Peace in Ukraine Contingent on "European Approval" - No to Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan: German Chancellor Scholz Indicates "Europe's Line"

1. Merz's Remark in Johannesburg

"War should not be ended by major powers over the heads of the countries involved."

At the G20 Summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made this statement, drawing attention from the audience and media worldwide.Aktiencheck

He was referring to the "28-point peace plan to end the Ukraine war" proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump (reappearing). Although it is an American proposal, it has been criticized by Ukraine and European sides as being "too pro-Russian" and "forcing unilateral concessions."Reuters

Merz emphasized, "Without Ukraine's consent and Europe's consent, the end of the war is impossible. This is a war happening on the European continent."Aktiencheck

2. What's Inside Trump's "28-Point Peace Plan"

The controversial 28-point peace plan is a proposal by the Trump administration to "end the war at once" following Russia's full-scale invasion. According to reports, its framework is as follows.Reuters

• Ukraine to cede Crimea and vast territories in the east, such as Donetsk and Luhansk, to Russia

• In some areas occupied by Russia, the front line is to be "fixed," effectively acknowledging Russian control

• Limit the Ukrainian military to about 600,000 troops

• Abandon future NATO membership and possession of some long-range weapons

On the other hand, it is said that the plan includes conditions for Russia, such as partial withdrawal and acceptance of ceasefire monitoring, but overall it is evaluated as a "package of concessions" largely aligned with Russian demands.Reuters

Trump himself told the media, "This is not the final proposal," but he is putting strong pressure on Ukraine, saying, "If you don't accept it quickly, the situation will get worse."The Guardian

3. The "Dangerous Déjà Vu" Felt by Europe and Ukraine

In response to this plan, Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed strong concern, saying, "We are being forced into an unbearable choice between giving up sovereignty and freedom or losing our biggest supporter."Reuters

At the G20 in Johannesburg, leaders from Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Nordic countries issued a joint statement, declaring, "This plan requires further work." They are particularly concerned that the restrictions on the Ukrainian military could leave the country vulnerable to future attacks.Aktiencheck

A group of countries, including Europe, Japan, and Canada, submitted a revised proposal to the U.S. administration, clearly stating, "We cannot support a peace that imposes unacceptable unilateral concessions on Ukraine."Deutschlandfunk

On social media, there is a notable criticism of this 28-point plan as "a repeat of the 1938 Munich Agreement." The Munich Agreement was a historic "appeasement policy" where Britain and France allowed Nazi Germany to annex part of Czechoslovakia. As a result, Hitler learned that "concessions could be pushed through," leading to further aggression. There is a strong concern, especially from users in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, that this plan might send the same wrong message to Russia.The Guardian

4. The Background of Merz's Statement: Europe's "Sense of Involvement"

Merz's repeated emphasis on "Europe's consent" has a significance beyond mere diplomatic courtesy.

Firstly, the Ukraine war is a core issue for NATO and EU security, and the peace plan directly impacts NATO's future and Europe's defense posture. The prohibition of NATO membership and military restrictions are not just Ukraine's issues but also affect the operations of NATO and EU forces deployed in the region. Europe has a strong sentiment that "we cannot have the security framework decided by the U.S. and Russia over our heads."Reuters

Secondly, the outcome of this war will set a "precedent" for other potential aggressors, such as China. If a precedent is set where territories are effectively gained through invasion and later internationally recognized in "peace negotiations," it sends a dangerous message to the world that "those who create faits accomplis benefit." This poses a long-term security risk for both Europe and beyond.Reuters

In this context, Merz's emphasis on the dual "involvement" of "Ukraine's consent and Europe's consent" can be seen as a message to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and maintain Europe's position as a security entity.

5. Diverse Reactions on Social Media

Regarding Merz's statement and the 28-point plan, diverse reactions are observed on social media, especially on X (formerly Twitter). Below is a summary of some representative points (not a comprehensive collection of specific posts, but a summary of trends visible from reports and public posts).

(1) Fears of a "Munich Repeat"

Among users in Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states, the phrase "a second Munich Agreement" is repeatedly mentioned, as noted earlier.

• "A peace that cedes territory is not peace, but merely preparation for the next invasion."

• "If Ukraine is sold out now, who's next?"

Such posts are being shared, and the hashtag "No appeasement" is gaining some traction.The Guardian

(2) The Realism of "Ending the War Nonetheless"

On the other hand, posts reflecting a realistic sense of fatigue are noticeable among some users in Europe and the U.S.

• "I understand the ideals, but if the war doesn't end, Ukrainians and Russians will just keep dying."

• "Is complete victory a fantasy? We should seek a compromise, even if it involves some pain."

Such voices prioritizing "ending the war" are also present. The background includes the fatigue of Western societies due to rising energy prices, inflation, and fiscal burdens caused by the prolonged war.

(3) The Conflict Structure of Anti-Trump and Anti-EU

In the U.S., the usual political divide between Trump supporters and anti-Trump forces is directly overlaid on the Ukraine issue on social media.

• The anti-Trump side harshly criticizes it as "Russia's 'wish list'" and "selling out European security."ZDFheute

• Trump supporters, on the other hand, defend the plan, saying, "He's trying to end the war faster than the Democratic administration" and "Europe is just freeloading."

In Europe, supporters of EU-critical populist parties attack mainstream figures like Merz, saying, "Brussels bureaucrats just want to continue the war," while liberals and centrists argue, "If we concede now, the entire European security order will collapse," leading to a complex online debate.Süddeutsche.de

(4) Complex Voices Within Ukraine

On Ukrainian social media, there is a strong majority determination not to give up territory, but due to the exhaustion of the front lines and the harsh economic situation, there are also more complex and conflicted voices reported, suggesting that "if sovereignty and democracy can be protected, some compromise might be unavoidable."AP News

However, publicly supporting significant concessions is extremely difficult in terms of domestic public opinion, and the political risks are high. In that sense, social media discourse becomes a place where "honest feelings" and "official stances" intersect.

6. The Meaning for German Domestic Politics

For Merz, his statement in this situation is a message not only in international politics but also in domestic politics.

Germany has long emphasized "dialogue and economic engagement" in its policy towards Russia. However, since the full-scale invasion, the traditional approach has been forced to undergo significant revisions, such as reassessing energy dependence and increasing defense spending.

As a conservative chancellor, Merz needs to maintain a hardline stance against Russia while also showcasing a posture of seeking a "realistic diplomatic exit." Therefore, instead of outright rejecting the Trump plan, he can be seen as leaving room for negotiation by stating it could serve as a basis for negotiation if revised, while drawing a red line with "Ukraine and Europe's consent."Radio Wuppertal

Domestically, Merz is caught between criticism from right-wing populist forces saying "we should not ruin relations with America" and voices from the left saying "we should reject peace plans premised on territorial concessions."

7. A War Questioning "How It Ends"

The debate over the Ukraine war is no longer a simple binary choice of "to fight or not to fight."

• How far to pursue territorial recovery

• When to enter ceasefire and peace negotiations

• What precedent the conditions will set for future security

These are all questions that shape not only Ukraine but also the entire NATO and EU, and ultimately the global security order.

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