The Year Streaming Surpasses TV and Radio: What Germany's Predictions Reflect About the Future of Japanese Media

I come home and turn on the TV. However, instead of choosing a program that's currently being broadcast, I opt for a video streaming app. While commuting, instead of tuning into a radio frequency, I play music or audio programs on my smartphone.

These changes in daily life are about to reshape the flow of money in the media industry.

According to an article published by Germany's FOCUS on October 21, 2026, the private media organization VAUNET predicts that the revenue from video and audio streaming will surpass that of traditional services like TV and radio for the first time that year.

However, this is not simply a matter of "more people watching streaming than TV." And even if the streaming market grows, it doesn't mean that all companies delivering programs and music will prosper.

What emerges from this prediction is the issue of revenue concentration that progresses alongside the shift to streaming.

"The first reversal" refers to revenue, not viewing time

The forecast introduced by FOCUS anticipates that Germany's streaming revenue in 2026 will be about 8.6 billion euros, accounting for 52% of the audio-visual media market. The share, which was 26% in 2019, is expected to double over seven years.

The total market revenue is expected to increase by 1.8% year-on-year to approximately 16.3 billion euros. The growth is supported by increased income from video and audio streaming.

It's important to understand the meaning of these numbers.

This "52%" is not a percentage of viewership, user numbers, or viewing time. It is a revenue forecast obtained through advertising and paid services. Also, it doesn't cover the entire media industry, including newspapers and publishing.

Therefore, it cannot be interpreted as "more than half of the time people spend on media is now on streaming" or "TV's social role has been reduced to less than half."

Nonetheless, the shift in the revenue center is significant. It changes where funds for selling ads, acquiring content, and creating new programs are concentrated.

Broadcast advertising declines, streaming advertising to grow by double digits

Organizing the main forecast figures from the original article reveals the difference in momentum between traditional services and streaming.

※All figures are VAUNET forecasts reported by FOCUS. Amounts are rounded.

It's noteworthy that the expansion of the streaming market is not solely due to monthly subscriptions. Video streaming advertising is expected to grow by 15%, and audio streaming advertising by 10%, both showing double-digit growth.

Streaming is a service where users pay fees and a place where advertisers reach viewers.

From the user's perspective, there may be an increased possibility of choosing cheaper plans, but the relationship between fees and advertising becomes complex. This is because the fee to join a service and the fee to reduce ads for a more comfortable viewing experience become separately considered.

As streaming expands, "under what conditions it can be viewed" becomes as important as "what can be watched" for viewers.

72% of streaming ads go to four companies—market expansion benefits are not equal

In this report, the number "72%" is as important as the majority figure.

According to the original article, 72% of Germany's video streaming advertising revenue is concentrated among four companies: Alphabet, Amazon, ByteDance, and Meta.

This is not the entire video streaming revenue or all subscription income,but the percentage in the category of video streaming advertising.

Frank Giersberg, Executive Director of VAUNET, also points out the issue that private media operators are not sufficiently capturing the growth of the advertising market.

What can be inferred from this is the difficulty of the strategy that "switching from broadcasting to streaming will solve everything."

Making programs available online and earning sufficient revenue from that viewership are not the same. If other companies control the entry points for gathering viewers and the sales channels for advertising, even if the content becomes popular, the revenue for the creators may not increase in the same proportion.

While responding to streaming is necessary, it alone does not stabilize management. Rather, it increasingly raises the question of where to connect with viewers and how to secure income.

Internet advertising surpasses half in Japan too, but with different metrics from Germany

This change is not a distant story for Japanese readers either.

According to Dentsu's "2025 Japan Advertising Expenditure" announced in March 2026, Japan's internet advertising expenditure is 4.0459 trillion yen, accounting for 50.2% of the total advertising expenditure, surpassing half for the first time.

However, the "52%" in Germany differs in terms of aggregation targets. Germany's figure is the share of revenue, including advertising and subscriptions in the audio-visual sector, while Japan's figure is the percentage of internet advertising expenditure in total advertising expenditure. Comparing the two does not determine which country is progressing more in the shift to streaming.

Nonetheless, there is a commonality in the shift of advertising focus to the internet.

In domestic detailed analysis, video advertising in 2025 is expected to increase by 21.8% year-on-year to 1.0275 trillion yen, surpassing 1 trillion yen for the first time. It is further predicted to increase by 14.7% to 1.1783 trillion yen in 2026.

On the other hand, there is room for growth in TV-derived content. According to Dentsu's aggregation, TV media-related video advertising expenditure in 2025 was 80.5 billion yen, a 23.3% increase year-on-year.

In other words, making TV programs available for streaming does not mean that the production capability of TV itself becomes unnecessary. In Japan, the focus is likely to be on where to deliver the created content and how to connect it to revenue, rather than a binary choice between broadcasting or streaming.

Reactions on social media: Confusion over monthly fees and ads

The growth of the market and the increase in user satisfaction are separate issues.

On the overseas bulletin board-style SNS Reddit, complaints about the fees and ads of streaming services have been posted.

In a post on "r/Anticonsumption" on September 9, 2026, users expressed doubts about the system where they have to watch ads despite paying a monthly fee. The gist of the post was that streaming might be drifting away from the ease and comfort once expected.

Meanwhile, another post on "r/nosurf" shared an experience where, after reviewing contracts, the user was paying over $50 a month for multiple services while their total viewing time in the past month was about six hours.

This poster mentioned a plan to cancel other services while keeping the music service they usually use and switch video services monthly, watching what they want and then moving on.

There are two different complaints here.

One is the dissatisfaction that the amount paid does not match the viewing experience. The other is the burden of maintaining contracts that are rarely used to avoid missing desired content.

However, these are not direct reactions to the German forecast article but public posts about streaming services in general. They are personal experiences and opinions, not representative survey results of users in Japan or Germany.

Even considering these limitations, the gap between "having a service contract" and "fully enjoying it" is a familiar issue for Japanese viewers as well.

Instead of waiting for "people who don't cancel," aim for a service that makes them "want to come back"

The monthly contract switching seen on social media is a user behavior that streaming businesses need to consider.

If viewers do not necessarily stay with one service for long, it is necessary not only to increase the number of subscribers but also to deliver sufficient satisfaction during the period they use it.

Is it easy to find the content you want to watch? Are the conditions of fees and ads clear? Is there a reason to continue paying? Will those who once left want to return for the next piece of content?

These points will become as important as the number of contents.

For Japanese viewers, it is not necessary to have all services contracted at all times to enjoy streaming. By simply comparing what they actually watch with the fees being charged, the way they use the service can change.

The strength of streaming, "being able to choose for yourself," applies not only to selecting works but also to how you hold contracts.

Beyond the majority, the real competition

The prediction that streaming revenue will surpass traditional services in Germany marks a milestone in the media market. However, simply viewing it as "the defeat of TV, the victory of the internet" overlooks the crucial aspects.

Even if the streaming market grows, revenue can concentrate among a few major players. Even if advertising revenue increases, viewer dissatisfaction may also rise. Even if access to content becomes easier, managing contracts and fees can become burdensome.

For Japanese media companies and content creators, the challenge is shifting from merely streaming to what comes next.

Ensuring that viewers can continue to use the service with satisfaction. And that the creators of works and programs receive income that leads to the next production.

What will determine the competition after streaming becomes the main player is not just the size of the revenue but whether these two can be balanced.

Sources and References

1. FOCUS "Prognose: Streaming überholt erstmals klassische Medien"
   Published on October 21, 2026. Based on VAUNET's autumn forecast, it provides sources for the size of Germany's streaming market, growth rates in each sector, and the concentration of advertising revenue among the four major tech companies.
   https://www.focus.de/panorama/welt/prognose-streaming-ueberholt-erstmals-klassische-medien_7ba7c80c-12ff-4cec-ae20-58ed8584baf0.html

2. Dentsu "2025 Japan Advertising Expenditure"
   Source for Japan's internet advertising expenditure of 4.0459 trillion yen, accounting for 50.2% of total advertising expenditure, and TV media-related video advertising expenditure.
   https://www.dentsu.co.jp/news/release/2026/0305-011003.htmlDentsu website

3. Dentsu Digital and others "2025 Japan Advertising Expenditure Internet Advertising Media Expenditure Detailed Analysis"
   Source for the domestic video advertising market of 1.0275 trillion yen in 2025 and the forecast value of 1.1783 trillion yen in 2026.
   https://www.dentsudigital.co.jp/news/release/services/2026-0305-000300Dentsu Digital

4. Reddit・r/Anticonsumption: Post expressing doubts about paid streaming and ads
   Referenced to introduce dissatisfaction with bearing both monthly fees and ads. It is an individual opinion and not a public opinion survey.
   https://www.reddit.com/r/Anticonsumption/comments/1wc0xmh/if_were_already_paying_for_streaming_why_are_we/reddit.com

5. Reddit・r/nosurf: Post reviewing streaming contract expenses and usage time
   Source for the experience of spending over $50 a month, approximately six hours of monthly viewing, and the policy of switching services monthly. The description is self-reported by the poster.
   https://www.reddit.com/r/nosurf/comments/1q3k0wx/cancelled_all_my_streaming_subscriptions_and/