The Beginning of the End for Ultra-Cheap E-Commerce: What the Growth Slowdown of Temu & Shein Reflects About the Reality of E-Commerce in 2026

1. The First Brake on Temu and Shein, Once Seen as "Invincible"

In recent years, the names most impactful in the e-commerce industry have been Temu and Shein.
Clothes and gadgets costing just a few hundred yen arrive at your home with free shipping, and further discounts are offered through coupons and roulette games—this experience has become more than just "price disruption" for many consumers; it has turned into a form of entertainment akin to a game.

However, this "super-cheap game" is finally starting to face a realistic brake.

According to the latest white paper from ECDB, which provides e-commerce market data, the annual growth rate of fast-fashion giant Shein is expected to settle at about 6.5% by 2026, and Temu at around 13%.openPR.de

Shein has reportedly maintained an average growth of over 70% for about a decade, and Temu has recorded an "unprecedented" growth of over 500% annually since its launch, but the curve on the graph is finally starting to shift to a more gradual upward slope.

Even just looking at the numbers, the growth rate is still impressive, but it's no wonder the expression "end of hyper-growth" is being used.

2. Still a "Too Large" Presence

Even with slowed growth, the presence of both companies remains significant.
Research in Germany indicates that Shein and Temu are not just "trendy items," but are already establishing themselves as top players in e-commerce. For example, in the joint survey "E-Commerce-Markt Deutschland 2025" by EHI and ECDB, Shein is said to have entered the top 10 in Germany's online shop sales rankings, with sales in 2024 reaching approximately 1.1 billion euros, an 18% increase from the previous year.ChannelPartner

Another analysis reports that the two companies have generated an estimated total of about 3.3 billion euros in sales just in Germany, reaching a scale that can no longer be called "niche Chinese sites."ハンデルスブラット

In other words, what is happening now is not that

"a small player has stalled," but rather
"a giant platform is returning to 'normal growth'"

indicating a change in market structure.

3. The Biggest Factor in Slowed Growth: "Headwinds from Tariffs and Regulations"

So why is growth being braked now?
The keywords are **"tariffs," "regulations," and "trust."**

(1) The End of the De Minimis Rule

What has supported the price disruption of Temu and Shein until now is the "de minimis rule" applied in the EU and other regions.
This system exempts import duties on goods below a certain amount, facilitating a large influx of small shipments from China into the EU.

However, the EU is accelerating the review of this rule. According to reports from Austria, discussions are progressing towards applying tariffs even on small imports below 150 euros, and it is expected that there will be stronger headwinds on the price front for cheap products from China.kurier.at

"Without tariff advantages, the 'unbelievable cheapness' of Temu and Shein cannot be sustained."
This structure itself is beginning to waver.

(2) Pressure on Dark Patterns and Display Rules

Another major factor isregulation on how platforms "sell."

The German consumer organization vzbv issued a warning to Temu in 2024, stating that "the display of discount rates is misleading" and "the game-like UI encourages excessive purchasing."Verbraucherzentrale Bundesverband

The EU's Digital Services Act (DSA) has already shown a strict attitude towards such "dark patterns," and it is expected that monitoring will intensify down to the level of algorithms and UI design in the future.

Regarding Shein, the complaint platform Reklamation24 raised alarms, stating that complaints about the sale of non-returnable "Werbeartikel (advertising items)" in a misleading manner "jumped more than fourfold in just a few days."reklamation24.de

These movements indicate that the super-cheap e-commerce sector is being dragged into a phase where "how they sell" is questioned, not just "as long as it sells."

(3) Increasing Trust Costs

Both companies, which have carved out a market with low prices, are seeing their costs to regain trust swell as complaints, controversies, and suspicions about environmental and human rights issues rise.

・Customer support for quality issues and delivery delays
・Inspection systems to meet safety regulations
・Disclosure and improvement regarding the environment and supply chain
・Public relations responses to negative reports

All of these were areas that could once be "ignored," but now that regulations, public opinion, and social media are exerting pressure in unison,ignoring them only leads to the erosion of brand value.

The slowdown in growth indicated by ECDB's analysis can be read not only as a simple market saturation but also as a reflection of the increasing "invisible costs" that make it difficult to step on the accelerator of cash-rich offensives.openPR.de

4. Reactions on Social Media Are Divided into "Three Perspectives"

The news of the growth slowdown is being discussed from various angles on social media. Here, we organize thethree typical perspectives that emerge from actual reports, complaint data, and industry community discussions.

① Consumer Perspective: "Cheapness is Justice, but It's Also Getting a Bit Scary"

On X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok, reactions like the following are prominent, especially among younger users.

• "If prices go up due to tariffs, is there any point in bulk buying from Temu anymore?"

• "It's so cheap that it's actually unsettling. I feel like there are more clothes lately that are 'done after one wear.'"

• "Including shipping and handling fees, isn't someone being massively exploited...?"

Complaint platforms like Reklamation24 are also accumulating dissatisfaction over non-returnable items and quality issues,making visible the voices of users who feel they "jumped at the cheapness but ended up losing out." reklamation24.de

For this demographic, Temu and Shein remain "the first choice for shopping," yet they are becoming an **"unstable favorite that could be switched at any time."**

② Existing Retail/Brand Perspective: "The Game Is Finally Getting Fair"

On the other hand, on business social networks like LinkedIn, professionals in the e-commerce industry are calmly analyzing the numbers.

• "If tariffs and regulations are in place, European brands can finally stand on the same starting line."

• "The slowdown in Temu and Shein's growth is a chance for domestic brands to compete again on 'value beyond price.'"

• "The reduction in their advertising, which has dominated the advertising market, could be a tailwind for other brands to improve acquisition costs."

Indeed, some analyses point out thatTemu's sharp brake on advertising expenses has slightly calmed the online advertising competition among other e-commerce players. LinkedIn

For existing players, the slowdown of Temu and Shein is not just "someone else's problem" but is positively seen as a timing to rebuild marketing strategies.

③ Activist/Social Perspective: "This Is Just the Entry Point to Environmental and Human Rights Issues"

Environmental NGOs, fair trade-promoting organizations, and sustainability-oriented influencers view the news as a **"trigger to focus on structural issues."**

• "The model of continuously flying clothes worth a few euros from the other side of the world is unsustainable no matter how you look at it."

• "It's not the end just because growth has slowed; we should accelerate discussions on labor conditions and environmental impacts across the entire supply chain."

The EU's move to strengthen tariffs and regulations to curb "Trashcommerce (extremely cheap products like trash)" is also fueling these discussions.neuhandeln.de

In recent years, content visualizing the environmental burden and human rights risks behind "cheap and fast" has spread on social media, and awareness changes are progressing, especially among the so-called "ethical consumption cluster." The slowdown in Temu and Shein's growth is perceived by them as a **"small achievement that is finally beginning to reach."**

5. "Four Insights" Marketers Should Read

The news about Temu & Shein is not just about other companies' trends but is rich in implications for all e-commerce, D2C, and brands. From a marketer's perspective, the following four points are important.

Insight 1: Differentiation by Price Alone Will Inevitably Reach Its Limit Before Regulations and Costs

Tariffs, regulations, complaint handling, environmental considerations...
The paradox that **"the more you aim for the lowest price, the more trust costs accumulate later"** will become apparent in all markets in the future.

• How far can you justify the price difference

• How transparent can you make customer support and return policies

• How much can you face the accountability of the supply chain

An "ultra-cheap strategy" that neglects these will create short-term growth but will be offset by the costs of regulation and backlash in the long term.

Insight 2: The Need to Graduate from Algorithm-Dependent "Toss-in Marketing"

Reports have emerged that Temu demands over 40% discounts from sellers to be displayed at the top by algorithms,neuhandeln.de##HTML_TAG_