The Hidden "Uncounted Waiting Children" Behind the "Zero Waiting List for Childcare" — Unmet Childcare Needs Not Reflected in Numbers and International Comparisons

1. Introduction

"Zero waiting list for childcare." This powerful phrase shines as a beacon of hope for working parents. However, behind the zero, children known as "hidden waiting list children" continue to stand at the gates.

Since they are not included in the statistics, the issue is difficult to visualize. This article highlights the contradictions in Japan's childcare policy by examining the definition and scale of hidden waiting list children, the realities faced by parents, and comparisons with other countries.

2. The Definition of "Zero Waiting List" and the Trick of Numbers

According to the national definition, children who applied for licensed childcare facilities but could not enter are excluded from the waiting list if they only wish for specific facilities or are not actively seeking employment. Therefore, even if a municipality achieves "zero," in reality, childcare needs are unmet, and invisible burdens continue within households.

In a survey of Tokyo's 23 wards and the Tama area, there was a clear discrepancy between the national definition of 264 children and 11,965 hidden waiting list children.jcptogidan.gr.jp

3. Latest Data: Cases in Osaka City and Sakai City

In April 2025, Osaka City announced zero waiting list children for the first time since the start of the survey. However, they simultaneously disclosed 2,528 "children on hold," indicating that achieving "zero" does not mean the issue is resolved.city.osaka.lg.jpmainichi.jp In neighboring Sakai City, 716 unused children were specified, making it difficult to grasp the actual numbers due to differences in definitions.sakai-times.com

4. Collapse of Career Plans: Parents' "Impossibility"

According to a survey by the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, about half of working individuals with career plans before childbirth experienced changes or loss of plans after childbirth.dlri.co.jp Many are forced to rely on grandparents, switch to telework, work shorter hours, or leave their jobs due to the inability to secure daycare. High childcare costs and a shortage of childcare workers also push parents into becoming "hidden waiting list children" themselves.

5. Invisible Burdens and Child Development

In households with hidden waiting list children, it is difficult to receive group care or specialized care tailored to growth. When parents give up working, household income decreases, affecting investments in children's education. The opportunity gap in early education and socialization may lead to disparities in academic performance and income.

6. Current Overseas Situations and Comparison with Japan

6-1. United States: Childcare Deserts

In the United States, about 51% of residents live in areas with a shortage of daycare, known as "childcare deserts."childcaredeserts.orgft.com The average cost exceeds college tuition, with a strong reliance on private childcare.

6-2. France: Crèche Competition

In the Paris metropolitan area, the chance of winning a spot in a public crèche is less than 50%, with low-income households prioritized even in dual-income families.eurochild.org Families that miss out rely on nannies or private crèches, increasing their financial burden.

6-3. Australia: Multiple Waitlists

According to surveys, 65% of families are registered on waiting lists for more than six facilities for 18 months.abc.net.au Even in suburban areas, the shortage is severe, delaying mothers' return to work.

6-4. Nordic Countries: Municipal Guarantees and Subsidies

In Nordic countries like Sweden, the "right to childcare" is upheld, obligating municipalities to provide childcare slots within 3-4 months. Fees are income-linked with a set cap, promoting gender-equal employment.nordics.infonhwstat.org

7. Why Does the Gap Arise?

8. Proposals for Solutions

1. Unified Definition and Disclosure
   ・Include children on hold in the national standard, and municipalities should disclose monthly.
   
   
   

2. Expansion of Small-Scale and Company-Led Childcare
   ・Improve the treatment of childcare workers to ensure quality, not just increase admission numbers.
   
   
   

3. Flexible Parental Leave and Reemployment Support
   ・Prevent "career discontinuity" with partial leave and reskilling training.
   
   
   

4. Setting Caps on Childcare Costs and Benefits
   ・Support low to middle-income groups with income-linked caps and benefits like in Nordic countries.
   
   
   

5. Promotion of Regional Childcare Sharing
   ・Introduce diverse systems from other countries, such as Australia's family daycare system.
   
   

9. Conclusion

The goal of "zero waiting list children" is merely a milestone. It is essential to design systems that go beyond the magic of numbers and resonate with the real-life experiences of parents and children. Looking abroad, some countries have shortened waiting periods and achieved a balance between career and childcare by increasing public funding and transparency. In Japan, it is urgent to improve the treatment of childcare workers, expand childcare slots, and revise definitions. Making "hidden waiting list children" visible and reconstructing childcare as infrastructure are keys to addressing the declining birthrate and achieving a gender-equal society.