the national level, aviation is not just about moving people but also about the circulation of funds, parts, healthcare, education, and family reunions. Having only about 20 operational aircraft means that even if there is demand, supply cannot be increased, prices soar, and a single cancellation can lead to a "chain of cancellations."Jalopnik

For example, as the number of aging aircraft increases, maintenance time lengthens, and the likelihood of being grounded waiting for parts (AOG) rises. If attempts are made to increase flight frequency by rotating aircraft, the operation rate approaches its limit, and even minor troubles can disrupt the entire schedule. In a market with no surplus equipment, cancellations do not mean "just catch the next flight" but rather result in the "disappearance of travel" for days to weeks.Jalopnik

In fact, it is said that about 40,000 travel plans were affected just in December. The decision to cease operations involves not only "safety" but also comprehensive judgments including insurance, maintenance, parts procurement, crew safety, and the risk of misreading international situations.mint

The Immediate "Trigger": What Happened in the Caribbean

A symbolic event reported in the media is the "near miss" on December 12, 2025. A civilian aircraft (JetBlue flight) from Curaçao to New York reportedly came within a few hundred meters of a U.S. Air Force aerial refueling aircraft. The U.S. side also mentioned the possibility of "GPS or radar interference," highlighting a scenario where civilian aircraft are feared to be mistaken for military aircraft.mint

At the same time, the FAA specifically listed the risks of civilian aviation being involved against the backdrop of military tensions around Venezuela. With the Venezuelan military possessing weapons systems that reach high altitudes and ongoing military exercises and mobilizations, "accidents can happen even without intent," which is the greatest fear in the aviation world.

The Venezuelan government has also shown a hardline stance against foreign airlines that have stopped international flights, reportedly stating, "If you stop operations, you don't need to return the equipment; we will manage with our own aircraft." However, the reality is that the country cannot support demand with "only domestic aircraft," further narrowing the options for passengers.mint

Long-term Factors: Why Has It Shrunk So Much?

Multiple factors overlap in the background.

The "Pre-existing Condition" of Interrupted Direct Flights

Direct flights between the U.S. and Venezuela have remained suspended since 2019, when U.S. authorities took measures to halt them for safety and security reasons. U.S. public documents also explain that the situation threatens the safety and security of passengers, aircraft, and crew, necessitating immediate suspension. In other words, Venezuela's "poor external connectivity" in aviation had been progressing even before the current tensions.

Sanctions and Credit Contraction

The state-owned airline Conviasa has been designated as a sanction target by the U.S. Treasury Department, making it prone to restrictions in international finance and transactions. Aviation is an industry that relies on international credit at every stage, including fuel, maintenance, insurance, and payments. A credit bottleneck slows down the pace of equipment renewal and route reconstruction.

Rising Security Risks

As the FAA warned, when military exercises, mobilizations, and GNSS interference overlap, the decision on whether to operate flights stops at "safety" before "politics." For airlines, the worst scenario is not a "clear ban" but the ambiguity of risks that change daily, requiring constant reconfiguration of routes, crew assignments, and insurance conditions.

Avoiding Venezuelan Airspace: The Impact is Not Limited to the "Country Involved"

Venezuela is located in northern South America, and in route planning from the southern United States to various parts of South America, it is an "airspace that may be passed through." In fact, while direct passenger and cargo flights from the U.S. have been suspended since 2019, some flights to South America have been passing over it, according to Reuters. Therefore, the FAA's warning could affect not only passengers traveling to and from Venezuela but also the entire operation connecting the "U.S.-South America."

According to Reuters, some U.S. airlines have already stopped passing over Venezuelan airspace. American Airlines ceased overflights in October 2025, and Delta Air Lines explained that it had been avoiding it "for some time." This suggests that the perception of risky airspace had been progressing beneath the surface, possibly before it became public through "political statements."

When airlines avoid airspace, flight times increase, fuel costs rise, and crew scheduling changes. Even a detour of just a few tens of minutes can accumulate costs in a network with many flights, lowering the threshold for cancellation decisions. Especially if insurance premiums rise, connections break down, and punctuality worsens, the route itself may become unprofitable, accelerating withdrawal.Jalopnik

And in the aviation world, the scariest thing is not a "confirmed ban" but a "situation where a ban might occur." The FAA itself states that Venezuela has never shown an intention to target civilian aviation, but lists factors such as military capabilities and low-altitude risks that could lead to accidents. Even without intent, misidentification, electronic interference, or human error could result in an "irreparable one-time event"—to avoid this, civilian aviation must be conservative.

Tensions at Sea Reflecting in the Sky: The Military's "Same Airspace" Problem

The FAA's warning context includes military tensions around Venezuela. According to Reuters, the region has multiple U.S. Navy vessels, including aircraft carriers and fighter jets, and it has been reported that the regime attacked ships suspected of drug trafficking. The more military activity intensifies, the higher the risk for civilians sharing the same airspace and sea.

Meanwhile, the FAA points out that Venezuela is conducting military exercises and mobilizing reserves, raising the military's readiness. Such "mutual tensions" pose a threat to civilian aviation, not in terms of who is right, but because "the probability of misidentification and accidents increases." In other words, the more intense the political conflict becomes, the more aviation "stops first."mint

Yet People Move: New "Detours" and Their Costs

When flights disappear, people look for alternative routes. Returning home via Caribbean islands (such as Aruba or Curaçao) or neighboring countries, crossing borders by land before flying—however, detours increase not only time and money but also the risks of visas, security, and missed connections. In a sky where "cancellations are the norm," even a one-day delay in travel plans can disrupt accommodations, work, and family plans. Goitia's case highlights this reality.mint

The same applies to logistics. Air cargo is used because it is