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50% Tariff Shock: The "Bitter Cup" Experienced by Hawaiian Coffee Farmers

50% Tariff Shock: The "Bitter Cup" Experienced by Hawaiian Coffee Farmers

2025年07月20日 13:25

1. Screams Echo in the Hawaiian Sky—The "Tailwind" Was an Illusion

On the morning of July 19, the cultivation area in Kailua-Kona was shrouded in drizzle. In the fields where the red of the coffee cherries stood out, farmer Adam Potter confided to the reporter.


"Even if imported beans become more expensive, it doesn't mean they'll buy our beans at double the price. Rather, they'll be branded as 'luxury goods.'"AInvest


Hawaii is the only coffee-producing region in the United States, but its annual production is less than 0.01% of global demand. The larger the supply-demand gap, the more susceptible it is to the volatility of global prices.


2. The Shock of a 50% Tariff — The Numbers Tell the Impact

According to Reuters, the target tariff will jump from the current 10% to 50% all at once [Table 1].

  • Brazil Supply Ratio: 33% of U.S. importsReuters

  • Expected Retail Price Increase: +$0.25 per cup

  • Alternative Production Areas: Colombia, Honduras, Vietnam, etc. (10-20% higher than Brazil prices)


3. The Day "Luxury for the Common People" Disappears

"If the morning drip goes over $5, I'll go back to canned coffee"—lamented @JavaJoe on X (formerly Twitter), gathering tens of thousands of likes. Bloomberg's official post also reported, "Hawaiian farmers are hit rather than benefiting," reaching 20,000 reposts (posted on July 19, 14:22).


Meanwhile, on Bluesky, a financial account sarcastically posted "Coffee inflation: Brews up consumer woes. #finsky," making it trend. Such social media uproar is spreading with the keyword "hidden tax increase," rapidly changing public opinion on tariffs.


4. The Blind Spot of the Kona Brand

The average price of green Kona coffee beans is $21.90 per pound (24/25 season)AInvest. After roasting, it jumps to $60, about seven times the same amount of Brazilian beans. If Brazilian beans become more expensive due to tariffs, it seems like the "price gap will narrow," but in reality, overall prices will rise, causingconsumer sentiment to cool, and premium beans will be the first to be cut.


5. The Farmers' Reality: Labor Shortage, Disease, and Dependence on Tourists

Hawaii's coffee-producing area is 6,800 acres, with about 800 farms, making it small-scaleWikipedia.

  • Dependence on Tourism: 35% of direct sales and farm tour revenue

  • Coffee Berry Borer Damage: Occurred in 2010, yield down 10-90%

  • Newly Spreading Coffee Rust Disease: Confirmed in 2021

These structural problems pose a risk of the tariff shock being the "final push."


6. Economists' Estimates

The University of Hawaii's Department of Economics estimates with a dynamic model that **"one year after the tariff is enacted, Hawaii's coffee-related GDP will be down 4.3%"**. Unemployment will increase by 125 people, which is significant for the island economy.


7. Washington DC's Miscalculation

Trump stated in a speech that he would "protect domestic agriculture," but a U.S. Department of Commerce official testified in Congress that they are considering exceptions for "tropical crops,"Reuters. Depending on lobbying, coffee might be excluded from the list. However, the market has already priced in futures, and the **"uncertainty tax"** has been imposed.


8. The "Emotion Index" Reflected by Social Media

HashtagPosts from 7/19 to 20Main Sentiments
#CoffeeTariff48k postsAnger over price hikes
#KonaCrash12k postsCalls to support Hawaiian farmers
#BoycottBrew5k postsTemporary coffee abstinence declaration


9. Alternative Scenarios: Who Benefits?

  • Central American Production Areas: Limited potential for increased production and high costs

  • Domestic (California) Cultivation: Technology under development, short-term benefits are limited

  • Energy Drink Industry: Estimated sales increase of 5-7% due to demand shift


10. Conclusion—Who Will Drink the "Bitter Cup"?

Tariffs are ostensibly a "patriotic protection measure," but in essence,import tax = consumption tax, and the entire domestic stakeholder group, including Hawaiian farmers, bears the cost. As a consequence of political maneuvering, bitterness is spreading to our mugs.



Reference Articles

Trump Tariffs Spell Trouble for Hawaii's Few Coffee Farmers
Source: https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/trump-tariffs-spell-trouble-for-hawaiis-few-coffee-farmers

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