AI Bubble or New Infrastructure Revolution? The Current Status of the World's First $4 Trillion Company, NVIDIA

1. Historic Moment: Surpassing the $4 Trillion Barrier

On July 9 at 9:32 AM on the US West Coast, Nasdaq ticker "NVDA" briefly shone. Stock price at $164.92—at that moment, the market capitalization was $4.1 trillion. A height that even Apple, Microsoft, and Saudi Aramco have not reached. Reuters described it as "Wall Street's darling has finally stepped into another universe." Reuters

2. What Drove the Stock Price Up?

2-1 The "Foundation Mining Rights" of the Generative AI Boom

Just two and a half years since the release of ChatGPT. Over 70% of AI model training runs on NVIDIA GPUs, and demand has overheated to the point of chronic HBM memory shortages. The market calls NVIDIA the "pickaxe supplier during the gold rush." aktiencheck.de

2-2 Sovereign AI—An Era Where Nations Become Clients

Citi estimates a $50 billion market just for "government AI clouds" annually. Large contracts with Singapore, UAE, and Germany have already been reported. Bank of America analyzes that "the largest growth source lies in confidential areas that cannot be handled outside the cloud, such as military, public health, and judicial data." aktiencheck.deAP News

3. The Temperature Difference on Social Media: Celebration or Bubble?

• @TheStalwart"NVIDIA BECOMES FIRST COMPANY TO REACH $4 TRILLION MARKET CAP." X (formerly Twitter)

• @amritaroy2011"$NVDA just hit $4T. Already surpassing the combined total of $GOOG + $META!" X (formerly Twitter)

• @KobeissiLetter"Market cap up $3.5 trillion since the start of 2023. This is the largest asset inflation in history." X (formerly Twitter)

• Meanwhile, on the bulletin board Reddit r/stocks, cautionary opinions like "‘A house of cards that can collapse with a single TSMC production delay’" are also emerging.

While public opinion is divided, algorithmic traders remain bullish. The next day's trading volume swelled to 180% of the usual.

4. CEO Jensen Huang's "Profit-Taking"

Between July 8 and 10, Huang sold stocks worth a total of $36.4 million. However, it was a regular sale in line with a pre-submitted 10b5-1 plan to the SEC, and his top shareholder status remains unchanged. Concerns about selling out were limited. aktiencheck.de

5. A Macro Perspective: Examining the AI Bubble Theory

The Guardian remains calm, stating "The AI frenzy is reminiscent of the dot-com era." However, unlike back then, NVIDIA's gross margin is 78%, and its operating cash flow surpasses Apple's. The Times

6. Risk Factors

1. Supply Chain: Strain on TSMC CoWoS-L packaging capacity.

2. Regulation: Additional rounds of US government export restrictions to China.

3. Competition: Double precision performance of AMD "Instinct MI400" and Intel "Gaudi 4".

4. Overconfidence: Risk of being left behind in the era of general-purpose CPUs and NPUs due to specialization in GPUs.

7. Implications for Investors

MarketWatch observes, "After reaching $4 trillion, the next phase might be announcing dividend resumption or stock splits to absorb individual investors." Investment judgment is predominantly **"Long-Term Outperform"**, with an average target stock price of $210 in 12 months. MarketWatch

8. Conclusion: The GPU Empire as the "OS of the Industry"

Just as microprocessors created the OS for PCs and smartphone SoCs created the OS for mobile, NVIDIA GPUs are forming the OS for the generative AI era. The market has placed a $4 trillion price tag on this potential. While determining whether it's a bubble is not easy, the solid demand from nation-scale needs will be a decisive difference from past high-tech bubbles.