"Entering the Era of 'Steak as a Reward'? Beef Prices Reach Record Highs in the U.S."

1. What's Happening—"Expensive but Selling" Beef

In the summer of 2025, beef prices in the United States reached unprecedented heights. Ground beef, a staple on the dinner table, hit a record high of $6.32 per pound in August. The inflation rate for beef and veal rose by 13.9% year-on-year, far exceeding the overall inflation rate of 2-3%. Despite this, voices in the sales field overwhelmingly say, "It's expensive, but sales are not dropping." The persistent demand is further pushing up the price "ceiling." FRED

2. Five Pressures Driving Up Prices

(1) Historical Herd Reduction
Drought and high costs have delayed herd replenishment, bringing U.S. cattle numbers to their lowest level "since 1951." Cattle, which take at least several years from breeding to shipment, cannot be increased instantly by flipping a switch. The supply is structurally tight. fb.org

(2) Border Risk (Screwworm)
In the summer of 2025, the "New World Screwworm," a fly that parasitizes livestock, was found in northern Mexico, prompting the U.S. to halt livestock imports at southern ports. If the influx of cattle stops, domestic prices are likely to rise further. USDA

(3) Brazil Tariff "Double Rocket"
The U.S. imposed an additional 50% tariff on Brazilian products. Combined with existing taxes, the effective tax rate reached 76.4%, directly impacting the cost of trimmings for hamburgers. nefb.org

(4) Futures and Wholesale Prices Remain High
Due to tight cattle numbers and seasonal factors, the 2025 market for fattening and feeding cattle remains at record levels. The high futures prices are pushing up procurement costs for retail and food service. nugenmarion.com

(5) "Preference for Premium"
Consumers increasingly prefer higher-grade beef with more marbling, such as steaks and ground beef, while relatively cheaper cuts and grades are left on the shelves. As a result, the average unit price tends to rise—this sentiment is widely reported from U.S. media interviews. The Guardian

3. Voices from the Field: The "Limit of Markup" in Dining and Meat

Brisket and steak, the "stars" of high-end barbecue and BBQ, remain main products, but rising costs force continuous menu price revisions. Industry reports point out that "even if prices are raised, customer traffic is unlikely to drop, but reliance on alcohol sales per customer is not possible, squeezing gross margins." This trend is likely to affect staple burgers with a time lag. The Guardian

4. "Real-Life Feelings" Visible on Social Media

On social media, hashtags #BeefPrices and #FoodInflation are used alongside

• "Costco's NY strip has gone up by a few dollars in a year"

• "Ground beef in the 'six-dollar range' is really tough"

• "A critical issue for BBQ lovers"
  , with posts of "receipt photos/price tag photos" appearing one after another. In data visualization communities, FRED's $6.32 graph is spreading, and news program feature clips are gaining views on X. All of these focus on short texts and images, sharing the "pain points" of individual households in a real way. X (formerly Twitter)Reddit
  
  
  
  

5. How Long Will Demand Last?—The Risk and Outlook of "Demand Destruction"

Beef is a highly preferred and hard-to-replace primary protein, so demand remains strong even at high prices in the short term. However, if economic downturns or stagnant income growth coincide, "demand destruction" can occur, causing prices to reverse sharply. Official forecasts also predict continued beef price increases in 2025, with double-digit year-on-year growth expected at both the farm gate and wholesale levels. While prices are "unlikely to drop quickly," adjustments during downturns can be significant. Economic Research Service

6. Household "Defense Techniques": Buying, Eating, and Substitution Tips

• Tackle Lower Unit Price Cuts: Buy shoulder or round in bulk → freeze in portions to lower "average unit price."

• Coarse "Homemade Mince": Use a food processor to coarsely grind cheaper cuts for tacos or sauces.

• Cross Channels: Compare membership warehouses, local butcher shops, and online subscriptions to target "loss leader items."

• Use Alternative Proteins: Temporarily shift to chicken or pork, using beef as a "reward."

• Menu Innovations: Design meals like meatloaf or stews to "satisfy with small amounts."

7. The "Four-Year Problem" Indicates the Possibility of Prolongation

Herd recovery requires biological time for breeding and fattening. Even if increased production is decided now, it will take at least several years to reach the shelves. Furthermore, "policy and geopolitical" noise, such as cross-border infectious diseases and trade frictions, adds to the price. The high prices of 2025 are expected to peak in 2026-27 and linger longer as a baseline scenario. Financial Times

Postscript: Implications for Japan (Concise)

The rise in U.S. trimming prices and the chain of tariffs are likely to affect global beef markets. Restaurant chains and mass retailers' private brands will inevitably need to secure imported ingredients and revise menu designs (reflected in Japanese stores depending on exchange rate trends). Whether "expensive but selling" continues here as well, the fall-winter promotions will be a touchstone.

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