Gasoline and Diesel Prices in India on June 17, 2025 - The "Unexpected Convergence" Seen Compared to the Current Situation in Japan

Table of Contents

1. Details and Background of the Latest Prices in India

2. Reading Japan's Gasoline and Diesel Prices through Data

3. Exchange Rates and Tax Systems Creating "Nominal Reversal"

4. Comparison of Price Composition Breakdown

5. Impact on Industry, Logistics, and Households

6. Cross Analysis of Crude Oil Market Conditions and Policy Trends

7. The Future Indicated by the Progress of EV and Renewable Energy Shift

8. Perceived Prices and Psychology of Users in Both Countries

9. Future Scenarios and Risk Factors

10. Summary: Approaching Prices, Diverging Structures

1. Details and Background of the Latest Prices in India

1‑1 Market Conditions in Major Four Cities

In Delhi, gasoline is 94.77 ₹/L, in Mumbai 103.50 ₹/L, in Chennai 100.80 ₹/L, and in Kolkata 105.41 ₹/L. Diesel remains stable at 87.67–92.39 ₹/L for almost three months. Since the approximately 2 rupee price cut in March 2024, there have been no significant fluctuations even with daily revisions by state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs), and consumers are experiencing a "stable period."

Point: In India, "city-specific display" of prices is common. As prices are composed of federal and state taxes, crossing state borders can change the price per liter by a few yen.

1‑2 Tax Rate Revision and Price Stability

The Modi administration successively cut the "special surcharge" in 2022 and 2024, and each state also reduced VAT. As a result, retail prices remained unchanged even during periods of high crude oil prices. The background to India's ability to maintain price stability, despite an 80% import dependency, includes three pillars: ① tax reductions, ② rupee defense measures, and ③ long-term contracts with oil-producing countries.

In simple terms, the government slightly loosened the "tax tap" and secured exchange rates and supply routes to prevent pump prices from rising.

2. Reading Japan's Gasoline and Diesel Prices through Data

2‑1 National Average and Latest Trends

As of June 16, the national average was gasoline 166.4 yen/L, diesel 146.2 yen/L. This marks a slight decrease for the third consecutive week, and compared to the end of April, it is ▲9 yen/L. The background includes the government's increase in the upper limit of the "drastic change mitigation subsidy," which means retail prices only move gently even when crude oil market conditions fluctuate wildly.

2‑2 Positioning of the Weekly Survey by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy

These figures are the results of the **"Gas Station Retail Price Survey"** published every Wednesday by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy. Since the subsidy amount is calculated based on this statistic, it effectively functions as a "policy price."

Point: In Japan, the "national average" makes the news, but on remote islands and highways, an additional 20 to 30 yen/L is not uncommon.

3. "Nominal Reversal" Caused by Exchange Rates and Tax Systems

3-1 Actual Prices Viewed in Rupee-Yen Conversion

When converted at an exchange rate of 1 ₹ ≒ 1.68 yen, gasoline in India is approximately 160–177 yen/L, and diesel is approximately 148–156 yen/L. This calculation is almost the same or slightly higher than the Japanese average.

3-2 Breaking Down the Differences in Tax Burden Rates

In Japan,taxes account for about 51% of the price per liter. There is a double taxation structure where consumption tax is also applied to gasoline tax. On the other hand, in India, even when combining federal and state taxes, it's about 40–50%. However, there is a large disparity between states, leading to "reversal of heights" between cities.

To put it simply,Japan has a nationwide "fixed price sale." In India, there is a "prefectural discount," but prices can spike in neighboring states, creating a "domino price" effect.

4. Breakdown Comparison of Price Composition

In both countries, costs accumulate from crude oil→refining→distribution→sales, but Japan uses "subsidies" to smooth out fluctuations in crude oil prices, while India adjusts through "tax exemptions."

• Crude oil cost … Japan 35%, India 38%

• Refining cost … Japan 14%, India 17%

• Distribution & Sales … Both around 10%

• Tax           … Japan 51%, India 35-45%

• Subsidy       … Japan equivalent to ▲5-10 yen/L, India 0
  
  

To put it simply, Japan uses a "rebate part of the taxes paid later" system, while India employs a "lower the tax rate from the start" approach.

5. Impact on Industry, Logistics, and Households

• Industry: India's transportation cost is twice that of Japan's in terms of GDP ratio. If fuel prices remain high, food prices rise immediately.

• Logistics: Japan's diesel subsidy is a "lifeline" to avoid deficits in the trucking industry. Fuel surcharge is down 3% year-on-year.

• Households: The ratio of fuel expenditure to disposable household income is about 6% in India and 2.5% in Japan. The actual "pain" is greater in India.

6. Cross-analysis of Crude Oil Market Conditions and Policy Trends

Brent crude is stagnant at 70-75 dollars. OPEC+ additional production cut talks and Middle East geopolitical risks are disruptive factors. Both countries are preserving the "strategic reserve release card", but the degree of price linkage changes depending on the exchange rate.

7. Future Indicated by Progress in EV and Renewable Energy Shift

In India, two-wheeler EVs are rapidly increasing with the FAME-II subsidy, while Japan aims for a 30-40% ratio of new passenger car EVs by 2030. As demand structure changes, a review of the tax base is inevitable.

8. Perceived Prices and Psychology of Users in Both Countries

SNS analysis shows that in Japan, the majority say "it's expensive but we're used to it," while in India, "it's settled but still heavy compared to salaries" is the prevalent sentiment. Search trends in India show a sharp rise in "cheapest petrol pump near me."

9. Future Scenarios and Risk Factors

1. Scenario A: High crude oil prices & subsidy reduction → Japan rises, India remains flat.

2. Scenario B: Accelerated yen depreciation → Nominal surge in Japan, real burden increases.

3. Scenario C: Accelerated EV adoption → Tax system reorganization due to reduced demand, shift away from gasoline progresses.
   
   

The key is policy speed. Both countries need a clever approach to "broaden the tax base while keeping the burden low."

10. Summary—Converging Prices, Diverging Structures

Even if the per-liter prices in both countries are coincidentally at the same level,the "composition" of costs and taxes inside is entirely different.In the short term, exchange rates, and in the long term, decarbonization strategies will create a decisive difference. To protect households and industries, it is essential to focus not only on prices but also on the "content."

List of Reference Articles

• NDTV Profitndtvprofit.com

• gogo.gs "〖Aggregation Report〗National Average Gasoline Price as of June 16, 2025 (Monday)" gogo.gs

• x-rates.com "Currency Exchange Table (Indian Rupee – INR)" x-rates.com

• Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
  "Petroleum Product Price Survey Gas Station Retail Price Survey Results List"enecho.meti.go.jp

• On June 17, gasoline and diesel prices remain unchanged: What are the current fuel prices?