The Day Independent Curry Shops Disappear: Chain Stores' Pricing and Branding Strategies Drive Record Bankruptcies

1. The Reality of Bankruptcy: What 13 Cases Indicate

According to the data compiled by Teikoku Databank, there were 13 bankruptcies of curry restaurants with debts of over 10 million yen in the fiscal year 2024 (April 2024 to March 2025). This is a record high, with two more cases already occurring in the fiscal year 2025. Although the number of bankruptcies is less than other industries, such as the 35 cases in the ramen industry, it is a critical level for the smaller-scale curry industry.tdb.co.jp

2. The Fourfold Cost Burden: The Shock of "Curry Rice Price" at 365 Yen

・Rice: The price of Koshihikari per cup is 1.4 times higher than five years ago.
・Meat and Vegetables: 1.3 times higher due to yen depreciation and adverse weather.
・Spices: Cloves and cardamom from India and Sri Lanka have surged in international markets.
・Utilities: City gas unit price increased by 20%.


The combined "curry rice price" has been rising since fiscal year 2021, reaching an average of 365 yen in fiscal year 2024, the highest in the past decade*2. The cost ratio for individual stores has jumped from 30% to 42%, squeezing profits.tdb.co.jp

3. The Era of "CoCo Dominance": A Nationwide Network Built by One Company

CoCo Ichibanya operates 1,264 stores domestically and 216 overseas. By distributing roux manufactured at a central kitchen nationwide, they absorb cost fluctuations. With 538 franchise owners, they have expanded massively through diversified investment, establishing 172 stores in Tokyo and dominating urban centers. They also parallelly develop roadside models in front of local stations, solidifying their "chosen reason" with brand recognition and convenience.ichibanya.co.jp

4. The Second Wave: "Autumn Curry War" of Beef Bowl Chains

In the autumn of 2024, Sukiya, Matsuya, and Yoshinoya simultaneously launched curry products.

• Sukiya: Refreshed their signature curry, maintaining the price at 480 yen.

• Yoshinoya: Reintroduced "Black Curry" and tested Om-beef curry, which became a permanent offering.

• Matsuya: Made chicken curry a regular item and offered a 100-yen discount coupon in the morning.
  They expanded their customer base with low prices and rapid renewals, capturing market share from specialty stores.prtimes.jp
  
  
  
  

5. The Winning Pattern of Chains

1. Economies of Scale: Importing spices by container reduces procurement costs by an average of 15%.

2. Central Kitchen: Food loss rate is 3%. The average for individual stores is 12%.

3. Digital Promotion: App-exclusive coupons and subscriptions (fixed-price cutlet toppings) double visit frequency.

4. Brand Investment: Increase search volume through TV commercials and SNS strategies, achieving higher rankings on Google Maps.
   
   
   
   

6. Five Challenges Faced by Independent Stores

• Procurement: Prices are unstable due to purchasing spices on the spot market.

• Labor Costs: In urban areas with an hourly wage of 1,300 yen, operating with a single staff is difficult.

• Rent: Over 1 million yen per month for 10 tsubo near the station.

• Cash Flow: Cash flow is strained due to upfront costs and post-sales payments.

• Lack of PR Power: Unable to spend on advertising, relying on SNS for repeat customers.
  
  
  
  

7. Stores That Still Win—Three Successful Models

1. Region-Specific Model: A soup curry shop in Hokkaido reduces costs by 20% through direct agreements with local vegetable producers.

2. Craft Spice Workshop Model: Allows customers to experience the aroma with in-store roasting, achieving a 30% sales ratio in goods.

3. Dual-Purpose Model: Curry by Day / Bar by Night: Distributes customer spending to 850 yen during the day and 2,800 yen at night.
   
   
   
   

8. Consumer Awareness—"Experience" and "Oshi-katsu"

Toyo Keizai reported "Customer Exodus from Upscaled CoCo Ichibanya," but younger generations tend to post their "favorite toppings" on SNS. By capturing the demand for experiential value and customization, the price barrier can be broken.toyokeizai.net

9. Government and Financial Support Movements

• Small and Medium Enterprise Agency's "Restaurant Business Transformation Subsidy" with a maximum of 10 million yen

• Regional banks establish spice import agency loans

• 33 curry shops selected in the 8th call for business restructuring subsidies
  
  
  
  

10. Future Scenarios

Summary

Chains continue to expand their market with the weapons of price and speed, while individual stores face the dual challenges of cost and attracting customers. However, the "seeds of differentiation" such as experiential, craft-oriented, and community-based approaches certainly remain. The key to survival is whether they can adopt diversification strategies such as recovering inbound demand, e-commerce sales, and introducing ghost kitchens. By choosing stores based on values other than "cheapness," and with the government establishing a sustainable dining environment, we aim to connect diverse curry cultures to the future.

Reference Article List

1. Teikoku Databank "Bankruptcy Trends of 'Curry Shops' (Fiscal Year 2024)" June 5, 2025tdb.co.jp

2. Teikoku Databank "Curry Rice Price Index Survey - Fiscal Year 2024, March 2025" May 9, 2025tdb.co.jp

3. PR TIMES "Autumn 2024 Curry War Erupts at Gyudon Chains" October 6, 2024prtimes.jp

4. Ichibanya Co., Ltd. IR Page "Number of Domestic Group Stores" End of February 2025ichibanya.co.jp

5. Toyo Keizai Online "Coco Ichibanya's 'Luxury Leading to Customer Loss' and the Transformation of Curry Shops" March 2025toyokeizai.net