Trump Suggests "100% Tariff" on All Canadian Goods — Reflecting the Next Move in the "Encirclement of China" Strategy

Trump Suggests "100% Tariff" on All Canadian Goods — Reflecting the Next Move in the "Encirclement of China" Strategy

"Tariffs" are increasingly becoming a "pressure device" rather than a diplomatic card. When U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that if Canada proceeds with a trade agreement with China, he would impose a 100% tariff on all imports from Canada, it sent ripples of tension not only among global market participants but also at the citizen level in both countries.


The trigger was Canada's "boost" in relations with China. According to reports, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, after visiting China, showed moves to sort out several tariff issues and advance bilateral trade. From the U.S. perspective, this appears as a potential "loophole for China." Trump is strongly wary of Canada becoming a "detour route" for Chinese products and has taken the extreme step of proposing a 100% tariff rate.


What is important here is that it's not merely an emotional argument of "Canada shouldn't get too close to China." The aim of brandishing tariffs is to change the flow of the supply chain and shake up corporate investment decisions. If the "100% on all goods" becomes a reality, a wide range of industries, including auto parts, metals, machinery, and resources from Canada to the U.S., would be directly hit. The U.S. side is no exception. North America has an industrial structure where parts and materials cross borders multiple times to become finished products, and tariffs are likely to ultimately rebound as price increases for consumers.


Nevertheless, the background to Trump's unwavering hardline stance lies in the domestic political context surrounding U.S. policy towards China. Messages that heighten vigilance against China resonate easily with his support base. Furthermore, taking a strong stance with allies is also a classic tactic to "extract concessions in negotiations." Many view the warning to Canada as more of an attempt to "apply brakes" to Canada's approach to China rather than a premise for actual implementation.


On the other hand, Canada finds itself in a difficult position due to its high dependence on the U.S. It does not want to damage its relationship with its largest trading partner, the U.S. However, the more the U.S. strengthens its stance of "if you want to trade with us, adjust your relationship with China," the more the debate within Canada intensifies that "relying on a single pole is risky." In fact, Prime Minister Carney has made a call on social media to "buy and make locally," showing a stance of encouraging "domestic return" against external pressure.


This movement was quickly amplified on social media. Symbolic was the spread of posts highlighting the "flip-flop" in Trump's statements. Recently, he had made remarks to the effect that "if you can trade with China, that's a good thing," but within a short period, he shifted to a warning of "100% tariff if you agree with China"—this "change" was widely shared in the form of comparative images and quoted posts. Even as a common political maneuver, the impression on the receiving side tends to be "policy changes daily" and "using threats to move the other party."


The strong reaction from the Canadian side was evident in bulletin board-type communities. In threads on Reddit dealing with Canadian politics, there was a mix of anger, resignation, and realistic calculations. For example, there were sarcastic voices about the "flip-flop" of "he said it was fine last week," strong words like "trying to dominate with trade as a weapon," and calls for calmness with numbers like "isn't trade with China 4% and the U.S. 15%?" Furthermore, there were also prominent hardline opinions like "even if we concede, the demands won't stop. We should push back without seeking carve-outs." It is evident that Canadian public opinion is divided between "immediate counteraction" and "damage avoidance" regarding its stance towards the U.S.


On U.S. social media, the topic was discussed from a different angle. The focus gathered around the phrase "backdoor export of Chinese products," with supportive posts arguing that "it should be prevented with border control and tariffs." Meanwhile, skeptics opposed by saying "it will only raise prices in North America" and "it will break the supply chain," strengthening the view that tariffs are "domestic performance." Additionally, Trump's use of language that seemed to look down on the other country, such as calling Prime Minister Carney a "Governor," also became a spark. It was perceived as an attitude that disregards diplomatic courtesy, making it easy for criticism to spread that the U.S.-Canada conflict is being "staged."


What makes this commotion troublesome is that tariffs are not a one-off policy but can be linked to future "reviews" and "renegotiations." The North American trade framework (the agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico) is said to be at a turning point for review, and if the U.S. strengthens pressure by involving its policy towards China here, the entire supply chain, including Mexico, could be shaken. For companies, the biggest cost is not the fluctuation of tax rates but the "decline in predictability." This is because decisions on capital investment and production transfers are made over the years.


So, how will Canada move? In the short term, it is realistic to emphasize "independence" to domestic public opinion while sorting out relations with China within a range that does not incur U.S. anger—this dual strategy is likely. Prime Minister Carney's message of "buy and make" is symbolic of this. In the medium to long term, Canada will continue a difficult balancing act of advancing trade diversification (Europe, Asia, resource markets, etc.) while maintaining the advantages of the integrated North American supply chain.


On the other hand, the U.S. cannot wield the tariff card as a panacea. If it increases friction with allies under the name of encircling China, it could ultimately encourage "distancing from the U.S." The repeatedly appearing phrase "hurry to diversify" on social media is also a sign of this. While tariffs can stop the economy from crossing borders, it is difficult to stop distrust from crossing borders. The 100% tariff warning this time has become a symbolic event reflecting how far "economic security" will be swallowed by "political language" in the triangular relationship between the U.S., Canada, and China.


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