Is OpenAI Really Going Public? Masayoshi Son's Investment in the "Second Alibaba"

1. Masayoshi Son's Vision for Dominance in the "ASI Era"

On June 27, 2025, at SoftBank Group's (SBG) 45th Annual General Meeting, Chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son boldly declared, "We will lead the platform for Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) over the next decade." While acknowledging the lead of OpenAI, Microsoft, and Google, who have already driven the generative AI boom, he did not hide his ambition to establish a "third pole" originating from Japan. Immediately following his statement, SBG's stock rose over 3% in the Tokyo market, reflecting investor optimism. investing.comreuters.com

2. $32 Billion Investment in OpenAI—"Regret" and "Determination"

At the meeting, Son expressed regret for not betting on OpenAI from the start, revealing that the cumulative investment agreement since last fall has reached $32 billion. It is also reported that they have agreed on a framework to invest an additional $40 billion, which highlights SBG's presence even against OpenAI's estimated corporate value of $300 billion. Son publicly stated, "OpenAI will inevitably go public," envisioning a scenario where SBG holds voting rights and business synergies as the largest strategic shareholder. investing.comstocktwits.com

3. $500 Billion "Stargate" Project—The Heart of ASI Infrastructure

SBG, OpenAI, Oracle, NVIDIA, and MGX plan to construct a massive AI and robotics infrastructure called "Stargate" in the U.S. SBG will lead the financial aspects of this $500 billion project, with Son explaining, "We will secure enormous power and semiconductors in a centralized manner to create computing devices that surpass human knowledge." The FT also reported on a "trillion-dollar Arizona complex plan involving TSMC," indicating that the vision is expanding to a national project level. investing.comft.com

4. $650 Million Acquisition of Ampere and Arm IPO Gains—Positioning in the Semiconductor Front

Boosted by the proceeds from the Arm stock offering, which was the largest IPO in 34 years in 2024, SBG announced in May 2025 that it would acquire U.S. Ampere Computing for $6.5 billion. Ampere specializes in low-power Arm-based CPUs for servers, aiming to "domestically produce" data centers for Stargate. Additionally, SBG secured $4.8 billion by selling T-Mobile shares, converting the proceeds into a substantial "AI powder keg." reuters.com

5. Financial Soundness and Risks—Concerns of "Leverage Dependence" Reemerging

Having had bitter experiences with WeWork's bankruptcy and Vision Fund impairments, Son emphasizes, "We currently have sufficient capital reserves," but the structure of stepping into leverage again cannot be denied. If commitments in the trillions of yen are made in a short period, the risks of rising interest rates and currency fluctuations will become apparent. On investor social media, opinions are divided, with some calling it a "replay of the Alibaba myth" and others dubbing it "SBG's version of the 'Tesla roadmap.'" ft.com

6. Market and Analyst Reactions

Daiwa Securities, in a report, estimated that "the operating profit for fiscal year 2026 will be in the 2 trillion yen range due to the Arm spin-off IPO gains and the integration effects of Ampere," raising the stock price target to 12,000 yen. Meanwhile, some analysts at U.S. investment banks warn, "If the expected stock price falls when OpenAI goes public, SBG's unrealized gains could rapidly decrease."

7. Observing Social Media—The Reality of Enthusiasm and Cynicism

• Stocktwits (Individual Investor Forum)

  • Bullish: "Son hit it big with Arm. This time, he's secured the core of AI."

  • Bearish: "Retail sentiment is 'bearish.' OpenAI is at the peak of a bubble." stocktwits.com

• Reddit r/wallstreetbets

  • "I'll buy the dip if it crashes right after the IPO," "Reminds me of the dot-com bubble in 2000," and other harsh meme posts are scattered. reddit.com

• Japanese X (formerly Twitter)

  • Technical Community: "ASI theoretically requires 10^18 FLOPS. Is the power supply sufficient?"

  • General Public: "Another of Son's 'edgy bets' has begun."

8. Ripple Effects on Domestic Startups

SaaS startups using generative AI are being pressured to decide whether to join the SBG ecosystem, given the preferential pricing of OpenAI API, which SBG has invested in. Data shows that the valuations offered by SBG's Vision Fund 3 in Series A rounds are on average 1.4 times higher than competing VCs.

9. Global Competitors' Moves

Microsoft, while maintaining an exclusive contract with OpenAI, is accelerating its synergy with Azure Cloud. Google is positioning Gemini as an "AI OS," showing moves to counter SBG's ASI vision. In China, Baidu's "ERNIE 5" has been designated a national project, emphasizing regulatory advantages, and geopolitical risks are casting shadows over technological alignment.

10. Scenarios for the Next Decade—Three Crossroads

1. Improved IPO Window: OpenAI goes public between 2025 and 2026, allowing SBG to advance Stargate using the valuation gains.

2. High Interest Rates and Falling Stock Prices Scenario: Rising capital costs test SBG's leverage resilience, necessitating restructuring of existing investments.

3. Stagnation in Technological Breakthroughs: Delays in achieving ASI extend the investment recovery period. If this coincides with Son's retirement, business succession issues may resurface.

11. Conclusion

Masayoshi Son's "ASI Roadmap" is grand, but in reality, it can be described as a high-risk, high-reward "intellectual venture investment." The success of OpenAI's IPO, the implementation speed of Stargate, and the whims of the capital market—how these intertwined variables are controlled will determine whether a social infrastructure that will go down in human history can be built. The "second AI bubble year" is now unfolding, testing capitalists, entrepreneurs, and policymakers simultaneously.