The Struggle Over the Strait of Hormuz Enters a New Phase: The Iran War Continues Even After the "Ceasefire Deadline" Passes

The war between the United States and Iran is far from the state imagined by the word "ceasefire."

In June 2026, to halt the prolonged conflict, the United States and Iran, through mediation by countries like Pakistan, established a framework aimed at ending hostilities. This framework was expected to discuss not only the cessation of military actions but also Iran's nuclear issues, the U.S. blockade, and the normalization of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global energy supply.

However, even after about two months, a final political settlement has not been reached.

The current situation is closer to being described as "oscillating between full-scale war and an unstable ceasefire" rather than "the war has ended."

The main focus is the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

In August, a statement from U.S. President Donald Trump further heightened tensions.

Trump suggested that after defeating Iran, the Strait of Hormuz would become U.S. territory.

Regardless of the legal and diplomatic issues of whether the U.S. can actually claim the strait as its territory, the statement itself is undoubtedly highly provocative to Iran.

Iran immediately reacted.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, stated on the social media platform X that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be taken by the U.S. President's words or military force, clearly showing Iran's stance of not relinquishing control over the strait.

What is important here is that the U.S. and Iran are not merely fighting over "control of a narrow sea area."

Who can navigate the Strait of Hormuz and under what conditions?

Deciding these rules means holding enormous influence over the world's energy supply.

The World's Economic Lifeline: The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is known as one of the most important energy transport routes in the world.

Before the war, about one-fifth of the world's oil supply was said to pass through this strait.

Much of the crude oil and liquefied natural gas exported from Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar are transported through here to Asia and Europe.

Thus, the issue of the Strait of Hormuz is not just a "problem between Iran and the U.S."

For energy-importing countries in Asia, including Japan, China, South Korea, and India, it is truly the lifeline of their economies.

Since the Iran war began, the passage of merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased.

Even if the warring countries do not directly attack, the mere possibility of missiles and drones flying in the area and merchant ships being attacked makes shipping companies hesitant to navigate.

Shipping companies must protect not only the ships themselves but also the safety of their crew.

Furthermore, insurance premiums for ships navigating war-risk areas increase.

As a result, the issue is not just "whether they can pass or not," but also "how much additional cost is needed to pass," which affects global prices.

Attacks on Merchant Ships Highlight the Fragility of the "Ceasefire"

What makes the current situation particularly opaque is the continued attacks on civilian vessels.

As of August 15, reports indicated that a vessel related to the UAE's state oil company ADNOC was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.

Fortunately, there were cases where no casualties were reported, but the important fact is that merchant ships are being targeted even while negotiations to end the war are ongoing.

This is an extremely serious issue for shipping companies.

Even if governments announce "navigation is allowed," if the danger of attacks remains at sea, it is difficult to resume normal transportation.

In this sense, the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz involves three stages.

Political agreement.

Ensuring military safety.

And the restoration of trust to the extent that private companies can judge "it's safe to navigate."

A written ceasefire alone does not bring back these three elements at once.

Iran and Oman Discuss "New Rules" for the Strait

Meanwhile, discussions continue between Iran and Oman regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz has a unique geography, with Iran to the north and Oman to the south.

Therefore, how the two countries set routes and allow merchant ships to pass is extremely important for the practical reopening of the strait.

Iran positions this as a "technical consultation" separate from ceasefire negotiations with the U.S.

However, in reality, the setting of routes itself has become a political issue.

Will Iran demand some form of fee from passing ships?

Who will manage the entry of ships?

Will the U.S. accept this system?

Unless these issues are resolved, the possibility of the strait returning to its pre-war state is low.

The Japanese government also reiterated the importance of restoring "free and safe navigation without additional costs" during a phone consultation with the Iranian Foreign Minister at the end of July.

For Japan, it is not just about "being able to navigate," but "being able to use it as a normal international route" that is important.

Crude Oil Prices Rise Again as Market Fears Prolonged War

Financial markets are reacting sensitively.

On August 14, North Sea Brent crude oil rose to the $88 range per barrel.

This is significantly higher than six months ago.

In the crude oil market, prices are not determined solely by actual supply.

Even the fear that "supply might stop in the future" adds a risk premium to futures prices.

If attacks on merchant ships continue in the Strait of Hormuz and negotiations between the U.S. and Iran stall, investors will factor in the risk of supply disruption into prices.

As a result, even if tankers bound for Japan can navigate, the actual price of crude oil purchased by Japanese companies may rise.

And the rise in crude oil prices is not just a gasoline issue.

It affects a wide range of sectors in the Japanese economy, including aviation fuel, diesel, heavy oil, petrochemical products, plastics, packaging materials, paints, and synthetic fibers.

If fuel costs for logistics companies rise, so do transportation costs for goods.

In agriculture, the cost of heating greenhouses and fuel for agricultural machinery increases.

In fisheries, the fuel prices for fishing boats squeeze profits.

For airlines, jet fuel prices affect fares.

In other words, what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz could manifest as changes in product prices at supermarkets and convenience stores months later.

For Japan, It's Not "Geopolitics" But a "Life Issue"

The Strait of Hormuz is thousands of kilometers away from Japan.

However, there are few developed countries that have needed the stability of this strait as much as Japan.

Before this crisis, Japan overwhelmingly depended on the Middle East for its crude oil imports.

Especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE are Japan's major crude oil suppliers.

It is important not to misunderstand that "Japan is affected because it buys a large amount of crude oil from Iran."

The issue is not Iranian crude oil, but the fact that many tankers heading from Gulf countries to Japan rely on the same exit, the Strait of Hormuz.

Even if supply countries are diversified, if the transportation route is concentrated in one place, geopolitical risks remain.

This war has exposed that weakness.

The Japanese Government Rapidly Expands "Non-Hormuz" Procurement

However, Japan is not immediately facing a situation of crude oil shortage.

Since the start of the war, the government and private companies have rapidly expanded the procurement of crude oil that does not pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Alternative procurement is being pursued from the United States, Latin America, Asia-Pacific, Central Asia, Africa, Canada, Mexico, and other regions.

As of the government's explanation in June, it was projected that the procurement volume for July could be secured at the same level as the previous year.

Furthermore, the government has shown estimates that even if procurement from August onwards remains at about 75% of the previous year, stable supply is possible until the end of March 2028 by combining oil reserves.

This is an important reassurance.

It is not a simple story of "if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, gasoline will immediately disappear from Japan."

Japan has both national and private reserves and the economic power to change crude oil procurement sources.

However, "being able to secure quantities" and "being able to secure them at the same price as before" are completely different issues.

Transporting crude oil from distant locations increases the sailing distance of ships.

Transport costs also increase.

If purchased urgently on the spot market, higher prices may have to be paid than for long-term contracts.

Therefore, Japan's real risk is not only the sudden disappearance of oil but also the prolonged state of "having to continue buying at high prices."

On Social Media, "It's Not a Distant War" and Living Concerns

In response to this situation, posts linking the Strait of Hormuz issue to the Japanese economy are prominent on social media.

Particularly common are reactions such as,

"I thought it was a Middle Eastern war, but it ends up affecting gasoline and electricity prices."

"If transportation costs go up, won't all food and daily necessities go up too?"

"I only realized how dependent we were on the Middle East this time."

These are the kinds of responses being seen.

Indeed, even among Japanese X users who disseminate investment and economic information, there are indications that the long-term disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is not a "conflict across the sea" but a problem directly linked to the cost of living and asset prices for Japanese people.

On the other hand, there are also voices warning against excessive pessimism.

Japan has a considerable amount of oil reserves, and alternative procurement from countries like the U.S. is progressing, so,

"Explanations that make it seem like oil will run out tomorrow are overly alarming."

"We should separate the issues of supply volume and price increase."

These reactions are also being observed.

This point has a certain rationality.

Underestimating the crisis is also dangerous, but the extreme view that "the closure of the Strait of Hormuz = immediate halt of the Japanese economy" does not reflect reality.

While social media spreads information quickly, it is also prone to mixing old figures, unverified information, and political assertions.

Especially during wartime, information warfare by governments and political forces intensifies.

Since more sensational posts tend to spread easily, it is necessary to distinguish individual posts from verified information by governments, international organizations, and major media outlets.

Evaluations of "What Is the Government Doing?" Are Also Divided

Evaluations of the Japanese government are also divided on social media.

From the critical side,

"Japan has relied too much on the Middle East for energy security."

"Starting alternative procurement after a crisis occurs is too late."

"While emphasizing the alliance with the U.S., Japan should strengthen its independent diplomacy as it also needs to talk with Iran in this difficult diplomatic situation."

These opinions are being expressed.

On the other hand,

"Japan is continuing direct dialogue not only with the U.S. but also with Iran."

"The point that alternative crude oil has been secured from around the world should be evaluated."

"The fact that reserves are functioning is itself a result of long-term energy security policy."

These views are also present.

In fact, the Japanese government maintains diplomatic channels with Iran.

In addition to coordinating with Iran regarding the passage of Japanese-related vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, Japan continues to seek the normalization of navigation at the foreign minister level.

Japan is in an extremely difficult position.

In terms of security, the U.S. is the most important ally.

However, stable relations with Middle Eastern