The True Nature of the "New Alliance" as Japan and South Korea Draw Closer in "Economic Security," Driven by Tensions with China

The True Nature of the "New Alliance" as Japan and South Korea Draw Closer in "Economic Security," Driven by Tensions with China

2026年01月16日 16:35

The handshake exchanged in Nara will not end as a mere "gesture of friendship." What Japan and South Korea are urgently trying to establish is not an extension of tourism or cultural exchange, but a more practical framework for cooperation based on "economic security" involving supply chains, advanced technologies, and critical minerals. Needless to say, the backdrop to this is the rising tensions with China.


1. The focus of the talks shifts from "economics" to "economic security"

In the recent summit, the emphasis was not on "amicably expanding" economic relations but on creating a robust system resilient to external shocks. Prime Minister Takaichi expressed the intention to advance discussions between relevant authorities to deepen cooperation in a strategic and mutually beneficial manner in both economic and economic security aspects. It is also reported that they delved into discussions on supply chain cooperation.


What is crucial here is that Japan and South Korea are beginning to face the "same challenges." Semiconductors, battery materials, critical minerals, and dual-use (civilian and military) technologies—these are difficult to ensure stable supply through market principles alone. As the possibility of China using export controls and regulatory tightening as diplomatic leverage becomes more apparent, the focus shifts from corporate-led procurement to adjustments within an intergovernmental framework.


2. Japan's aim: Avoiding isolation and "alliance of supply chains"

There are two reasons why Japan is hastening to strengthen ties with South Korea.


One is on the diplomatic front, where worsening relations with China make collaboration with neighboring countries a lifeline to "avoid isolation." The other is on the economic front, where there is an increasing need to reduce dependency on China in areas such as critical minerals and rare earths and to expand alternative procurement networks.


The article indicates that Japanese ministers are also discussing securing critical minerals with other advanced countries and that talks with the U.S. on defense are planned. In other words, Japan aims to advance "alliance" not only in military terms but also from the stages of resources, materials, and components. South Korea is a central candidate for this, given its robust semiconductor and materials industries, manufacturing capacity, and its alliance with the U.S.


3. South Korea's aim: Maintaining the U.S. alliance while not severing ties with China

South Korea, on the other hand, finds itself in a more complex position. South Korea's exports and supply chains with China remain substantial. However, leaning too heavily towards China could undermine trust in the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Conversely, aligning too closely with the U.S. could invite economic pressure from China.


President Lee has indicated that he does not intend to deeply involve himself in the Japan-China conflict, while also mentioning the necessity of cooperation among Japan, China, and South Korea. This is likely a pragmatic message seeking a "design not to be embroiled" rather than advocating "neutrality" or "equidistance." Even as Japan-South Korea economic security cooperation progresses, South Korea will not completely sever ties with China. The delineation of this balance will be a test of South Korean diplomacy.


4. The trigger was Taiwan remarks and a chain of China-related frictions

The deterioration of Japan-China relations is not due to isolated frictions but is said to be a chain of multiple issues, including export controls, travel advisories, and disputes over maritime rights. The structure in which Japanese remarks on the Taiwan situation provoked China's backlash, intensifying "pressure" in economic and diplomatic areas, symbolizes the current risks in East Asia.


In such a situation, as Japan and South Korea draw closer, China is wary of the "Japan-U.S.-South Korea unity." Meanwhile, from Japan's perspective, cooperation with South Korea adds "depth" to deterrence against China. Thus, the Japan-South Korea rapprochement serves as a defensive measure for the parties involved and a geopolitical signal to neighboring countries.


5. "Atmosphere creation" is a means, the goal is practical—The significance of symbolic gestures

During the talks, the leaders dined together and engaged in musical exchanges (drum performances), which became a topic of discussion. Such gestures are often dismissed as "light performances," but they should not be underestimated as trust-building measures before practical negotiations. Politics requires not only agreements on paper but also mechanisms to convey to the public that "relations are moving."


Especially between Japan and South Korea, historical issues and public backlash can easily become bottlenecks to cooperation. Therefore, the role of soft symbols is significant before delving into hard security and economic security discussions.


6. Reactions on social media: A three-layer structure of welcome, caution, and "jokes"

Reactions on social media were broadly divided into three layers.


(1) The "We have no choice but to cooperate" group

The most common reaction prioritized geopolitical risks and economic rationality, with evaluations like "Japan and South Korea cannot afford to quarrel" and "Joint defense of supply chains is necessary." Given the mutual complementary relationship in semiconductors, batteries, and materials, the view that it is natural for politics to expedite environmental improvements has spread.


(2) The "Isn't this just deferring historical and sovereignty issues?" group

Meanwhile, those familiar with past frictions are more cautious. There is a strong sense of caution with sentiments like "Relations will cool again if circumstances change" and "Unfavorable points are shelved under the name of economic security." While acknowledging the necessity of cooperation, there is distrust that relationship improvement will be consumed solely as a "card against China."


(3) Comments and dissemination on "cultural performances"

Another noticeable reaction was the lighthearted responses to the musical exchanges between the leaders. Favorably, it was perceived as "an understandable sign of closing distances" and "such softness is necessary in diplomacy," while critically, it was dismissed as "more about performance than substance" and "a domestic pressure release." However, such topics have strong dissemination power and, as a result, help broaden awareness of the talks themselves.


7. Future focus: Can "words" of cooperation be transformed into "systems"?

The future focus will be on how much the "supply chain cooperation" and "economic security" discussed during the talks can be institutionalized. Specifically, the following points are becoming more realistic.


  • Will joint stockpiling and coordination in third-country procurement advance in the procurement network for critical minerals and rare earths?

  • Can the weaknesses of mutual dependence (parts leaning towards one side) in semiconductors, battery materials, equipment, and human resources be compensated?

  • How will alignment in dual-use regulations and export controls be achieved (too much coordination may provoke China, while too lax may create loopholes)?

  • How will the frameworks of Japan-U.S.-South Korea and Japan-South Korea bilateral relations be differentiated?


Another aspect is the political schedule. In Japan, there are reports of potential dissolution and general elections, and approval ratings and domestic political dynamics could influence external stances. For South Korea, failing to balance relations with China and the U.S. could have economic repercussions and become a headwind for governance.


8. Conclusion: Japan-South Korea rapprochement is "crisis response" rather than "ideal"

It is easy to narrate the Japan-South Korea rapprochement as a "story of reconciliation." However, the reality is closer to crisis response than idealism. Facing the massive economic zone of China, they aim to reduce dependence and withstand pressures. South Korea seeks practical benefits without getting embroiled. Japan aims to avoid isolation while strengthening ties with allied and friendly countries.


The moment their interests align, the relationship moves. Conversely, if the external environment changes, there is room for the relationship to cool again. Therefore, what is being questioned now is not the continuation of "friendship." The challenge is whether they can translate agreements into systems. What Japan and South Korea need to demonstrate next is not a photo of a handshake, but the "implementation" of supply chains and economic security.


Reference URL


Reference Article

Japan and South Korea seek to strengthen ties amid rising tensions with China
Source: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/global-economics/japan-south-korea-seek-deeper-ties-as-china-tensions-rise

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