NATO Shaken by Former President Trump's Move - The 5% Rule Blown Away: The Iran Airstrike Exposes Cracks in the Alliance

1. Prologue: From a "Quiet Summit" to a Firestorm

What the NATO Secretariat had prepared was a "boring meeting" with a generic joint declaration and photo session. However, on the night of June 22 (Iran time), U.S. B-2 bombers and submarine-launched Tomahawks launched a simultaneous attack on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The world awoke the next morning to hashtags and breaking news. The shock, comparable to the Wellington Treaty, was unleashed just 48 hours before the leaders gathered in The Hague.washingtonpost.comen.wikipedia.org

2. What Was Operation "Midnight Hammer"?

The U.S. officially announced it as a "limited airstrike to prevent nuclear development." The operation lasted 25 minutes, emphasizing zero casualties, but Iran's Foreign Ministry demanded a UN Security Council meeting, calling it a "violation of sovereignty." Military analysts pointed to the use of B-2s deploying GBU-57 bunker busters and a saturation attack with cruise missiles, estimating a "10-year setback" for Iran's nuclear program, though assessments of the destruction's scale vary. The fact that the U.S. conducted an "out-of-area preemptive strike" not envisaged by Article 5 of the NATO Charter shook the very foundation of the alliance's principles.en.wikipedia.org

3. The Atmosphere in The Hague: Panic, Calculation, Silence

The expressions of the delegations arriving the day before the summit were tense. The host country, the Netherlands, proposed a "change of agenda," and Secretary-General Stoltenberg (just after his term extension) repeatedly called for "unity." However, behind the scenes, three differing stances emerged.

• Proponents (U.S., UK, Poland): They equated deterrence against Iran with deterrence against Russia, advocating the 5% target as an "existential duty."

• Cautious Group (Germany, France, Italy): They emphasized separating Middle Eastern intervention from European defense. German Chancellor Merz stated, "We will increase funding but will not approve an expansion of operations."

• Fiscal Resistance Group (Spain, Canada, others): They criticized the 5% target as "economic suicide" and demanded efficiency within the current 2% framework.apnews.com

4. Explosive Debates on Social Media

Immediately after the attack, Trump posted on the @WhiteHouse account, stating, "We have completed our very successful attack..." and declared a "chance for peace." Within three hours, it garnered 450,000 reposts and 1 million likesx.com.

• Support Hashtags: #AmericaFirstAgain / #StrikeForPeace

• Criticism Hashtags: #NoWar #StopTrump #NATOatRisk
  Influencers were also divided. Military historian Matthew Kroenig praised it as a "historic deterrence," while international law scholar Mary Ellen O'Connell condemned it as an "illegal preemptive attack." The anxiety among citizens was made visible through an anti-NATO demonstration of over 500 people in The Hague.apnews.com

5. The Fate of the "5% Rule": Numbers Reveal Alliance Cracks

The "2% of GDP" goal set at the 2014 Wales Summit has only been achieved by 16 out of 32 countries even after a decade. Trump's proposal of "5%" appears to be an absurd figure that even the U.S. has not met, but in reality, U.S. defense spending has already recovered to 3.9% (2024). If major European countries were to raise their spending to the same level, an additional $700 billion would be required. The EU Commission stated it is "incompatible with fiscal discipline," and in France, there are concerns about a resurgence of the Yellow Vest movement due to increased gasoline taxes. The numbers pose a fundamental question of "who protects whom," beyond just a fiscal issue.apnews.com

6. The Iran Situation and Europe's Geopolitics: The Nightmare of a Two-Front Operation

European security experts call the addition of the Middle East as a new flashpoint, on top of the ammunition shortage exacerbated by the Ukraine war, a "nightmare of a two-front operation." Shipping insurance rates rose by 15% the day after the announcement, and Brent crude temporarily surged to over $110. Russia condemned the U.S. as "reckless" at the UN while quietly drawing closer to Iran. China issued a statement calling it a "provocation that undermines regional stability" and hinted at accelerating a counter-economic bloc through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. For Europe, which is dependent on energy, the overlapping of sanctions against Russia and risks with Iran presents a double punch to supply chains.washingtonpost.com

7. Where is NATO Heading? Expert Interviews

Professor Sullivan of Johns Hopkins University told this publication, "NATO is at a crossroads of 'transformation.' It must transition from Cold War-style collective defense to a fluid 'mission coalition.'" In contrast, Polish Deputy Defense Minister Krzysztof Szczerski argued, "U.S. actions are the core of deterrence. Europe must make up its mind." This highlighted the wavering of "value consensus" within the alliance.

8. Public Reactions: The Gap Between "Distance" and "Reality"

According to the SNS analysis tool Brandwatch, there were about 3.2 million posts related to "Trump + Iran Strike" within 24 hours of the attack. By region, the U.S. accounted for 35%, the Middle East 28%, Europe 25%, and others 12%. However, the perception of it as a "close danger" was 62% in Europe and 39% in the U.S., showing a reversal. Experts point out that "realism about energy dependence and refugee influx has more impact than geographic distance."

9. Summit Conclusion: A "Mild" Joint Statement and Remaining Sparks

On the final day, the leaders shortened the schedule and adopted a joint statement consisting of only three items: ① Monitoring the Iran situation, ② "Unique paths" for each country to increase defense spending, and ③ Continued support for Ukraine. This implies that neither the 5% target nor support for the Iran airstrike could be explicitly stated. Secretary-General Stoltenberg emphasized to reporters that "the alliance is united," but few believed his words.

10. Conclusion: Beyond the Shadow of the "Red Hat"

The image of red MAGA caps covering the chessboard symbolizes this summit. The harsh reality that the world order cannot be discussed without the U.S., and the paradox that the impulse of a single country can destroy that order. The boundary between alliance and unilateral action will be redefined within the triple equation of future European defense strategy, energy policy, and Middle Eastern diplomacy. Can NATO be "optimal" before being "strongest"? That question remains unanswered.