Conspiracy Theories Can't Be Defeated with "Facts" - When "Debunking" Backfires: Conditions for Effective Communication Against Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracy Theories Become "Places" Rather Than "Mistakes"

"That's a conspiracy theory. Check the fact-check." We often want to end the conversation this way. However, in reality, there are stories that persist despite corrections. In fact, corrections can sometimes fuel the belief and strengthen the unity among believers.

On January 7, Phys.org reported the conclusion of a research project that tackled this "complexity" head-on. The international collaborative research in Europe, REDACT (Researching Europe, Digitalisation and Conspiracy Theories), investigated the forms, content, and social impact of online conspiracy theories. It reported that in the German-speaking regions (Germany, Austria, Switzerland), conspiracy theories often arise locally and form a "complex ecosystem" that includes alternative news sites, print media, and parts of the political realm. Phys.org

Here's the key point. Michael Butter, who led the research team, is cautious about lumping conspiracy theories together with "disinformation" or "fake news." Conspiracy theories are not merely incorrect information; they provide a sense of belonging to those who believe in them and contribute to identity formation. Therefore, simply "correcting with facts" does not unravel them—this perspective overturns the premise of countering conspiracy theories. Phys.org

Six Million Posts Demonstrate the Limits of "Debunking"

The German-speaking team of REDACT traced posts using keywords related to conspiracy theories and collected approximately six million from X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, Instagram, Telegram between 2019 and 2024. After quantitative analysis, they conducted qualitative analysis, including literary research methods, to delve into "nuances of language." Phys.org

The important aspect here is not viewing conspiracy theories solely as an "issue of information accuracy." Conspiracy theories have the power to "simplify the world while seemingly explaining it." They divide enemies and allies, convert coincidences into intentions, and provide "understandable narratives" to complex social anxieties. These narratives become the passwords of the community. Even when confronted with facts, the structure protects the worldview itself.

Furthermore, the research points out that "not all conspiracy theories have the same level of danger." In the German-speaking regions, discussions often become alarmist and one-sided, which negatively impacts countermeasure projects, according to Butter. If everything is attacked with the same intensity, countermeasures become "addicted to righteousness," leading to exhaustion and backlash. Phys.org

"Closing It Down Won't End It"—The Cause Lies in "Social Conditions"

So, what should be done? The conclusion of REDACT is surprisingly pragmatic. There is no universal model. Therefore, strategies must be adapted to "national and regional contexts," "the age of the believing demographic," and "the media environment in circulation." Phys.org

An article summarizing King's College London (KCL) explains that the background to the spread of conspiracy theories includes a "feedback loop" of media coverage, political opportunism, protest movements, and social media algorithms. Even when the media treats it as "wrong," it promotes visualization and dissemination, amplified by algorithms, utilized by politicians and movements, and further pursued by the media—this cycle occurs. kcl.ac.uk

The KCL article also points out that conspiracy theories do not arise solely from "distrust," but that legitimate concerns held by individuals (such as worries about restrictions on freedom) are "converted" into alternative narratives. In other words, the adoption of conspiracy theories should be seen not as a cause but as a "symptom" of more complex social conditions. Phys.org

"Short-term Funding" and "Bureaucratic Nightmares" Plague Countermeasure Sites

The research team interviewed organizations (government agencies, educational groups, family support initiatives, etc.) working on conspiracy theory and misinformation countermeasures in various countries and analyzed the realities on the ground. The challenges that emerged are mundane but critical.

Butter highlights structural issues such as (1) projects based on outdated assumptions, (2) funding that is short-term and inflexible, and (3) excessive time spent on reports and bureaucratic procedures. Even though countermeasures are "good things," poor design makes them "unsustainable." Phys.org

Furthermore, in Germany, while there are many programs for high school students, older generations are more susceptible to conspiracy theories, so programs should be expanded to other school types and for older adults, according to researcher Mara Plecoma. Phys.org

This is not a matter for Japanese readers to ignore either, as confining information education to "for children" makes it difficult to stop the chain of misinformation within families and communities.

Reactions on Social Media: Limited Spread but Clear Division of Opinions

As a fact, at the time of retrieval, the relevant page on Phys.org had 0 comments in the comments section and 0 shares displayed on the page, indicating that the article itself has not yet been widely disseminated. Phys.org

However, the theme (countering conspiracy theories) itself is an area repeatedly debated on social media, and reactions tend to split along the lines of the issues raised by the article.

• "Hitting with Facts is Counterproductive" Camp
  This stance argues for "building relationships over corrections" and "addressing the fears and belonging needs of the other party." It aligns well with the research's explanation that conspiracy theories are tied to worldviews and lifestyles. Phys.org

• "Concern that Countermeasures Become a Pretext for 'Censorship'" Camp
  This camp warns of the danger of suppressing dissent and minority opinions under the guise of "countering conspiracy theories." As KCL states, if political and media involvement strengthens the loop, the transparency of regulation and operation is questioned. kcl.ac.uk

• "Institutional Design Comes First" Camp
  This perspective is concerned with the exhaustion of the field due to short-term grants and rigid evaluation criteria, directly connecting to the "funding and administrative burden" issues raised by the research. Phys.org

• "Adults/Elderly Over Youth" Camp
  Voices argue that school education alone is insufficient and that "lifelong information literacy" is needed, including in communities, workplaces, and healthcare settings. The research side also clearly proposes expanding the target audience. Phys.org

*The above bullet points are not quotes from individual posts on the relevant Phys.org article but are editorial summaries of "reactions likely to occur on social media to the issues addressed in this article" (due to the limited response volume on the page itself). Phys.org

So How Should We Talk—"Unravel" Rather Than "Win"

REDACT challenges us to free conspiracy theory countermeasures from "imposing the correct answer." What the other party is protecting might not be fragments of information but "their own place." If so, what's needed is not the pleasure of debunking but creating an environment where things can unravel.

And this should not be left to individual efforts alone. Support tailored to national and regional contexts, sustainable funding, and institutional design to keep the field running. The stance of looking for the "cause" of conspiracy theories on the side of society is much more challenging than comfortably condemning and ending it. However, it is likely the shortcut. Phys.org