Nvidia Re-enters the Chinese Market! Behind the Scenes of Resuming AI Chip Sales After Navigating Regulatory Waves

1. Introduction: The Meaning of "Whiplash"

The TechCrunch report on the 14th began with the strong term "regulatory whiplash." The U.S. Department of Commerce's export ban in April, the "partial retraction" within just a week, and the recent decision to grant licenses—regulations surrounding NVIDIA in early 2025 were a rollercoaster that threw off both investors and developers. TechCrunch

2. From Ban to Reapproval: A Timeline Review

April 2 The U.S. Department of Commerce completely halted exports of AI inference GPUs, including the H20, to China.
April 8 CEO Jensen Huang met with Trump at a $1 million per seat dinner in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. Tom's Hardware
April 15 NVIDIA announced a $500 billion AI server investment plan within the U.S. TechCrunch
May 28 At an earnings call, warned of a potential $13.5 billion loss over two quarters. TechCrunch
July 14 The U.S. government guaranteed the issuance of licenses, and NVIDIA announced the resumption of resale procedures on the same day.

3. Enthusiasm from the Chinese Side

Although the H20 is a "downgraded version" of the H100/H200 in terms of performance, it still leads Huawei's Ascend 910B in memory bandwidth and CUDA compatibility. Following the lifting of regulations, ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent immediately joined the application list, as reported by Reuters. Reuters
Semiconductor-related stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose by an average of 12% at the opening on the 15th, with China Electronics Corporation reaching the daily limit. 证券时报

4. Three Divergent Perspectives on Social Media

(1) China's Weibo

• "America's 'pine-bamboo-plum' GPU strategy. Next, they'll probably sell the plum rank" (@芯片观察)

• "Stock up while you can. The game is on until the next halt" (@量子位) 证券时报
  (2) U.S. Tech Investors on X (formerly Twitter)

• "$NVDA hits new highs. The market rejoices at the Trump administration's reversal" (@bill_baruch) X (formerly Twitter)

• "To make up for the time lost due to regulations, the only way is to enclose CUDA" (@StockMKTNewz) X (formerly Twitter)
  (3) Politicians and Think Tanks

• Bipartisan senators sent a letter to Mr. Huang urging him to refrain from meeting with military-related companies. Reuters

5. Why the H20 is a "Lose to Win" Chip

Performance The FP16 performance is only 35% of the H100, but with 80GB HBM3 and a 1.2TB/s bandwidth, it is sufficient for "inference projects" of Chinese AI models.
Ecosystem CUDA+TensorRT effectively encloses developers as a "de facto OS."
Regulatory Compliance Designed at a "delicate line" that avoids touching 1,100 GB/s I/O and over 1,400 GB/s memory bandwidth. TechCrunch

6. RTX PRO as "Insurance"

Simultaneously with the resale announcement, the company also unveiled the China-exclusive GPU "RTX PRO." It reduced computational precision for logistics/digital twin applications, creating a loophole in export control numbers. TechCrunch

7. Three Risks Seen by Investors

1. Policy Reversal The U.S. Congress criticized that "CEO Huang's lobbying has undermined national security." If regulations are tightened again, the H20 could disappear completely this time. Reuters

2. Huawei Pursuit It is reported that Huawei is preparing a CUDA-compatible framework "Qilin," and the stronghold in software is beginning to crumble.

3. The Bartering of U.S.-China Relations As "exchange conditions" like rare earth exports and EDA tool deregulation accumulate, semiconductors become political cards, causing price fluctuations. Tom's Hardware

8. Future Scenarios

• Optimistic Case: GPU shipments to China increase by 1.5 times compared to 2022, with a $20 billion revenue increase in fiscal year 2026.

• Base Case: License reviews are stalled on a case-by-case basis, with shipment recovery after the year-end.

• Pessimistic Case: The U.S. Congress includes CUDA provision as a regulatory target, and Huawei's Ascend 1200 captures market share.

9. Conclusion

The lifting of the H20 ban is only temporary relief for NVIDIA. However, as semiconductors are the "oil of the 21st century," political risks and revenue opportunities are always two sides of the same coin. It is certain that Jensen Huang's way of working as a "technician by day, diplomat by night" will continue for some time.