After the sharp decline in 2025, OPEC+ chose stability: The situation in Venezuela becomes a flashpoint

1) What happened? — Reconfirming "No Increase in Q1"

On January 4, OPEC+ confirmed in discussions among the major eight countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) that they will not increase production from January to March 2026 and will maintain the current policy. Despite political concerns surrounding member countries, the meeting ended quickly, highlighting a clear stance to prioritize "market stability" first. Reuters

This decision is not flashy. However, in the current crude oil market, "not being flashy" itself becomes a strong message. The reason is simple: **what the market is seeking is not "additional supply" but "stopping the piling up of uncertainties."**

2) Background: "The Sharp Decline of 2025" and "The Sense of Surplus in 2026"

It has been reported that crude oil in 2025 significantly lost value, marking the largest annual decline since 2020. On the supply and demand side, the atmosphere of "easy stockpiling" strengthened due to OPEC+ production increases, non-OPEC supply, and sluggish demand growth. Reuters

Restarting production increases in this situation would first lead to the psychological association of "there will be a surplus after all." This makes futures more likely to be sold, and "expectations" push down the market before actual demand. OPEC+'s decision to keep Q1 unchanged can be seen as a judgment to not add bearish factors in a market dominated by surplus concerns.

3) Why "Global Friction" Still Becomes a Focus — Venezuela and the Middle East

The complexity of this news lies in the simultaneous increase of "political variables" that cannot be fully explained by supply and demand alone.

Venezuela: Short-term "Stop" Risk, Long-term "Increase" Risk

Following reports on the U.S.-related political changes in Venezuela, there is awareness of the potential instability in the flow (export) of Venezuelan crude oil. In reality, there have been reports of exports halting and production being forced to decrease. Reuters

On the other hand, if political transition and improvement in the investment environment progress, there is an outlook that in a few years, production recovery could lead to "an increase in global supply," potentially becoming a factor to cap price increases.Reuters

In other words, Venezuela holds short-term upward spike factors (supply disruption) and long-term **downward pressure (supply recovery)**, possessing opposing forces simultaneously.

Middle East: Can "Oil Policy is Separate" Hold Despite Tensions?

Another issue is the political tension in the Middle East. Despite the friction between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, it is said that the traditional operation of "not bringing political issues into meetings and separating oil policy" worked within OPEC+. Reuters

However, there is no guarantee that this separation will continue. If tensions deepen, there remains a risk that it will become difficult to form agreements in the next production increase or decrease phase.

4) Market View: Short-term "Too Many Factors," Mid-term "Inventory and Demand"

Reports also conveyed that Brent and WTI remained in slight movements near the initial price of 2026. The National News
This symbolizes the current market sentiment that does not simply move with "hold = buy."

• Short-term: Prone to sharp rises with "supply disruption scenarios" like Venezuela, Russian sanctions, and regional conflicts

• Mid-term: If demand is sluggish, inventories build up, making it easy for a return to selling (the story of supply surplus prevails) Reuters

The market holds materials that can run both up and down. Therefore, OPEC+'s "hold" functions more as an expression of intent to suppress volatility rather than indicating direction.

5) Reactions on Social Media: Split into Three Main Groups

On social media (especially X), reactions were broadly divided into the following three types.

A) "Can the Bottom be Protected?" — Those Who See the Hold as "Support"

The hold was perceived with the word "freeze," and there was interest in whether **"the floor (bottom price) of crude oil can be maintained."** For example, there were posts questioning, "Will the floor break if demand falls?" while touching on the prospect of OPEC+ maintaining the Q1 hold. X (formerly Twitter)

B) "Geopolitics is Temporary, Ultimately It's Surplus" — Those Who Prioritize Supply and Demand

On the other hand, there were many calm views that "even if politics is turbulent, ultimately the supply surplus has more effect." This aligns with the structure shown by Reuters that "politics can influence the market, but surplus concerns are also strong." Reuters

C) "The Internal Affairs of OPEC+ Are the Scariest" — Those Who Doubt the Sustainability of Agreements

Amid tensions like those between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, there are voices questioning, "Even if they hold this time, won't it break next time?" Some interpreted the quick conclusion of the meeting as "just postponing the problem." Reuters

※The reactions on social media are organized as "trends" of such posts and opinions (the spread and representativeness of individual posts may vary over time).

6) Next Focus: February 1, and "Venezuela's Operations"

The future checkpoints are narrowed down to two.

1. Will the next meeting (February 1) provide a sense of direction for Q2 and beyond? Reuters

2. How will Venezuela's exports and production be resolved or return at the "ground level" (sanctions, insurance, settlements, diluents, tanker arrangements, etc.) Reuters

Ultimately, the crude oil market in 2026 is likely to be a simultaneous progression of "the force of surplus capping the ceiling" and "the force of geopolitics creating short-term spikes." OPEC+'s hold has the effect of "quieting down" that tug-of-war for the time being, but it is not the card that decides the outcome. The next move in the market might be determined more by inventory and tanker movements than by the statements from meetings.