Why Are Train Fares Increasing One After Another Now? — The Compelling Reasons for Entering an "Era of Regular Fare Increases Every Few Years"

Why Are Train Fares Increasing One After Another Now? — The Compelling Reasons for Entering an "Era of Regular Fare Increases Every Few Years"

2025年07月09日 14:00

Introduction: The Shock of Successive Price Increases

On December 6, 2024, JR East applied for a revision of its fare ceiling. This marks the company's first full-scale fare revision based on its own management decision since its establishment in 1987. The average revision rate is 13.1%, with implementation expected in March 2026. Following this, Seibu Railway and Tsukuba Express have also applied for fare increases in 2025, creating a "price hike rush" across the Tokyo metropolitan area.



Chapter 1: Macro-Economic Environment—Inflation and High Energy Costs

Railway operators, which consume large amounts of electricity, were directly hit by the rise in electricity rates from 2024 onwards. According to statistics from the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, import prices for LNG, coal, and oil have all risen by nearly 1.9 times, with electricity rates increasing by 10-20%. Additionally, construction steel and maintenance materials have also seen significant price increases, while labor costs have surged. The shortage of maintenance personnel is particularly severe, creating a structure where wage increases are inevitable.



Chapter 2: Institutional Changes—Barrier-Free Fares and Aging Infrastructure

The railway station barrier-free fare (10 yen) is scheduled to be included in the base fare from fiscal 2025 onwards as part of a system revision. This will automatically incorporate it into the fare rather than as an explicit surcharge, contributing to an overall fare increase. Furthermore, infrastructure is aging, entering a period where bridges and elevated structures need renewal. JR East plans to invest 3.2 trillion yen over the next five years.



Chapter 3: Declining Demand—Aging Population and Remote Work

The spread of telework has significantly reduced the number of commuters using season tickets. According to a survey by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, season ticket revenue in fiscal 2023 remained at 86% of pre-COVID levels, with no full recovery expected in the future. Additionally, the declining birthrate and aging population are leading to a long-term decrease in transport passengers.



Chapter 4: Global Trends—Fare Increases Becoming the Norm Overseas

In the UK, rail fares rose by 4.6% in March 2025, and France's SNCF implemented an average fare increase of 1.5% in January of the same year. Both countries cite the reduction of fiscal burdens and the sustainability of infrastructure investments as reasons. Globally, "fare increases every few years" are becoming standard, and Japan is no exception.



Chapter 5: Financial Structure and Challenges of Railway Companies

Many railway operators have a revenue structure overly reliant on regular income. With more than 40% of fare revenue coming from season tickets, stability is being lost as corporate work style reforms progress. Additionally, railway infrastructure is a long-term depreciable asset, requiring 10-30 years for investment recovery. This has made timing fare increases difficult, but going forward, earlier decisions on fare increases will be necessary.



Chapter 6: Forecasting Future Revision Cycles

- Revision Frequency: Previously, revisions every 10-15 years were common, but going forward, reviews every 2-3 years are expected to become the norm.
- Revision Range: Initial fares to increase by 10-20 yen, overall by about 5-15%
- Review Process: After applying to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, approval is obtained through the Fare Review Committee and public comments



Chapter 7: Response Strategies for Users, Companies, and Municipalities

Companies need to reconsider how commuting allowances are provided and consider introducing mobility passes. Municipalities should advance subsidy systems and transportation tax reforms to maintain regional transportation. Individuals are encouraged to effectively use commuter tickets, tickets with point rebates, and mobility subscriptions.



Conclusion: Rethinking the Sustainability and Cost Sharing of Public Transportation

While fare increases are a burden for users, they are unavoidable investments to maintain the safety and reliability of railways. In the future, a review of cost sharing and system design involving operators, users, municipalities, and the government will be required. Periodic fare reviews every few years could become the "new norm" for maintaining sustainable transportation infrastructure.



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