Red Line in East Asia: Conditions for the "Nuclear Button" Envisioned by Japan and the U.S. - Japan and America Discussing the Future of Nuclear Weapons

1. Introduction: The Day Japan and the U.S. Broached the "Final Taboo"

On the early morning of July 27, 2025, a breaking news report from Kyodo News spread rapidly: "Japan and U.S. Governments Discuss Nuclear Use Scenarios." The headline was brief, but the impact was significant. Japan, as the only country to have suffered atomic bombings during war, has consistently advocated for a "world without nuclear weapons." However, the security environment in East Asia presents a reality that can no longer be navigated by ideals alone. The report revealed that Japan and the U.S. had been aligning specific conditions and procedures for U.S. military nuclear use through tabletop exercises.

2. Behind the Scenes of the Discussions: What is the "Extended Deterrence Guideline"?

The guideline was formulated in December 2024, and while most of its provisions are classified, multiple sources indicate that its pillars include ① information sharing during nuclear use, ② accountability to public opinion, and ③ public relations strategy. A related party stated, "The era of Japan silently relying on the umbrella is over. Japan will be involved to a certain extent in nuclear decision-making."

However, the ultimate launch authority remains with the U.S. A senior official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs acknowledged the disparity in leadership, stating, "Japan's opinion is merely a 'weighty advisory opinion.'"

3. The Scenario of the Tabletop Exercise "Keen Edge 2024"

In the joint integrated exercise, during the third phase simulating a Taiwan contingency, China hinted at the use of tactical nuclear weapons. It was revealed that the Self-Defense Forces repeatedly requested the U.S. military to counter the "nuclear threat," and the U.S. side complied. The aim was to "ensure the credibility of deterrence against China," but there are concerns about the side effect of lowering the threshold for nuclear use.Kumanichi Electronic Edition | Kumamoto Nichinichi Shimbun

4. Government and Political Party Reactions

5. Social Media Reflects Public Division

• Concerned Faction

  • «sakurasuki» "Who will be the target? How many civilians will be sacrificed?"

  • «deanzaZZR» "If you're going to launch nukes, be prepared to be hit—it's a simple matter."

• Supportive Faction

  • «JboneInTheZone» "As long as you don't start a war, nukes won't be dropped. It's simple."

  • «TaiwanIsNotChina» "If neighboring countries threaten with nukes, deterrence is only natural."

Hashtags like <#NuclearSharing>, <#PrideOfABombedNation>, and <#JapanUSAlliance> trended simultaneously, with "the ideal of nuclear abolition" and "the realism of security" clashing on timelines.

6. Expert Perspectives: "Two Clocks Have Started Moving"

• Strategist Takuya Furuta (National Defense Academy)
  "Extended deterrence sets the 'nuclear deterrence clock' in motion, but within Japan, there is also a 'non-nuclear ideal clock.' When these two clocks start to turn in opposite directions, politics must explain the contradiction of the second hand."

• Representative of Hibakusha Organization, Teruo Tanaka
  "The fact that discussions proceeded in secrecy tramples on the historical lessons of a bombed nation."

7. International Repercussions

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned it as a "serious provocation towards an Asian NATO," North Korea issued a statement claiming "U.S. and Japan are inviting nuclear war," and Russian state media reported that "Japan condones preemptive nuclear use," using it for propaganda.

8. Legal and Ethical Issues

1. Consistency with Article 9 of the Constitution
   Even if Japan does not directly possess nuclear weapons, involvement in launch requests may approach "maintaining military forces," according to constitutional scholars.

2. NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) System
   The treaty stipulates that "non-nuclear-weapon states do not receive nuclear weapons," but the scope of extended deterrence is gray.

3. Moral Responsibility as a Bombed Nation
   Mayor Yasuyoshi Suzuki of Nagasaki commented, "This move goes against the milestone of 80 years since the bombing."

9. Future Scenarios and Policy Recommendations

• Ensuring Transparency—A public relations strategy balancing confidentiality and public understanding

• Continued Deliberation in the Diet—The ruling and opposition parties conduct public hearings and disclose the outline of the guidelines

• Explanation to Local Residents—Hold town hall meetings in municipalities with U.S. military bases in Japan

• Bridging with the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons—Consider observer participation and present the transparency of extended deterrence to the international community

10. Conclusion: From "Under the Umbrella" to "How to Fold the Umbrella"

With this report, Japan was inevitably led to peek inside the "nuclear umbrella." The tug-of-war between the reality of deterrence and the ideal of non-nuclear principles will continue. However, what is crucial is not letting the discussion sink below the surface. The experience and lessons of a bombed nation serve as the final brake to raise the threshold for nuclear use.

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