EU "Commits" to Supporting Ukraine in 2026–27 — Belgium Questions the Weight of "Solidarity Guarantee"

On October 23 (local time), the EU summit held in Brussels aligned on the political message of supporting Ukraine's financial and military funding needs for 2026-2027 as a collective EU effort. However, the "funding design" remains unclear. The core agenda was the "Reparation Loan" plan, which aims to leverage frozen assets of the Russian central bank to generate approximately €140 billion (about $160 billion). The conclusion has been postponed to December. aktiencheck.de

What Was Agreed and What Was Shelved

The principle agreed upon was to "meet Ukraine's urgent funding needs for 2026-27 as the EU." The European Council requested the European Commission to present concrete funding options by the December meeting. The basic stance of maintaining the freeze on assets under sanctions against Russia "until the end of the war and reparations are made" was also reaffirmed. While the use of interest income is progressing within the existing G7 framework, the handling of the principal remains legally challenging. European Council

The "Key" Held by Belgium

One of the issues is geographical bias. Since a large portion of the frozen assets is concentrated in Euroclear in Brussels, there is a concern that any liability might fall disproportionately on Belgium. Prime Minister Bart De Wever demanded "EU-wide solidarity guarantees," stating, "If things go awry and Russia demands the return of assets, Belgium cannot bear the €140 billion alone." He pointed out legal risks and the possibility of retaliation, putting a brake on hasty agreements. euronews

What is the "Reparation Loan"?

The core of the concept is to raise large-scale funds by the EU using frozen assets as collateral, without depleting the "principal itself" of the assets. The mechanism is that Ukraine will repay the EU when Russia pays war reparations in the future. Conversely, unless Russia pays, the assets remain frozen for a long time, accompanied by the risk of legal battles and impacts on financial stability. The ECB's cautious stance and the principle of sovereign immunity under international law also limit the freedom of political decisions. AP News

On-the-Ground "Temperature": Reactions on Social Media

• Pro-Ukraine accounts are notably urging the "implementation" of the principle agreement, stating, "The agreement is a step forward, but without actual funding, both the front lines and finances won't hold" (e.g., Kyiv Independent quickly reported that Belgium is seeking risk-sharing). X (formerly Twitter)

• In the European legal community, there are concerns about "sovereign immunity of central bank assets and the risk of third-country capital flight." The use of interest is likened to "walking on thin ice," while confiscating the principal is described as "breaking the ice." Media outlets repeatedly point out the high legal and financial risks. AP News

• Posts capturing domestic opinion in Belgium show a clash between fiscal nationalism, questioning "why only Brussels should bear the risk," and solidarity arguments that "Europe's credibility depends on burden-sharing." Euronews summarized the Prime Minister's stance as "no approval without guarantees." euronews

• On the other hand, skeptical and pro-Russian posts strongly criticize the move as "confiscation is theft" and "destruction of the international financial order." In response, the EU is disseminating information cards explaining "it's a loan, not confiscation," and "interest utilization is a predetermined course." AP and The Guardian also clarify that "the interest on the assets is used within the existing framework, while confiscation remains undecided." AP News

Why "2026-27" Now?

While EU support for Ukraine continues through 2025, the wavering U.S. foreign stance and fiscal constraints of European countries make medium-term (two-year) funding commitments indispensable. The current agreement provides "planning capability" for Ukraine's budget formulation and defense procurement. Official communications from the EU Neighbourhood Policy also show significant expenditures already made by 2025, positioning the 2026-27 framework as an extension of that trajectory. EU NEIGHBOURS east

Focus Going Forward: Homework Until December

1. Legal Stability: Evaluation of the inviolability principle of central bank assets, international private law, and retaliation risks.

2. Risk-Sharing Mechanism: Design of guarantee schemes among member states. Avoiding "sole burden on Belgium" is a prerequisite.

3. Market Practices: Issuance and credit costs under the eurozone interest rate environment, impact on credit ratings.

4. External Messaging: Template for legal and political rebuttals to Russia's "countermeasures" rhetoric.

5. Alternative Plans: Increased contributions, EU budget reallocation, and use of EIB/EFSF-like measures if loans are not achieved. If these are not fully addressed, funding arrangements at the beginning of next year will again be precarious.
   Reuters

Editorial Perspective: A Victory for Realism or a Postponement of Decisions?

The current "principle agreement + postponement of details" reflects the realism of European politics. While the commitment to continued support was demonstrated, the tug-of-war between the rule of law and financial stability continues. The market received the signal that "the EU will not abandon Ukraine," yet uncertainty remains until December as long as the final design of the massive scheme is unclear. What Ukraine needs is not declarations but a feasible financial flow. The European Commission's December proposal will be the watershed. AP News