"AI Will Cure Cancer, So I Smoke"? Statements from the US Tech Industry Reflecting "Overconfidence in the Future"

"Someday AI will cure cancer. If that's the case, isn't it okay to smoke now?"

The expectation of future technology becomes a reason to take on current health risks. Such thinking has become a topic of discussion in the U.S. tech world.

On October 12, U.S. media outlet Gizmodo covered the story of people who smoke due to a strong belief in AI. However, as the article cautions from the start, it's premature to take this as "smoking is rampant among AI researchers."

What we want to consider this time is not just how many people are engaging in such eccentric behavior. The issue is when the expectation of medical advances turns into the misconception that "it's okay not to worry about health now."

The origin was a statement criticizing overconfidence in AI

According to Gizmodo, the trigger was a statement by Sham Sankar, CTO of Palantir, on CBS's program "Face the Nation."

In a context criticizing the almost religious attitude towards AI, he mentioned researchers who started smoking to demonstrate their strong trust in AI to those around them.

The reasoning is that by the time they get cancer, AI should be able to treat it, so they smoke to show their confidence in the future.

What should be noted here is that Sankar did not recommend smoking. Gizmodo introduces this statement as a warning against excessive expectations of AI.

Moreover, the article does not provide surveys or statistics to indicate how widespread this behavior is. It is unclear who started smoking, how many people, and for what reasons.

The fact that the statement was made and the phenomenon described in the statement exists widely need to be verified separately.

The story of "tobacco as a work weapon" mixed with expectations of AI

Gizmodo also touches on a Business Insider article dealing with smoking in Silicon Valley as related reporting.

The article introduced the idea that in some parts of the tech industry, cigarettes appear in work and social settings and are talked about as a means to enhance productivity.

In that context, entrepreneur Avi Schiffmann reportedly made a statement about his smoking, suggesting that by the time he gets lung cancer, AI robots should be able to cure it.

However, different stories are overlapping here.

Smoking as a break from work. Smoking for socializing with peers. Feeling more focused. And smoking relying on future treatments. Each has different motivations and points to verify.

Just because an entrepreneur's statement is striking doesn't mean it can be extended to the entire industry's health views or the common understanding among researchers. The narrative of "people creating the future are smoking" is eye-catching but does not serve as evidence of the safety of smoking or its effectiveness at work.

Reactions on social media include humorous posts and strong optimism

The reactions on X introduced by Gizmodo have at least two different tones.

One is a post by "@beep1984" responding to Sankar's statement with the idea of starting to smoke, which the article treats with the possibility of being a joke.

The other is a post by Mohammed Fayaz Salim, who stated that since he started believing that almost any health issue would be resolved by the 2030s, he has become less cautious about health risks.

What can be read from the latter is that confidence in future medical care can influence current behavior and caution. However, this is the individual's outlook and not a medically established prediction.

It should be noted that the social media reactions introduced here are summaries of posts featured by Gizmodo. The true intentions of the posters, their actual smoking behavior, and the overall approval or disapproval on social media cannot be confirmed.

In short posts, irony, jokes among friends, provocation, and genuine beliefs can be expressed in similar words. It is also unclear whether those who wrote "start smoking" actually did so. Those introducing the reactions should maintain this ambiguity.

AI has the potential to advance medicine. The question is what conclusions to draw from that

There is actual research backing the expectation that AI will be useful in cancer research.

The U.S. National Cancer Institute (NCI) introduces areas of AI application, such as support for detection and diagnosis using images, analysis of tumor characteristics, and support for the development of new drugs. The technology to find patterns from large amounts of data could assist researchers and doctors.

However, there is a significant gap between "improving parts of research and diagnosis" and "definitely curing diseases one might contract in the future."

Technology that makes it easier to find abnormalities from images is not, by itself, a technology that cures diseases. Finding drug candidates is also different from confirming that the drug can be used safely and effectively in humans. The NCI also lists verification when connecting research to actual clinical practice and evaluating benefits for patients as challenges.

At least, the anecdotes and social media posts introduced in this article do not support the outlook that "almost all health problems will be solved by the 2030s."

The hidden conditions within "should be curable"

Decisions to increase current risks relying on future medical care involve multiple assumptions.

That a treatment will be completed before one gets sick. That the treatment will be effective for one's illness. That it will be available when needed. And that any pain or impact on life until treatment is within an acceptable range.

Expectations for new technology alone cannot guarantee these one by one.

Even if future treatment results for a disease greatly improve, it does not necessarily mean the burden of contracting that disease will disappear. Anxiety until diagnosis, the time required for hospital visits, and the impact on work and family life are considerations beyond the success of treatment.

"It should be curable someday" and "It's okay to increase risks now" do not mean the same thing.

When considering smoking, it's not just about lung cancer

In this topic, the risks of smoking tend to be reduced to the single point of "might get lung cancer in the future."

However, the National Cancer Center explains that smoking causes various cancers, including lung cancer. Even if one does not smoke, secondhand smoke exposure can cause lung cancer.

The WHO also lists cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, in addition to cancer, as health damages from tobacco.

In other words, even if lung cancer treatment advances, it does not mean all health issues associated with smoking will be resolved.

Moreover, even if one intends to bet on future treatments, it does not mean those around them have joined the same bet. When discussing smoking as an expression of personal belief, care should be taken not to overlook its impact on others.

How Japanese readers should read "future medical news"

This topic cannot be dismissed as a rare anecdote only in the U.S. tech industry. In Japan, too, when encountering news about new medical technologies, it is necessary to distinguish between the level of expectation and what has actually been discovered.

For example, when seeing a headline like "AI will change cancer treatment," the following points should be checked.

• What has improved: the accuracy of detection, the speed of diagnosis, the exploration of drug candidates, or the treatment outcomes for patients?
• Is the basis a future prediction by companies or entrepreneurs, or is it research results?
• Are the results at the research stage, or have they been confirmed effective in actual clinical practice?
• To what extent are the conditions of the diseases and patients targeted limited?

This is not a task to undervalue the potential of AI. It is a task to accurately understand the content of progress.

Because there are promising outcomes, a stance is required not to add things that have not yet been demonstrated to those outcomes.

Expectations for the future and what can be done now for prevention can coexist

Believing in AI and protecting current health can coexist.

The National Cancer Center explains that even people who currently smoke can reduce their risk of cancer by quitting smoking. Also, the health benefits of quitting smoking can appear relatively quickly and over a long period.

What is needed for those who already smoke is not criticism for being optimistic about the future. It is the ability to connect to support from medical institutions when they want to quit. In Japan, if certain conditions are met, smoking cessation treatment under insurance coverage is also available.

The question in this anecdote is not whether to expect AI. It is whether to use an unrealized future as a guarantee for current health decisions.

While hoping for a future where medicine advances, also protect your health to welcome that future. There is no need to trade one for the other.

Sources and References

1. Gizmodo: Source of Sankar's statement, related Business Insider report, introduction of two posts on X, and the point of not concluding as a "trend."
   https://gizmodo.com/based-ai-people-are-supposedly-smoking-because-ai-will-cure-cancer-2000824991

2. U.S. National Cancer Institute (NCI): Explanation of AI's support in detection and diagnosis, tumor analysis, drug development support, and challenges for clinical introduction. Referenced as background material updated in 2020.
   https://www.cancer.gov/research/areas/diagnosis/artificial-intelligence-archiveNCI

3. National Cancer Center "Tobacco and Cancer": About smoking and various cancers, secondhand smoke and lung cancer, and risk reduction by quitting smoking.
   https://ganjoho.jp/public/pre_scr/cause_prevention/smoking/index.htmlganjoho.jp

4. WHO "Tobacco and nicotine" and "Effects of tobacco on health": Explanation of tobacco's health damages, secondhand smoke, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, etc.
   https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco
   https://www.who.int/europe/news-room/fact-sheets/item/effects-of-tobacco-on-healthwho.int

5. National Cancer Center "Health Effects of Quitting Smoking": Health benefits after quitting smoking and guidance on smoking cessation treatment.
   https://ganjoho.jp/public/pre_scr/cause_prevention/smoking/tobacco07.html