Key Point to Note First (The "Most Important Fact" Conveyed by This Article)

A study has reported that the Cape penguins (African penguin) off the coast of South Africa have likely starved to death "at sea" during their moulting period due to the decrease in their food supply (mainly sardines). Particularly in the major breeding grounds near Cape Town, Dassen Island/Robben Island, it is estimated that about 95% of the breeding individuals from 2004 were lost over the following eight years. Phys.org

Original Article (within 10,000 characters)

"60,000 Vanished into the Sea" — The Crisis of Cape Penguins That Can't Be Saved by Just Being "Cute"

"Penguins have starved en masse." At first glance, this might seem like a "sad news" story from a distant country. However, the recent report is not about a one-off incident. It is a study indicating that Cape penguins living along the South African coast have been crushed by a structural problem of food shortage, potentially leading to the **disappearance of entire colonies over several years**. Phys.org

95% Decrease in 8 Years — The Stage is Robben Island and Dassen Island

The study focused on the important breeding grounds near Cape Town, Robben Island and Dassen Island. It is estimated that about 95% of the breeding individuals from 2004 were lost over the next eight years, amounting to approximately 62,000 birds. Phys.org

The weight of this number is not just because it is "large." Both islands have historically been major breeding sites and have been continuously monitored over the long term. Taylor & Francis Newsroom

"Bodies Lining the Shore" Is Not the Case — The Reality of "Dying at Sea"

The term "mass death" might lead some to imagine rows of carcasses washed up on the beach. However, researchers state that no large "rafts of carcasses" have been found, and instead, it is more likely that the penguins weakened and died at sea, disappearing out of sight. The Guardian

This is a "quiet collapse" that is hard for us to notice.

The Key is "Moult" — Penguins Unable to Go to Sea for 21 Days

Cape penguins undergo a moult every year, during which they shed their old feathers all at once. However, during this period, the penguins cannot dive into the sea to catch food for about 21 days. To survive, they need to fatten up before moulting and quickly regain their strength afterward. University of Exeter News

If they enter the moult with an empty "fuel tank," starvation awaits. The study strongly suggests that mass deaths may have occurred at this very stage. Taylor & Francis Newsroom

Main Food Source Sardines "Below 25% of Peak" — And for a Long Period

Why couldn't they fatten up? A major factor cited is the decline in one of their main food sources, **sardines (Sardinops sagax)**. Reports indicate that sardine resources off the western coast of South Africa remained below 25% of their peak from 2004 to 2011. University of Exeter News

Furthermore, it is noted that in "most years" since 2004, the biomass of sardines has been below 25%. University of Exeter News

Climate Change × Fishing Structure — "Fish Move, But Boats Remain"

There is not just one cause. Researchers suggest that changes in environmental conditions such as sea temperature and salinity may have affected spawning success, altering the distribution and reproduction of sardines. University of Exeter News

On the other hand, the fishing industry, due to its historical industrial structure, tends to operate in specific areas (west of Cape Agulhas), which can result in high fishing pressure even when resources are declining. University of Exeter News

Indeed, documents mention that the "exploitation rate" of sardines reached 80% at one point in 2006. Taylor & Francis Newsroom

How Was "Starvation" Estimated? — What Long-Term Data Revealed

The research team reportedly used **counts of breeding pairs and moulting individuals on both islands (1995–2015)**, along with survival rates estimated from **capture-mark-recapture** methods (2004–2011) for their analysis. Taylor & Francis Newsroom

The relationship between survival rates, particularly whether they could "survive the moult," and the ease of obtaining food (sardines and anchovies) was strongly indicated — this is the basis for the claim that "mass starvation is highly likely." Taylor & Francis Newsroom

Now Less Than "10,000 Pairs Remain" — The Countdown to Extinction Behind the "Cuteness"

This species is classified as **"Critically Endangered" by the IUCN, with less than 10,000 breeding pairs worldwide. Phys.org

The backdrop to ongoing legal battles and the review of protected areas is the grim outlook of a **"risk of extinction in the wild around 2035." Biodiversity Law Centre

Measures Are Not Enough to Just "Help the Penguins"

On the ground, direct conservation measures such as the provision of artificial nests, predator management, rescue and rehabilitation, and hand-rearing are being accumulated. Taylor & Francis Newsroom

However, what this study highlights is a "food problem" on a scale that cannot be addressed by efforts to rescue individual animals alone. Researchers suggest that improving fisheries management, such as reducing exploitation when resource levels are below 25% of the peak, could be important (although it is noted that "there is debate" on this point). Taylor & Francis Newsroom

The Danger of Simplifying to "Just Stop Fishing"

On social media, straightforward opinions like "if overfishing is the cause, then stop fishing" are prominent. Indeed, fishing pressure is a major issue. Taylor & Francis Newsroom

However, oversimplifying the problem can delay consensus building. In reality, multiple factors are intertwined, such as changes in the ocean due to climate change, changes in spawning grounds, regional disparities in fishing, and local economies. This is why we must simultaneously create "science-based rules" and "mechanisms that ensure compliance."

10-Year No-Take Zones — Judicial Decisions to Preserve "Feeding Grounds"

One such trend is the establishment of **no-take zones around major breeding sites** in South Africa. By March 2025, a decision (agreement) to establish 10-year no-take zones around six important breeding sites has been reported. BirdLife International

This measure is an attempt to effectively preserve the "nearby feeding grounds" that penguins need around breeding, chick-rearing, and moulting periods. Biodiversity Law Centre

Reactions on Social Media (Trends in Posts and Shares Observed Through Searches)

The following is a summary of the points observed in posts when this issue was spread on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram, summarizing the gist of the posts (not intended for personal attacks).

1) "It Hurts My Heart" "Humans Are Killing Them" — Outpouring of Emotions

On X, posts introducing the research content ("scale of 60,000 birds" "main cause is sardine decline") show strong shock and anger. X (formerly Twitter)
On Facebook, posts with tones like "penguins die while humans debate" can also be observed. Facebook##HTML