Preventing a Taiwan Contingency "Ideally"? Testing Taiwan and Allies' Resolve with the Trump Strategy of "Not Defending Alone"

1. The Emergence of a New Strategy Declaring "Preventing War with Taiwan"

On December 5, the Trump administration unveiled its first new National Security Strategy (NSS) since taking office. The document explicitly states "avoiding military conflict with China," highlighting Taiwan and the South China Sea as the most dangerous flashpoints. The specific approach outlined involves maintaining military superiority of the U.S. and its allies along the First Island Chain (the islands stretching from Japan to Taiwan to the Philippines) to make China believe that it cannot win a war, thereby preventing the war from occurring in the first place.Investing.com

Compared to the 2017 version of the NSS, which also touched on the Taiwan issue, the current document mentions Taiwan more frequently and delves deeper into the topic. It positions Taiwan not merely as a "partner" but as a "crucial hub for trade and supply chains, holding a grip on the world's semiconductor supply," indicating a sense of crisis that if this is lost, U.S. security and prosperity would be jeopardized.Investing.com

2. Keywords: "Military Superiority" and "First Island Chain"

At the core of this strategy is the "maintenance of military superiority (overmatch)." The document aims to make any invasion an "unprofitable gamble" by maintaining an overwhelmingly favorable balance of power over the Chinese military around Taiwan and the First Island Chain.Investing.com

However, what is emphasized here is the point that "America will not act alone." With the U.S. military's burden nearing its limit, the strategy calls on allies and partners along the First Island Chain to:

• Significantly increase defense spending

• Expand access to ports and bases for the U.S. military

• Invest in "denial capabilities" such as anti-ship and anti-air missiles

This mirrors the "Hague Commitment," which set a 5% GDP defense spending target for NATO, bringing the same concept to Asia.The White House

3. Differences from the Biden Era: Reinterpretation of Strategic "Ambiguity"

The previous Biden administration repeatedly stated that "if China invades Taiwan, the U.S. will join in its defense," effectively stepping into "strategic clarity."Investing.com

In contrast, during Trump's second term, while prioritizing Taiwan's defense, the administration remains silent on the extent of military intervention. Instead, it emphasizes the logic of "accumulating enough military and economic cards to avoid war."

Underlying this is Trump's "deal-based diplomacy."

• While maintaining a personal relationship with Xi Jinping

• Redesigning trade with China to be a "mutually beneficial relationship"

• While not backing down militarily

This "compete but do not break" stance is reflected in the NSS.TIME

In Europe, some expressions in this strategic document (such as concerns about the decline of civilization) have been criticized as far-right, with concerns that it might "divide allies."TIME

4. Taiwan's "Silicon Shield"

One of the main reasons the Trump strategy emphasizes Taiwan is the global semiconductor supply chain.

Currently, Taiwan is said to produce more than half of the world's semiconductors and almost all of the advanced chips.Power Electronics News

Particularly, TSMC has been responsible for a wide range of cutting-edge logic semiconductors, from smartphones to AI and automotive applications, and has been referred to as Taiwan's "Silicon Shield" (the security shield provided by semiconductors).

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is encouraging TSMC to invest a total of $165 billion in U.S. factories and is also promoting overseas expansion to countries like Japan and Germany.Reuters

However, the Taiwanese government repeatedly emphasizes that "the most advanced technology will not be taken off the island," and factories in places like Arizona will not produce technology beyond 2nm for the time being.The Guardian

In other words, no matter how much the U.S. increases its production bases, "the most lucrative part" remains in Taiwan. This, in itself, increases the U.S.'s incentive to protect Taiwan, while from China's perspective, it could intensify the temptation to "hold the world's chips hostage by securing this area."

5. Homework Presented to Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia

The NSS sends a stern message not only to Taiwan but also to allies along the First Island Chain, such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.Investing.com

• Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated in the Diet that "if Japan is threatened by a Taiwan contingency, the Self-Defense Forces may use force," provoking a strong reaction from China.

• Subsequently, it was reported that President Trump unofficially urged Takaichi to "avoid unnecessarily provoking China."

• At the same time, the U.S. has approved a $330 million sale of fighter jet parts to Taiwan and is pressuring Japan and South Korea to significantly increase their defense budgets.Investing.com

All these actions are perceived as a message that "America will support, but allies must also be prepared to shed blood on the front lines."

For Japan,

• the path to exceeding 2% of GDP in defense spending

• Establishing counterattack capabilities (long-range missiles)

• Further expansion of the use of U.S. military bases in Japan

and other ongoing discussions are becoming even heavier as real "homework." South Korea is also being asked to play a role not only in deterring North Korea but also in deterring China, with the gap with domestic public opinion becoming a challenge.canberratimes.com.au

6. Reactions on Social Media: A Mix of Cynicism, Skepticism, and Support

The announcement of this strategy has sparked various discussions in online spaces such as X (formerly Twitter) and Reddit.

6-1. Cynicism: "What Does 'Ideally Prevent' Really Mean?"

The Trump administration's NSS uses expressions like "ideally deterring the Taiwan conflict with military superiority," but many are caught up on the word "ideally." On China-related forums,

• comments like "The word 'ideally' actually indicates that war is not ruled out"

• and "It's just writing excuses in advance for when things don't go as planned"

are prominent.Reddit

6-2. Concerns: "The Pressure on Japan Is Too Much"

On Reddit, many view this as a message to Japan to "make up your mind."

• Posts joking about the possibility of Japan arming itself with nuclear weapons

• Voices pointing out, "If Japan seriously expands its military, the significance of the U.S. presence may diminish"

• Comments highlighting the realistic shortage of military industrial capacity, saying, "Even if allies slightly increase defense spending, it would be a drop in the bucket given the current shortage in U.S. shipbuilding and missile production capacity"

show a mix of expectations and skepticism.Reddit

Particularly from users in resource-exporting countries like Australia, there are concerns that "in the process of redesigning U.S.-China economic relations, exports to China might be sacrificed."Reddit

6-3. Support: "Appreciating Realism"

On the other hand, there are a significant number of voices that evaluate Trump's strategy as "more realistic than Biden's."

• Posts stating, "Trump views things through the lens of deals and balance of power rather than the ideals of democracy, but the goal of deterring China remains unchanged regardless of who is president"

• and "It's only natural to ask allies to bear more of the burden; the era of the U.S. protecting the world for free is over"

are representative. These supporters evaluate the "two-front strategy" of engaging with China economically while drawing a line in security as a competitive but stability-oriented strategy.Reddit

7. Impact on Asia and the World: Between Deterrence and Escalation

Despite the Trump administration's new strategy explicitly stating "preventing war," it simultaneously creates the following risks and opportunities.

Positive Aspects (Supporters' View)

• Raising the cost of military action against Taiwan for China, increasing the threshold for invasion##