Tesla's Robotaxi Finally Launches — Will Tesla's Unique Approach Be the Winning Formula?

【Prologue】
The paid trial operation of Tesla's robotaxi, which began on June 22 (local time) in Austin, Texas, is a major event that CEO Elon Musk called "the culmination of a decade of effort." Selected influencers and investors summoned a modified Model Y through an ordering app, with the driver's seat left vacant and a "safety monitor" sitting in the passenger seat—a scene that quickly took over social media.investing.com

【On-site Report】
The operation area is limited to a radius of about 5 km from South Congress to downtown, with 10 vehicles running on the first day. The fare is set at “$4.20,” a nod to Musk's humor, and the boarding process includes multilingual guides. On the first day alone, the total driving distance reached 2,420 km, with 14 instances of hard braking and zero major incidents reported.investing.com

【Technical Background】
The Model Y-based vehicle recognizes its surroundings with eight cameras and an in-house FSD chip, without LiDAR or radar. To reduce image latency, it is equipped with a second-generation Dojo accelerator inside the vehicle, and algorithms are updated as needed via OTA updates.

【Deep Dive: FSD Stack】
The latest FSD v12.5.3 learns E2E transformers using real-world driving data from 30 million vehicles (1PB) with Dojo. It integrates predictions not only for steering angles and acceleration/deceleration but also for turn signals and wiper speeds, statistically recreating the "intuitive driving" of human drivers.

【Algorithm Challenges】
There are still weaknesses, such as past cases where CNN mistakenly identified paper bags as pedestrians in dark or backlit conditions, causing sudden stops, and optical distortion from raindrops. Tesla explains that "the neural network learns to ignore raindrops themselves," but experts are concerned about the transparency of RSS (Responsibility-Sensitive Safety) certification.

【Regulations and Legal Framework】
Texas was a "loose paradise" with a state law enacted in 2017 prohibiting municipal regulations, but a new law was passed just before the start of the robotaxi service. It mandates state DMV approval and emergency response plans, with an "Easy to get, easy to lose" system allowing immediate revocation in case of violations.investing.comreuters.com

【Stock Market Reaction】
On the trading day following the launch, Tesla's stock saw a slight increase of +0.03%, with trading volume 1.5 times higher. Bulls view the successful demonstration as adding a $30 per share premium, while pessimism persists, drawing comparisons to GM Cruise's accident-related suspensions.

【Competitive Comparison】
Waymo has achieved a cumulative 5.4 billion km of autonomous driving with a trinity of LiDAR, radar, and cameras, while Amazon Zoox has a dedicated vehicle without a steering wheel. Tesla, with its monocular camera approach, has a cost advantage but is challenged by weather detection.washingtonpost.com

【Enthusiasm and Skepticism on Social Media】
On X, #TeslaRobotaxi peaked at 1,200 posts per second. Influencer Sawyer Merritt posted, "Even the safety monitors have no steering wheel. Amazing!" surpassing 3 million viewswashingtonpost.com. Meanwhile, on Reddit r/RealTesla, conspiracy theories like "Isn't it just remotely controlled from the following car?" and comments mocking "AI = Actual Indians" are among the top.reddit.com

【Voices of Local Users】
Graduate student Mia Rodriguez welcomes the feature, saying, "I could practice my presentation with the in-car ring light while commuting." Jonathan Howard, who has children, laments, "The restriction for those under 18 is inconvenient."

【Focus on Safety】
Near-miss reports include sudden braking due to misidentification of bicycles and 10-second stops when turning right. It is said that logs are relearned in Dojo the next day, and the safety improvement cycle has started to operate on a daily basis.

【Global Expansion Roadmap】
Musk has declared an expansion to Tokyo, Berlin, Dubai, and Singapore by 2026. However, in Japan, Level 4 autonomous driving is limited to specific areas, and taxi business laws pose a barrier.

【Impact on the Labor Market】
An MIT estimate suggests that 20% of the approximately 1 million taxi/ride-share drivers in the U.S. will be replaced by 2030. On the other hand, about 15,000 new jobs are expected to be created in remote monitoring and AI logistics.

【Citizen-Participatory Data Improvement】
Tesla has introduced active learning by virtually driving general user vehicles in "Shadow Mode" to focus on scenarios with large errors. Millions of kilometers of pseudo-data are added in a few days, and behavior is improving daily.

【Energy Grid Integration】
Discussions are underway with state governments on the "Mobility Buffer" concept, which involves reverse flow to the grid via V2G during daytime idle hours. The aim is to function as a battery storage for excess renewable energy in conjunction with Megapack.

【Cultural Ripples】
On TikTok, "RoboTaxi Confessionals," where passengers share their worries, is trending, and Netflix is planning an unmanned taxi thriller "Ghost Driver." Tesla has denied cooperation, but the topic is gaining significant attention.

【Changes in Urban Planning】
The "Mini Mobility Hub" plan is progressing, which involves converting parts of sidewalks into lift-up robotaxi pods. In the future, it is likely to become corner infrastructure replacing phone booths.

【Epilogue】
Are the 10 Model Ys running in Austin the forerunners of millions more in a few years, or will they vanish like a mirage in the desert of regulations and reality?The accelerator—or rather, the algorithm—has just quietly stepped into the future.