"The Croissant Crisis 2025" - The "Golden Butter" Shock Shaking the World

The bakery "Mamiche" in Paris' 9th arrondissement is busy rewriting the price tags for butter right after opening. The price of a croissant has finally risen from 2.0 euros last autumn to 2.3 euros this morning—everyone is facing an unavoidable reality.〔infomoney.com.br〕

The main reason for the price surge is the reduction in stocks in Europe and New Zealand, which account for about 70% of global exports. By early 2025, the refrigerators in both regions will have only the "thinnest layer in a decade," and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) described it as a "historically low level."〔infomoney.com.brfao.org〕

The biggest reason for the shortage of milk fat is the sharp rise in raw milk costs. With feed, fuel, and labor costs rising simultaneously, dairy farmers have no choice but to trade at high prices to make a profit. Manufacturers are diverting raw milk to cheese, which has a larger profit margin, resulting in a relative shortage of cream for butter.〔bloomberg.com〕

Adding to the pressure are livestock diseases—regions affected by diseases like bluetongue have expanded from northern Italy to central France, forcing the culling of cattle. The FAO's dairy report points out that "European butter production is at its lowest level in eight years."〔fao.org〕

While supply is shrinking, demand is rising, especially in Asia. The USDA's short-term outlook forecasts a 2.7% increase in global butter consumption in 2025, with China expected to see a 6% rise. Bloomberg argues that "demand has entered a phase where it consistently exceeds production."〔bloomberg.com〕

The popular Hong Kong shop "Bakehouse" has changed suppliers three times in a year. The Swiss chef-owner says, "Chinese products still tend to crack easily. For stable supply, we have to rely on Europe or NZ," but the price is almost 1.5 times higher than last year.〔finance.yahoo.com〕

The bistro "Morchella" in London's Clerkenwell has replaced its signature "burnt butter and homemade bread" with an olive oil and herb dip. The chef reveals, "It's a time when melting 100g of butter hurts the wallet."〔bloomberg.com〕

There are also moves to turn the butter shortage into a business opportunity. Startups in Europe and the US are rapidly developing "craft butter alternatives" by fermenting vegetable and coconut oils and adding dairy flavors. Investors are keenly interested in "sustainable fats."〔bloomberg.com〕

However, artisans remain steadfast in their commitment. One MOF (Meilleur Ouvrier de France) pastry chef asserts, "With alternative fats that have different moisture content and melting points, you can't recreate the unique layers of a croissant." Social media is also flooded with sentiments like "I won't eat margarine" and "Even if prices rise, I want the real thing."〔finance.yahoo.com〕

In Japan, the wave of price increases shows no sign of stopping. Major manufacturer Meiji announced that from July 1, it will raise the prices of seven butter and fat products by 3-11% and ice cream by 5-9%. The news, which hits household budgets, quickly trended on X (formerly Twitter) with the hashtag "#バター値上げ" (butter price increase).〔meiji.co.jpfnn.jp〕

Convenience store chains are steering towards a "stealth price increase" strategy. Seven-Eleven reduced the number of mini croissants from five to four, and Lawson reduced the content of frozen bread by 10% while keeping the price unchanged. Consumers are sharing their protests with the tag "#内容量減りすぎ" (too much reduction in content).〔news.mynavi.jp〕

The ripple effect extends to café chains. Starbucks Japan has raised the price of its "Butter Caramel Scone" by 30 yen while transitioning it to a seasonal offering. The trend of "menu engineering" to adjust with baked goods, which have a lower customer unit price than Frappuccinos, has become prominent.〔news.mynavi.jp〕

Conversely, in the affluent market, "scarcity value" is paradoxically becoming a brand. The long-established "Maison Kayser" in Paris sells 10,000 croissants a day even at a pre-tax price of 3 euros. Posts about "favorite bakeries" on social media function as free PR.〔infomoney.com.br〕

In East Asia, health-conscious consumers are turning to "ghee." The butter oil originating from India and Nepal has a high smoke point, and the popularity of Ayurveda is also a tailwind. The subscription service "ButterBox," which started in Yoyogi-Uehara, Tokyo, differentiates itself by alternating between NZ A2 butter and ghee.〔bloomberg.com〕

The impact of climate change is also severe. Northern Europe is experiencing mild winters, reducing the protein content of grass, while Australia faces droughts, and Argentina suffers from floods and extreme weather, making feed quality and yield unpredictable. The FAO emphasizes in its report that "the dairy industry urgently needs to adapt to the 'new normal.'"〔fao.org〕

The butter price index reached 225 points in April this year, the highest since the FAO began collecting statistics. It rose again slightly in June, with the summary stating, "There are no signs of peaking out."〔fao.org〕

The driving force on the demand side is the expansion of the middle-income class. On the delivery app "Dingdong Maicai" in Shanghai, China, the handling volume of the croissant category has increased 2.2 times in one year. The reviews on the app are filled with high praise, saying, "If you bake it at home, it tastes just like a café."〔bloomberg.com〕

The Mandarin Oriental in Taipei, Taiwan, has switched to live baking handmade croissants at its breakfast buffet, setting an additional charge of 200 NT dollars due to the demonstration effect. Nevertheless, guest satisfaction reportedly increased.〔bloomberg.com〕

In Seoul, South Korea, a hybrid menu called "croissant fried chicken" has emerged. The outside is crispy, and inside is garlic butter. Online, it has become a topic of conversation, with people saying, "It's expensive, but worth the wait," and the high price is paradoxically enhancing the experiential value.〔bloomberg.com〕

The restructuring of the global supply chain is also progressing. The air transport volume of butter has increased by 15% compared to pre-COVID levels. In addition to the railway network within Europe, NZ products take a complex route via frozen containers from the US West Coast → land transport → Houston → Europe, driving up transportation costs.〔bloomberg.com〕

Logistics companies are introducing AI to optimize the temperature range of reefer containers to reduce CO₂ emissions. However, with the surge in electricity prices, cooling costs are added, leading to a vicious cycle where retail prices are ultimately passed on to consumers.〔bloomberg.com〕

The European Commission has begun considering export restrictions outside the region. An unofficial memo from the French Ministry of Agriculture explicitly states, "Prioritize supply and demand within the region and transition to an export license system in emergencies." If implemented, international prices will become even more unstable.〔bloomberg.com〕

Price increases are also cascading within Brazil. A confectionery chain in São Paulo state is trying lard as a substitute for butter in pastel dough, but "the flavor is heavy," leading to customer attrition. Local newspapers are filled with lamentations tagged "#manteiga."〔jcagudos.com.br〕

Mexican ice cream makers are promoting a new recipe with plant-based fats under the brand "Helado sin mantequilla." On TikTok, positive reviews like "It's actually light and delicious" are going viral, penetrating the younger demographic. Some companies are opting for recipe innovation over price increases.〔tiktok.com〕

According to a household survey by Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, butter expenditure per household is projected to increase from 5,170 yen in 2024 to 5,932 yen in 2025. While the ratio of margarine is rising for the second consecutive year, spending on ghee and organic butter is also increasing, indicating a polarization trend.〔news.mynavi.jp〕