Bitcoin Price Crash: Is the Halving Bubble Over? Three Realities Highlighted by the Bitcoin Plunge

1. "Crash Mode" Below $100,000

In November 2025, the Bitcoin market was enveloped in a genuine sense of "fear" for the first time in a while.
Bitcoin, which had once risen to nearly $120,000 and was even said to have the $200,000 mark within reach, broke below the psychological threshold of $100,000 in just a few days and is currently trading in the low $90,000 range.X (formerly Twitter)

The German economic magazine WirtschaftsWoche (WiWo) described this market as "Bitcoin has entered crash mode" and posed the question, "Is the cryptocurrency boom over?" The article's teaser also mentioned that "even the bulls are revising their forecasts downward," hinting at the spread of cautious sentiment even among those who have praised Bitcoin as "digital gold."de.linkedin.com

On the other hand, if you only look at the price chart, this sudden drop can be seen as "business as usual" in Bitcoin's history. Bitcoin has experienced 30-80% crashes multiple times in the past, each time taking several years to reach new highs.
So, what is different about this crash? And how low could it go?

2. What Happened: The Largest "Wipeout"

The immediate trigger for this crash was a chain of "risk-off" movements linked to the stock market.
According to some reports, the entire cryptocurrency market experienced liquidations worth tens of billions to hundreds of billions of dollars in just 24 hours, described as the "largest wipeout in 24 hours." There are estimates of a roughly 12% drop in a single day, and some altcoins saw declines of over 20%.finanzen.net

Several factors are at play in the background.

• High Interest Rates + Economic Slowdown Concerns
  Interest rates in major countries remain high, and central banks are not backing down from their stance to curb inflation. When the preference for safe assets strengthens, highly volatile Bitcoin is among the first to be sold off.finanzen.net

• Trade and Fiscal Uncertainty of the Trump Administration
  Uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies, such as tariff hikes and fiscal negotiations, has cooled the entire stock market, with Nasdaq experiencing one of its largest drops since October. In tandem with this, risk money was withdrawn en masse from the cryptocurrency market.finanzen.net

• Excessive Leverage and Chain Liquidations
  In the derivatives market, a large amount of leveraged longs had accumulated at all-time high levels. When prices plummeted, automatic liquidations occurred in an avalanche due to insufficient margin, creating a "negative spiral" that further pushed down prices. It is said that this time, positions on the scale of one million were forcibly closed in a short period.finanzen.net

As a result, the symbolic line of $100,000 was easily breached on the chart, and terms like "crash mode" and "capitulation" began to circulate among traders.X (formerly Twitter)

3. Disappointment Over "Weak Halving"

WiWo and other financial media emphasize that "the price movement after this halving is the weakest in history."

Data from the past three halvings shows that Bitcoin prices rose by hundreds to thousands of percent in the year following the event. In the first halving in 2012, it reportedly rose by about 7,000%, by about 291% in 2016, and around 500% in 2020.finanzen.net

However, one year after the latest halving in April 2024, Bitcoin has only risen by a little over 40%, being labeled as the "weakest post-halving performance in history."finanzen.net

Analysts cite the following structural changes as reasons for this "lackluster" price movement.

1. The Presence of Spot ETFs
   In the past, the balance between miners' selling pressure and supply reduction directly impacted prices, but now institutional investors' trades through spot ETFs hold significant weight. The inflow and outflow of funds into ETFs may be diluting the "supply shock" derived from halving.finanzen.net

2. Interest Rate Rise and Reevaluation of "Digital Gold"
   In the era of zero interest rates, Bitcoin was held as an "inflation hedge" or a "gold alternative." However, in the current situation where government bonds offer high yields, more investors are likely to think, "Why hold volatile Bitcoin when you can have safe yield assets?"finanzen.net

3. Growth Slowdown Due to Scale Expansion
   With Bitcoin's market capitalization reaching the trillion-dollar scale, it is unrealistic to expect the same tens of times increase as in the past. Market participants' expectations are gradually shifting from "10 times quickly" to "2-3 times over several years."99Bitcoins

These factors combined mean that the "myth" of "a big market will come this year because of the halving" must, at least in this cycle, come to terms with reality.

4. How Low Could It Go: Technical & Scenario Analysis

So, how low could Bitcoin actually go?
WiWo appears to have organized several price scenarios by looking back at past adjustment phases. Let's try to organize them based on publicly available information.

Scenario A: Typical "Adjustment in a Bull Trend" Pattern

In past bull markets, adjustments of about 20-30% from the all-time high have occurred multiple times. Assuming the recent all-time high is around $120,000, a 30% drop would be around $84,000.wiwo.de

• Current: Low $90,000s

• 20% Drop: $96,000

• 30% Drop: $84,000

If it stops falling within this range ($96,000 to $84,000), the long-term trend can still be interpreted as a "deeper dip in the middle of a bull market."

Scenario B: If Macro Factors Worsen and It Clearly Falls Below $80,000

Some media and analysts see around $88,000 as a critical support level, warning that if it breaks below this, adjustments to the $70,000 range could come into view.fr.de

In that case,

• Further adjustments in the stock market

• Large-scale fund outflows from Bitcoin ETFs

• Overlapping regulatory risks and macro shocks (such as geopolitical risks)

are the "double and triple shocks" that can be anticipated. If it collapses to this extent, even some of the bulls may be forced to sell, and "Bitcoin is over" theories will once again flood social media.

Scenario C: The Peak of a Long-Term Cycle, Entering a Multi-Year Bear Market

A more pessimistic view suggests that "this crash is not just an adjustment but a 'peak confirmation' of a new four-year cycle."
In past cycles, there have been instances where a roughly 80% crash from the peak formed a long-term bottom range. Assuming $120,000 as the peak, an 80% drop would leave room for a decline to $24,000.

This extreme scenario is merely a "worst-case" desk calculation, but if the market fully shifts to risk-off, and ETFs, miners, and long-term holders (HODLers) all start selling, theoretically, it's not impossible.

5. The Divide Between "Fear" and "Opportunity" on Social Media

This crash has also become a major topic on social media.
On X (formerly Twitter), "#BitcoinCrash" and "#BTC" have trended, with timelines largely divided into three types of voices.

① Panic Group:

• "Finally below $100,000, this is the beginning of the end."

• "Leveraged longs evaporated overnight."

Such cries fill the posts. News accounts repeatedly post that "Bitcoin fell below $100,000, accelerating panic selling," with some even using the expression "the crypto winter has returned."X (formerly Twitter)

② Calm Group:

Meanwhile, long-time holders and on-chain analysis accounts

• "Compared to past crashes, this decline rate is still mild."

• "Now that the fear and greed index has dropped to around 25, it's a mid-to-long-term buying opportunity."

are sending out such messages. One column points out the surge in Google Trends searches for "Bitcoin crash," arguing that "when the search term 'crash' increases, that's when opportunities arise for calm investors."Medium

③ Meme & Sarcasm Group:

Additionally, true to