Despite the decrease in the unemployment rate, jobs are not increasing - The true nature of the "quiet slowdown" in U.S. employment

The U.S. employment statistics indicated a "quiet slowdown" rather than a dramatic collapse. The non-farm payrolls (NFP) for December 2025 increased by 50,000 compared to the previous month. The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.4%. At first glance, the numbers might seem "not bad," but the annual view paints a different picture. The total employment increase for 2025 was 584,000, a clear deceleration compared to the 2 million in the previous year (2024).

What kind of pain does this "slowdown" inflict on the public, and what decisions does it force upon businesses, the market, and the Federal Reserve (FRB)? We will decipher this using the breakdown of statistics and the points of discussion spread on social media.

1) First, let's organize the facts: +50,000 in December, but "weaker than the previous year"

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the employment increase in December was +50,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. The sectors that saw growth were mainly

• Food and Beverage (+27,000)

• Healthcare (+21,000, with hospitals +16,000)

• Social Assistance (+17,000)
  , while retail decreased by 25,000.

Another often overlooked aspect is the "revision of past data." October was revised downward from -105,000 to -173,000, and November was revised downward from +64,000 to +56,000. This means the actual situation was weaker by 76,000 over the past two months.

Furthermore, in 2025, there were special circumstances in the statistics, such as the inability to collect household survey data in October due to the federal government shutdown (although the December household survey was conducted as usual).

2) "Not hiring, but not firing either" — The atmosphere of "low hiring, low firing"

A prominent keyword surrounding this employment report is the perception that "employment is not growing, but it is not collapsing either." U.S. media have noted that while employment growth is weak, the unemployment rate is not surging, leading to a narrative of "treading water" rather than entering a recession.

However, prolonged stagnation can lead to a "society where job hunting is difficult." In a phase where new hiring is dwindling, those currently employed are more likely to be protected, but the gates to job changes and reemployment become narrower, gradually affecting households.

3) The "gradual pain" affecting households: Increase in long-term unemployment and "involuntary part-time"

According to the BLS household survey, the number of long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more) stood at 1.9 million as of December, an increase of 397,000 from the previous year. The proportion of long-term unemployed among all unemployed reached 26%.
Additionally, the number of people working part-time for economic reasons (those who want to work full-time but cannot) was 5.3 million, an increase of 980,000 from the previous year.

These two areas are where the "pain of economic downturn" tends to appear first. Even before companies resort to mass layoffs, hiring freezes, shift reductions, and shrinking full-time positions occur. Even if the unemployment rate does not show significant movement statistically, daily life is affected first.

4) Why has it slowed down: Policy uncertainty, immigration, AI investment, and the public sector

The slowdown is attributed to multiple factors rather than a single cause.

• Policy uncertainty, such as tariffs: When the future of economic policy is unclear, companies become cautious about expanding their workforce, which is a fixed cost.

• "Flatline" discussed on social media: Labor economist Aaron Sojourner described in a social media post that "employment growth has almost flatlined," and mentioned the possibility that the slowdown intensified after tariff announcements (based on reports).

• Immigration restrictions and changes in labor supply: When the labor supply is constrained, companies may hold back on hiring due to "wage increase risks," while the unemployment rate is less likely to surge—this "twist" can occur.

• AI investment and the tug-of-war with labor costs: In scenarios where companies allocate funds to AI and automation investments, equipment and software investments are prioritized over increasing staff, leading to a slowdown in hiring momentum.

• Reduction in federal government employment: According to BLS statistics, federal government employment decreased by 277,000 (9.2%) from its peak in January. The contraction in the public sector can easily ripple through local economies.

In short, rather than the economy suddenly dying, it was a year where the "reasons not to increase employment" accumulated more than the "reasons to increase employment."

5) Are wages rather strong? — The FRB's dilemma with "weak employment × strong wages"

The average hourly wage in December increased by 0.3% from the previous month and by 3.8% from the same month last year, reaching $37.02.

If employment is slowing, wages might seem to settle, but if wages remain sticky, there are concerns about inflation reigniting. In fact, there are reports suggesting that the market is inclined to believe that rate cuts will not be rushed (or cannot be rushed).

The complexity of this situation lies in the fact that the FRB is not looking for an "employment collapse" but rather a "cooling of overheating." Weak employment with firm wages—this combination clouds the "correct" timing for rate cuts.

Reactions on social media: The focus shifts from "recession" to "prolonged stagnation"

Regarding these numbers, three main types of reactions were prominent on social media (note: the following summarizes posts and comments introduced in reports and points of discussion that tend to spread around them. It is not a comprehensive survey).

A) The "employment has 'flatlined'" group

Sojourner's expression "employment growth has almost flatlined," mentioned in his post, was easily quoted and spread as a short and strong phrase.
This group's interest is more on whether "a society where new jobs do not increase continues" rather than whether "the unemployment rate has risen."

B) The "no intention to hire = can't change jobs" group (perceived economy)

People who focus more on job postings and the reluctance to hire than on the statistical "unemployment rate."
Points such as "those currently employed are protected, but a cooling job market reduces opportunities for wage increases" and "it's tough for young people, new graduates, and those re-entering the workforce" tend to gain traction.

C) The "as long as wages rise, it's okay" group (inflation and living defense)

Focusing on the growth in average hourly wages (year-on-year +3.8%), voices suggest that "if wages can outpace inflation, it's different from a recession."
However, there are also counterarguments that "if wages remain sticky, rate cuts will be delayed, making mortgages and borrowing tough."

Focus from here: Will 2026 "collapse" or "fly low"?

The points of attention moving forward are simple.

1. Will long-term unemployment and "involuntary part-time" increase further (deterioration in employment quality)

2. Will the weakness in economically sensitive sectors like retail and manufacturing spread (starting point of ripple effects)

3. Will wages continue to be sticky (tug-of-war between inflation and monetary policy)

4. Revisions to past statistics (it might have been weaker than it appeared, which can occur later)

The longer the state of being "weak but not collapsing" continues, the more household dissatisfaction shifts from "unemployment" to "stagnation." In years where employment drama is less likely to occur, politics and social media tend to ignite more easily—perhaps 2025's employment indicated the entrance to that.