Elon Musk: "High Probability Reality is a Simulation" Statement - Are We Really "In-Game Characters"?

1. The "Quite High Probability" Statement That Emerged on a Podcast

Elon Musk has once again stirred the world's timeline.

The catalyst was the podcast "People by WTF," hosted by Indian entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath. In the latest episode, Musk stated, "The probability that we're living in a simulation is quite high."The Economic Times

According to an article by Sportskeeda, Musk brought up the evolution of games. Once, there were only games like "Pong," which consisted of two paddles and a dot, but now photorealistic 3D games that replicate light and shadow are commonplace. With a VR headset, you can reach out, grab objects, and walk around in a virtual space.Sportskeeda

Extending this trend into the future, Musk believes it's only a matter of time before games indistinguishable from reality are created. If advanced civilizations were to create such simulations in large numbers, "the probability that we're in the 'original world' might actually be low." This is a logic Musk has repeatedly discussed before. At a conference in 2016, he even stated that "the probability of being in base reality is one in a billion."The Verge

This statement, made on an Indian podcast, quickly spread across Asia, reigniting the topic of "Is reality a game?"

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2. What Exactly Is the Simulation Hypothesis?

Behind Musk's statement lies the "simulation hypothesis" proposed by philosopher Nick Bostrom.Wikipedia

In a nutshell, this hypothesis presents a trilemma:

1. Even advanced civilizations cannot technically create simulations with human-level consciousness

2. It is technically possible, but for ethical reasons, such simulations are not created

3. Both technically and ethically, the green light is given, and a vast number of "human simulations" are created

If scenario ③ holds true, then while there is only one "real reality," there would be a vast number of simulation worlds. This suggests that the probability of being "a resident of some simulation" is much higher than "happening to be on the 'real reality' side."Wikipedia

Musk is captivated by this Bostrom-style argument and believes that "the more games evolve, the more persuasive the simulation hypothesis becomes."Vox

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3. Social Media Mixes "Jokes," "Anxiety," and "Philosophy"

Various reactions were observed on X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram regarding this statement. Let's pick up some representative patterns.

(1) People Digesting It with Memes and Jokes

The most noticeable were posts that turned Musk's statement into "jokes."

• "Today's Japan is full of bugs, definitely a debug version of a simulation, right?"

• "Train delays → 'laggy' 'Did the server crash?' explains everything"

• "Musk: 'High probability of sim' Me: 'Then can I inquire about this bad gacha luck with the admins?'"

One post sarcastically noted, "Thanks to Musk reigniting the simulation theory, the entire internet has entered another existential spiral."X (formerly Twitter)

 

Hashtags like "#Matrix" and "#WeAreNPCs" also appeared, suggesting that the attitude of "doubting reality as a joke" functions as a kind of diversion.

(2) "Tech Optimists" Are Rather Excited

On the other hand, tech-oriented accounts express a desire to actually be the ones creating such a future.

• "If humanity can create a game world indistinguishable from reality, that itself would be the greatest art in human history."

• "Whether it's a sim or not, I want to see a future where AI and games merge."

Some posts jokingly mentioned, "If AI is going to dominate movie and game production, then maybe AI will create Simulation Earth Season 2 as well," referencing Musk's comments on the same podcast.medial.app

(3) Critics See It as "Deflecting the Issue Again"

Of course, not everyone is enjoying this.

• "Isn't dealing with Tesla's recalls and X's hate speech issues more of a 'real-world problem' than whether reality is a sim?"

• "Can inequality and environmental issues be dismissed as 'game balance' by claiming it's a simulation?"

Such criticisms are often discussed alongside Musk's repeated similar statements in the past and ongoing debates about platform management.Vox

(4) Philosophy and Science Enthusiasts Dive Deep

Furthermore, those interested in philosophy and science take this opportunity to delve deeper into the discussion.

• "From Descartes' 'evil demon' to Bostrom's simulation, aren't we just repeating the same question?"

• "To what extent does a hypothesis that cannot verify 'being a simulation' hold scientific meaning?"

Many seriously consider whether such a simulation is truly possible, linking to Reddit discussions and papers from the perspectives of probability theory and physical laws.Reddit

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4. What Does Science Say? Views of "Below 50%" and "Almost Impossible"

While some, like Musk, speak of a "quite high probability," there are scientists who take a much more cautious stance.

Astronomer David Kipping re-examined Bostrom's argument using Bayesian probability, concluding that "the probability that we're in a simulation is less than 50% at present." Given the uncertainty of the technical feasibility itself, he argues that it's not overwhelmingly in favor of the simulation side.arXiv

Furthermore, a paper published in 2025 argued that simulating the entire universe or a world at the Earth level with high precision would require "an almost impossibly large amount of resources" in terms of information and energy. It claims that it is practically impossible for an upper universe with the same physical laws as ours to simulate this universe.arXiv

These studies have a cooling effect, suggesting that while the simulation hypothesis is intriguing, it's dangerous to believe it outright.
Musk's statements are catchy, but behind them lies the hard problem of physics and information science: "Can such calculations really be done?"

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5. Why Do We Love the Idea That "It Might Be a Sim"?

Even so, why does Musk's one statement cause such a stir on the internet?

1. A Longing for Technology and the "God's Eye View"
   For game developers and engineers, the idea of "programming the world itself" is the ultimate act of creation.
   If they could one day create a world indistinguishable from reality, they might want to believe that the reality they live in now is also "someone's creation."

2. An Excuse for an Uncontrollable World
   Pandemics, wars, climate change, widening inequality... In the face of a series of uncontrollable events, thinking "this is a game scenario" might provide some relief.
   The popularity of phrases like "a bugged world" or "the admins suck" on social media might be because they mix in a sense of powerlessness and resignation.

3. An Age-Old Question of "Meaning"
   The question "If it's a simulation, does life have meaning?" is essentially an updated version of the age-old philosophical question "Why live?"
   Musk has said he voraciously read philosophy books in search of "meaning" since childhood, and his recent statements seem to be connected to this personal background.The Singju Post
   
   

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6. What Remains Unchanged Regardless of Whether It's a Sim

Looking at it this way, the simulation hypothesis seems to serve as a mirror reflecting our anxieties, hopes, and longing for technology, more than whether it's "true or not."

Even if we are truly in a simulation—

• Whether to be kind to the person in front of you

• Whether to destroy or protect the environment

• Whether to treat others as "NPCs" or respect them as individual subjects

These choices are still left to us.

Whether it's a game or reality, the only commonality is that "the time spent playing" is finite.
If we assume it's a simulation, the question of how to use "this very moment" pierces us even more sharply.

Musk's statement not only imagines "another world" created by AI and games but also poses a very real question: "Then how will you clear this stage you're currently playing?"

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