Is Trump Considering Reevaluating Marijuana Regulations? Neither Legal Nor Illegal? What Federal "Rescheduling" Changes and What It Doesn't

1. What is Happening (As of August 11, 2025)

"Reclassifying marijuana to a 'less dangerous category'"—this statement has stirred Washington following a fundraising dinner. According to multiple media outlets, the Trump administration is considering moving marijuana from the federal Schedule I (same level as heroin) to Schedule III. It is reported that Kim Rivers, CEO of Trulieve, was present at the event and advocated for removing barriers to research and medical use. The administration has stated that they are considering this based on "the best interests," without denying the decision. Wall Street JournalReutersThe Guardian

This "reclassification" topic is not new. Reports suggest that the President himself has mentioned "looking at" it, indicating that discussions are indeed progressing within the administration. Marijuana Moment

2. Background—The Practical Process is Already Underway

In fact, the technical process of reclassification began under the Biden administration. In August 2023, the HHS recommended to the DEA that "Schedule III is appropriate," and by May 2024, the DEA proposed a rule. However, the public hearing scheduled for January 2025 was postponed, heavily influenced by politics. moritzlaw.osu.eduDEA

Furthermore, there are moves in the House to include provisions that prohibit the Department of Justice from using funds for reclassification or declassification, making the final resolution complex. Reports indicate that the newly appointed DEA chief did not explicitly prioritize "reclassification." Cannabis Business Times

3. What Will Change / What Won't

Even if it becomes Schedule III, it won't mean "nationwide legalization for recreational use." However, it is likely to lower barriers to research, strengthen the legitimacy of medical use, and free businesses from the constraints of tax code 280E (impacting profit margins and financing). For the industry, it could be a game-changer in terms of "significantly lowering institutional costs," but issues like the patchwork of state laws and interstate commerce remain. Fox Businessmoritzlaw.osu.edu

4. Why Now?—Donations, Public Opinion, and the "80-20"

Media outlets point out that a high-donation dinner was the stage for the emergence of this "consideration." The industry is actively approaching the administration, strengthening its influence through advertising, lobbying, and hiring. Meanwhile, the administration has an election strategy that prioritizes "80-20 cultural issues," and marijuana is a theme with broad support. Wall Street JournalThe Daily Beast

Public opinion data supports this. In Pew and Gallup's time-series surveys, support for legalization consistently remains in the majority, especially strong among younger generations and independents. Pew Research CenterGallup.com

5. Social Media Reactions (Pros, Cons, and Temperature Differences)

• "Too Late but a Step Forward" Camp
  In timelines leaning towards investors and the industry, there are many voices expecting progress in research, medical use, and tax improvements. While sharing explanatory videos of sector ETFs like MSOS, there's a cautiously optimistic mood asking, "Is this the real deal this time?" X (formerly Twitter)

• "Riding on Biden's Foundation" Camp
  On r/politics, posts claiming "the reclassification process was already underway during the Biden administration; it's stealing credit" are gaining traction. Reddit

• "Reclassification is Not Enough" Camp
  Activists are advocating for "complete removal from the schedule (deschedule)." On r/weedstocks, investor comments like "Reclassification is welcome but not the goal" can be seen. Reddit+1

• "Moved by Donations" Skeptics
  Posts expressing caution towards high fundraising and industry lobbying are also seen. The WSJ/Daily Beast reports' "fundraising dinner" context is quoted, spreading skepticism about the neutrality of the policy. Wall Street JournalThe Daily Beast

6. Opposition and Counterarguments

Typical opposition arguments include public health concerns like "addiction, impact on youth, and deterioration of traffic safety," and political arguments criticizing "hasty decisions for tax revenue." The WSJ reports that opposition groups (such as SAM) are increasing their advertising and lobbying efforts with the administration. Medical and policy journals continue to publish articles urging caution on reclassification. Wall Street JournalMedicalEconomics

7. Industry and Investment Perspective

For companies, just removing the "federal shackles" can make a difference in capital costs and post-tax profits, making reclassification a strong tailwind. Recently, sector stocks have been highly volatile, easily swayed by news headlines in the short term. Investment media and industry papers have repeatedly pointed out that "institutional progress = potential for mid-to-long-term rebound." However, the scenario can easily change depending on congressional actions and regulatory personnel. MJBizDaily

8. Checkpoints from Here

1. Rescheduling of the DEA's Procedure Calendar(Reannouncement of the postponed public hearing)

2. Fate of the Congressional "Budget Rider"(Whether it restricts DOJ's enforcement authority)

3. Voices of Administration Officials(Statements from the President, COS, Attorney General, DEA Chief)

4. Alignment with State Laws(Interstate commerce and easing of banking services require separate legislation)
   —These four points are where we want to measure the "seriousness." DEACannabis Business Times

9. Conclusion—The "Seismic Shift in Regulation" Has Begun

Reclassification is not "full legalization," but it lightens the federal burden in terms of research, medical, and tax aspects. The process has already been in motion since the previous administration, and now it depends on the political climate. The temperature difference on social media is significant, but the long-term trend in public opinion is one-directional. The remaining question is when and how far the administration will go—that is the key point. Pew Research Center

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