The Strongest Rival of a Brand is "Its Past Self" — The Battle Between Luxury Brands and the Secondhand Market: The Rise of New Consumer Trends

1. What's Happening Now

"The strongest competitor for luxury is **“the products we've already sold”"—this statement has entered a phase where it doesn't sound exaggerated. The secondary market (resale) is growing faster than the primary market, and it is projected to expand from $210 to $220 billion to a maximum of $360 billion by 2030. The growth rate is about 10% annually, roughly three times that of the primary market. While primary demand has been slowing for six consecutive quarters, platforms like The RealReal and Fashionphile are maintaining double-digit growth through 2025. The primary reasons for choosing second-hand are price and value retention**, and immediacy. Millennials and Gen Z, tired of price hikes on new items, are operating on the premise of "buy, use, and sell again." Boston Consulting Group

2. "Value Retention Rate" as a KPI

Consumers have started checking the resale value before purchasing. Especially bags are treated as "highly liquid assets," with classics like Speedy and Flap showing high value retention rates. In the 2025 resale data,

• Louis Vuitton Speedy: Stable demand due to diversity in age and specifications and circulation volume

• Chanel Flap: Symbolism across generations

• Hermès Evelyne: Valued for practicality, offering stable returns
  —such "asset-grade" models stand out. It is also symbolic that 40% of second-hand purchases are bags. Business Insider

3. Who Was Pushed Where by Price Increases

Continuous price increases since the pandemic are said to have led to the departure of about 50 million customers. Luxury, which had expanded through the "democratization" of the middle class, is now shifting towards unit price rather than volume, with sales volume decreasing by 20-25%. The segment that departed has moved towards second-hand and challenger brands, with the secondary market taking over the role of the entry-level price range of the primary market. The Wall Street Journal

4. Winning Strategies in the Platform Economy

The reason secondary markets surpass primary ones lies in the overwhelming optimization of UX. Cross-searching inventory, price transparency, shipping and returns, and trust in authenticity. Additionally, AI is entering image judgment and automatic condition description, evolving platforms into "appraisal × inventory finance." According to research company forecasts, the luxury resale market is expected to grow to ¥5.5 trillion by 2029, with AI utilization and mobile UX enhancement being growth drivers. Research and Markets

5. Brand Strategies for "Reinvasion"

Rather than fully entering the secondary market directly, brands are trying to regain control indirectly through reissues, repair/care programs, certified pre-owned, and material updates. Indeed, there is a growing trend to reinterpret classic masterpieces in "current specifications," and visualizing archives has become a marketing asset. Along with strengthening price and inventory control in the primary market, product planning based on resale value is spreading. The Wall Street Journal

6. Regulatory Gaze: From Price Maintenance to Transparency

In Europe, in October 2025, major companies will face fines over restrictions on resale prices. While price rigidity protects primary profits, it is also seen as narrowing consumer choices, leading to increased regulatory scrutiny. The secondary market functions as a price discovery venue, countering excessive price hikes in the primary market with a market counter. Reuters

7. Voices on Social Media: The "Real Feel" of Consumers

— "With price hikes on new items, second-hand is the 'right choice'": On handbag boards, voices continue to say "can't justify full price" and "choose with second-hand in mind." There is also a growing return to mid-tier brands (Coach, Polène, etc.). Reddit
— "Polarization of Value Retention": While some brands and models remain strong, posts also point out declines in brands with excess inventory. Reddit
— "Investment or Consumption": The view of "closet assets" is spreading, but there are many conversations about finding the right time to buy, considering tariffs and economic outlook. Reddit
— "The Reality of Embracing Replicas": The rise of high-quality replicas is sounding the alarm on brand pricing power. Therefore, the primary market is rushing to differentiate with authentication technology and provenance proof. Reddit

8. The Japanese Context: Why It Can Be a "Showcase"

Japan is becoming a "showcase" for cross-border demand due to the combination of strict authentication, good condition, and yen depreciation. C2C platforms like Mercari and Rakuma, vintage stores in Harajuku and Ginza, and department store-certified pre-owned items form an ecosystem. The Asia-Pacific market is also predicted to expand with 8% annual growth. Furthermore, Mercari's overseas expansion is expected to boost international inventory liquidity, accelerating the rotation of the secondary market. ZenMarket

9. What Is the "Winning Pattern"? (Recommendations for Brands)

1. Designing Value Retention as a Product KPI: Design the expected resale price range from the time of launch, optimizing materials, colors, and rarity.

2. Lifecycle Management: Seamlessly integrate purchase→care→trade-in→resale. Expand the primary profit pool with certified pre-owned.

3. UX to Platform Standards: Standardize cross-inventory search, notifications, and price history display.

4. Authenticity × Traceability: Prove "provenance" with AI image judgment + manual inspection + blockchain or digital passports.

5. Strategizing Reissues: Utilize archives as a market verification tool, not just a "catalog." Small batch verification→full-scale investment.

6. Redefining Price Strategy: Focus on long-term LTV over short-term margins. Excessive price hikes result in "sending customers to second-hand." Boston Consulting Group

10. "Usable" Indicators for Users (Buyers)

• Turnover Rate: Days until sale.

• Value Retention Rate: Sale recovery rate against purchase price.

• Circulation Volume × Rarity: Classics have stable demand, limited editions have high volatility.

• Care Costs: Future value changes depending on the presence of a repair network.

• Model-Specific Heat Map: Speedy/Flap/Evelyne have historically been strong, but differences arise in year and specifications. Business Insider

11. Future Map: Secondary Market 3.0

Bain's latest outlook acknowledges short-term uncertainties (inventory adjustments, macro headwinds) while maintaining a bullish stance in the mid-to-long term. Brands that incorporate the cultural shift—from "ownership to operation" and "consumption of goods to consumption of assets"—will become the next protagonists. Second-hand is not "surplus" but the frontline of demand creation. d15k2d11r6t6rl.cloudfront.net