"Kyoto is Fully Booked, Regions Have Vacancies" — Cities Without Domestic Tourists and the Reasons They Haven't Returned: Accommodations Japanese No Longer Choose, Rethinking Leisure Choices

Crowded Kyoto, soaring city center prices, and noticeable vacancies in rural areas. The wave of inbound tourism and the shift in residents' values are rewriting the travel map.

1. Data Indicates a "Broad, Quiet Slowdown"

Domestic stays by Japanese people are slowing down. The total number of overnight stays from January to July 2025 decreased by 4% year-on-year to 261.22 million nights. More than 70% of the 47 prefectures, totaling 35, saw declines, with Kyoto and Tokyo among four prefectures experiencing drops of over 10% (according to the source article's compilation).
The background includes (1) congestion due to a surge in inbound tourism, (2) rising accommodation prices, (3) the end of post-COVID support measures, and (4) a return to overseas travel.

Inbound tourism is at a record pace. The number of visitors to Japan in 2024 reached an all-time high of 36.87 million, and the momentum continued into 2025, with a record level (3.43 million) in July alone. The cumulative total from January to July increased by 18.4% year-on-year to approximately 24.9 million. The weak yen exchange rate is a tailwind, with significant growth particularly from mainland China and the United States.Reuters

Meanwhile, friction over tourism congestion and behavioral rules is erupting in various places. In Kyoto's Gion, private alleys were closed to tourists in 2024, and measures to address manners continue.The Guardian
At Mount Fuji, to curb "bullet climbing," a paid gate and a daily limit of 4,000 people were introduced on the Yoshida Route starting in the summer of 2024.AP News

2. Different "Winds" in Regions—"West High, East Low" and the Expo Effect

In January to July, 12 prefectures saw an increase in overnight stays. Osaka Prefecture experienced a 3% increase due to the Expo effect, and parts of the Kinki to Tokai regions remained solid, excluding Kyoto. However, the article predicts that Kyoto will continue to see a double-digit decline due to worsening congestion, with domestic tourists likely to flow out, as seen in 2024.
In fact, Kyoto City, where tourists are concentrated, has announced a significant increase in the accommodation tax (up to 10,000 yen per night for luxury stays), sparking a debate. Discussions on social media and in overseas media have spread, questioning whether it will effectively alleviate congestion or if revenue generation is the main focus.The Times

Furthermore, the "Osaka-Kansai Expo" will open in the spring of 2025. The expansion of capacity in western Japan and the concentration of international attention continue.Le Monde.fr

3. Earthquakes, Special Demand, and Drama Filming Locations—"Localized Factors" Behind the Numbers

In Ishikawa Prefecture, domestic stays decreased by 26% from January to July, as the demand for reconstruction following the Noto Peninsula earthquake (2024) subsided and support discounts ended (according to the article). In Kanazawa, there are voices on the ground saying, "The total number is about the same due to the increase in European inbound tourists." Meanwhile, Shimane Prefecture saw an 11% decrease. There is a view that the flow from Kansai shifted to the Expo, leading to a slowdown in spring to early summer.

These "localized factors" can temporarily influence travel destination preferences. Travel in 2025 needs to be observed as a "shift in the spotlight" rather than a uniform national recovery.

4. Where Have Residents Gone?—From Travel to "Content"

Where are money and time flowing as travel expenses are reduced? The source article cites household data from JCB/Nowcast, pointing out that while there are months with negative "travel" in 2025, "dining out" and "content distribution" continue to grow. As a tangible backing, domestic distribution platforms are still on an expansion trend.
For example, Netflix's membership in Japan exceeded 10 million as of 2024, driven by hits of domestic content such as anime.Reuters

5. Voices of "Polarization" Seen on Social Media

Typical Reaction Tones (Summary)

• Congestion Avoidance Group: "Kyoto is too crowded. Go to rural areas in the off-season." "Accommodation prices are too high."

• Correction Expectation Group: "Use tax revenue to improve facilities like toilets and trash bins." "Implement reservation systems and time slot dispersal."

• Reverse Inflow Group: "Avoiding Kyoto, people are visiting Nara, Shiga, and Mie." "The 'empty and cheap' appeal of Hokuriku and San'in."

• Skeptical Group: "Will raising the accommodation tax for luxury stays really curb congestion?" (Summary from discussions on overseas forums about Kyoto's accommodation tax)Reddit

On social media, rumors about a "major earthquake prediction" in July affecting travel demand from Asia spread, with reports indicating a decline in visits from Hong Kong and South Korea that month. Tourism demand is easily swayed by the "mood of X" in this era.Reuters

6. Prescriptions for Businesses and Local Governments

(1) View the "Surface" of Supply and Demand
Measures for Kyoto and Mount Fuji tend to remain as symptomatic treatments that suppress congestion "points." It is necessary to combine time and area-specific limits, dispersed reservations via apps, and price guidance based on actual measurements.AP News

(2) Secure "Seats" for Local Customers
Lock a certain number of weekends as "fixed-price slots for residents and nearby areas," and do not release them at the last minute. Design membership loyalty (free parking, late check-out, in-house credit) specifically for "domestic customers."

(3) Redefine the Value of Travel
The growth in streaming and dining out is because "cost-effective immersive time" is valued. Accommodations should also promote "immersion in the stay" (private hot springs without crowds, guaranteed quietness, room acoustics for reading and music).

(4) Weave Stories Outside the "Golden Route"
Visualize the tranquility of Hokuriku, San'in, and Tohoku through time and seasonal perspectives—sunsets, morning mist, snowlight. While current inbound flows are concentrated in Tokyo, Kyoto, and Osaka, proposing surrounding excursions can capture both domestic and international interests.The Times

(5) Design Chosen for Reasons Other Than Price
Create a sense of "value for money" through differentiated experience value, such as reducing the burden on families with children (free stroller rental, breakfast queue avoidance slots) and optimizing for fan activities and workations.

7. Tips for Residents

• "Empty × Value for Money": Castle towns on the Sea of Japan side, hot spring villages in basins, nighttime illuminations of Japanese gardens in San'in.

• Avoiding Congestion: Visit places with limited routes, such as mountains and temples, on weekday mornings or evenings. The Yoshida Route on Mount Fuji, with reservations and limits, tends to be crowded, so consider alternative routes and equipment plans.AP News

• Price Measures: Focus on midweek days, Tuesday to Thursday, when travel demand is more dispersed. Choose accommodations where the per-night rate decreases with consecutive stays.
  
  
  

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Summary:

The "domestic customer departure" of Japanese people is not just about saving money. The historic recovery of inbound tourism (due to a weak yen), rising accommodation prices in major cities, congestion stress, and a preference for "streaming and dining out" are collectively advancing the **polarization of travel demand (localized concentration and broad slowdown)**. Measures for Kyoto and Mount Fuji have begun, but the key is to redesign travel congestion and pricing through "time, area, and experiential value."Reuters

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Reference Data and Sources (Cited in the Text)

• Trends in Visitors to Japan from 2024 to 2025 (Announced by JNTO): Record Highs Updated.Reuters

• Kyoto's Overtourism Measures (Prohibition of Entry to Private Roads in Gion, etc.).The Guardian

• Reports and Reactions on the Significant Increase in Kyoto's Accommodation Tax.The Times

• Mount Fuji's Yoshida Route Fee Introduction and Number Limitations.AP News

• "Earthquake Rumor" and Its Impact on Travel Demand Became a Topic.Wikipedia

• Expansion of Streaming Consumption (Netflix's Reach in Japan).Reuters