The Cost of "Normalizing" Frozen Pizza and Snacks: Latest Data on Ultra-Processed Foods and Heart Disease Risk

The Cost of "Normalizing" Frozen Pizza and Snacks: Latest Data on Ultra-Processed Foods and Heart Disease Risk

1) Confirming the Strength of the "47% Increase" Headline and Its Content

Frozen pizzas, potato chips, cookies, candy, sugary sodas, smoked processed meats—foods that often serve as "quick fixes" in busy daily life may be strongly linked to heart and vascular diseases. The UK Independent highlighted a new study indicating that people who consume more ultra-processed foods (UPFs) have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease, reporting that the highest consumption group had a "47% higher" risk.


However, the important thing here is not to judge solely by the "scary numbers." The 47% figure is a "relative difference" calculated in the study and is not a cursed number that adds the same risk to everyone. At the same time, considering the societal structure where ultra-processed foods can easily become central in daily life, it is a warning that cannot be ignored.


2) What Exactly Are "Ultra-Processed Foods"? A Classification Beyond Nutritional Labels

Ultra-processed foods are not defined merely by nutritional components like "high calorie" or "high sugar." Generally categorized under the NOVA classification, these foods are treated as a group of products designed to maximize shelf life, palatability, and convenience by combining multiple additives (such as emulsifiers) and processed ingredients (sugar, fats, starches, etc.) under industrial processes. This NOVA classification was also used in the current study.


The Independent article also lists examples such as processed meats, sweets, frozen pizzas, sugary drinks, and snack foods.
In essence, these foods are designed more as "products" rather than meals made from scratch at home.


3) What Did the Study Do? NHANES 4,787 Participants, Dietary Records and Medical History from 2021 to 2023

The analysis focused on 4,787 individuals aged 18 and older from the NHANES (2021–2023), a representative health and nutrition survey in the United States. The study estimated the proportion of total energy intake from UPFs in participants' diets and divided them into four groups (quartiles) based on consumption levels. Cardiovascular disease was indicated by self-reported history of myocardial infarction or stroke, and after adjusting for age, gender, race/ethnicity, income indicators, and smoking, the group with the highest UPF intake had a relative risk of 1.47 (47% higher) compared to the group with the lowest intake.


Notably, the average UPF intake was "26.1% of total energy." UPFs are not just "junk examples" but can easily become a source of calories in the modern food environment.

 
Furthermore, a release from Florida Atlantic University highlights the concern that UPFs account for about 60% of adult and 70% of children's diets in the U.S.


4) Why Does Cardiovascular Risk Increase? It's Not Just About Salt, Sugar, and Fats

The Independent places this study in the context of "accumulating concerns" that UPFs may contain high levels of sodium, sugar, and undesirable fats, and could adversely affect the gut and heart, potentially contributing to cancer and early mortality risks.


However, the discussion around UPFs is challenging because it's not easy to simplify it to "adjust the nutrients and it's okay." Multiple pathways may be involved, such as processing methods, additives, eating speed, difficulty in achieving satiety, and eating behaviors (designed to encourage overeating). FAU's release also positions UPF reduction as a public health priority, citing associations with obesity, inflammation, and metabolic disorders.


5) How Did "Social Media React"? Focus on "Research Gaps" and "Definition Issues" Rather Than Agreement or Disagreement with the Numbers

This topic did not end on social media with "agreement" or "I knew it," but rather sparked discussions about the research design and definitions. For example, in a thread on r/science, an early comment pointed out, **"Isn't it missing strong confounding factors like weight or BMI?"


Additionally, "Plant-based/vegan meat substitutes and alternative foods often fall under ultra-processed. What are the health impacts?" was another question raised, highlighting the gap between food trends and classification.


Moreover, a comment with a hint of sarcasm noted, "The definition of 'ultra-processed' is not clear enough to be understood,"** revealing the communication challenges UPF research faces.


These are not mere nitpicks. UPF research often involves observational studies, which tend to show "associations" rather than "causal relationships." Therefore, the choice of control variables and the variability in defining "what and how much is included in UPFs" can influence how conclusions are received.


6) Limitations of This Study: Cannot Assert Causality, Barriers of Self-Reporting and Cross-Sectional Design

According to the abstract of the paper, cardiovascular disease is based on self-reported history (myocardial infarction or stroke), and UPF intake is based on dietary records.

 
Moreover, the covariates included in the adjustments were age, gender, race/ethnicity, income indicators, and smoking, but as pointed out on social media, the extent to which factors like body size (BMI) and exercise habits were considered is not clear, at least from the abstract alone.

 
This type of study is safer to interpret as a signal that "people with a lifestyle and eating habits high in UPFs have more cardiovascular diseases" rather than asserting "UPFs cause cardiovascular disease."


Still, it is not meaningless for society. This is because UPF consumption is not easily determined by individual will alone. The more conditions like "cheap," "ready to eat," and "sold nearby" are met, the more realistic a UPF-centered diet becomes.


7) What Should We Do? "Replacement Design" Works Better Than Going to Zero

The topic of UPFs tends to lead to extreme conclusions: "stop everything" or "it's impossible anyway." In reality, the following "replacement design" is more sustainable.

  • Replacing Staple Foods: Reduce days centered on instant noodles and sweet bread, and mix in more "ingredient-oriented" staples like rice, oatmeal, and potatoes.

  • Replacing Beverages: Reduce the frequency of sugary sodas and sweetened drinks from daily to less often, switching to water, unsweetened tea, or sparkling water.

  • Replacing Protein Sources: Lower the proportion of processed meats (sausages, etc.) and increase "less processed" forms like eggs, fish, legumes, and meat.

  • Redesigning "Convenience": Even with frozen foods, choose types where ingredients are visible and seasoning is not excessive, and add vegetables and fruits.


FAU's announcement also prominently suggests that healthcare providers should recommend reducing UPF intake to patients.
The key is to win with "the power of the environment" rather than "the power of will." Gradually move away from UPF dependency by changing staples, beverage staples, breakfast patterns, and the "default" of snacks.

8) Don't End with Just "Individual Effort": It Also Connects to Public Health and Policy Discussions

FAU's release also touches on the possibility that awareness and policy changes regarding UPFs could follow a path similar to past tobacco control efforts (though comparisons should be handled cautiously).

 
The spread of UPFs is backed by factors like time poverty, price differences, sales channels, advertising, and food environments in schools and workplaces. Simply pushing "individual responsibility" could also lead to the entrenchment of disparities.


Conclusion: The 47% Figure Is a Signal for "Design Change," Not "Fear"

The study indicates a strong association that "people who eat more ultra-processed foods have more cardiovascular diseases." While causality cannot be asserted, considering the current situation where UPFs are central to society's diet, there is sufficient basis for behavior design to reduce risk.
Discussions on social media (confounding of BMI, ambiguity of definitions, positioning of plant-based alternatives) are precisely points for concretizing "how to improve."

 
Instead of zero or 100, first "reduce frequency," "replace," and "change defaults." The accumulation of these small changes will benefit the future of the heart and blood vessels.


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