"Children are Wanted, but Cannot be Born" — The UN Report Reflects the "Real Low Birthrate Crisis" and Japan Today

1. Introduction: The Misunderstanding of "Lack of Will" in Declining Birth Rates

As birth rates drop to historic lows worldwide, governments and media lament that "young people no longer want children." However, the latest UNFPA report, "The Real Fertility Crisis" (released on June 10, 2025), challenges this conventional wisdom. It states that the issue is not about "not wanting" but rather "not being able to."globalnews.caunfpa.org

2. Overview of the UN Report: Research Methods and Key Indicators

UNFPA collaborated with YouGov to survey over 15,000 people across 14 countries, including the United States, Mexico, Brazil, Germany, and South Korea, accounting for more than one-third of the global population. **49%** reported not reaching their ideal number of children due to economic reasons, while **39%** cited "financial constraints" as a barrier. Unemployment, low wages, and rising housing costs accounted for around 20%, with over 20% also mentioning "future uncertainties" such as climate change and conflicts.theguardian.comaljazeera.com

3. Reasons for "Inability" ①: Ongoing High Costs and Employment Insecurity

The report identifies "child-rearing costs" as the biggest bottleneck. Some countries estimate that raising a child requires hundreds of thousands of dollars, including not only childcare fees but also tuition, housing, medical care, and educational opportunities. OECD household disposable income data shows that wage growth rates in many developed countries are below inflation, hitting younger generations the hardest. This persistent high cost of "overall living expenses" is inducing a suppression of birth rates.globalnews.ca

4. Reasons for "Inability" ②: Gender Inequality and Care Burden

The survey found that **11%** cited "partners not sufficiently sharing housework and childcare" as a barrier. The percentage of women responding this way was about twice that of men. Across various countries' social media, there is a growing outcry that "balancing career and childcare has its limits as a personal effort." UNFPA advocates for mandatory male participation in childcare and paid parental leave, warning that reforming employment practices should take precedence over short-term "birth bonuses."unfpa.org

5. Reasons for "Inability" ③: Future Anxieties and "Climate Child Fear"

The report also highlights that **22%** hesitate to have children due to concerns about "climate change, war, and pandemics." Recently, the hashtag "#NoFutureNoKids" has spread on social media, and comments like "we can't pass the burden onto our children" surge with each news of wildfires and floods. This "environmental childbirth avoidance" is also becoming prevalent in Japan.globalnews.ca

6. Japan Now: The Crisis Indicated by the Historic "Below 700,000 Births"

Although Japan was not included in the survey, the report's findings directly apply to Japan's current situation. According to preliminary figures from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, the number of births in 2024 is 686,061, and the total fertility rate is 1.15. Both are record lows. This level, which the government predicted for the late 2030s, has been reached more than 15 years earlier, highlighting the acceleration of population decline.nippon.comenglish.kyodonews.net

6-1 The "Quadruple Distress" of Economic Anxiety

1. Stagnation of Real Wages

2. Rising Housing Costs: The price of condominiums in city centers has risen by 25% compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic.

3. Burden of Childcare and Education Costs: Estimates suggest that including extracurricular activities, cram schools, and university fees, the cost per child exceeds 30 million yen.

4. Preemptive Retirement Risks: Many express that "it's impossible to support the parental generation, prepare for one's own retirement, and raise children simultaneously."

6-2 The "Twist" of Social Systems

Although the "free childcare" policy expanded in the 2010s is appreciated, the average weekly difference in housework and childcare time between genders is 13.1 hours (Cabinet Office survey 2024), which continues to suppress the desire to have children.

7. Voices on Social Media: Hashtags Visualizing "I Want to Have Kids, But..."

*The main post is a translation and summary by the author of a public post on X (formerly Twitter). Screenshots are quoted within the copyright scope according to the laws of each country and platform regulations.x.com

8. Expert Opinions—"Choices Over Rewards"

• Masahiro Yamada (Professor Emeritus, Chuo University, Family Sociology)

  "Cash benefits alone cannot break the 'wall of not having children.' Unless we comprehensively redesign housing, work styles, and gender equality, Japan's birth rate will not recover."

• Natalia Kanem (Executive Director, UNFPA)

  "Investing boldly in the care economy to create a society where people can have children 'as many as they want, when they want' is the true population policy."unfpa.org

9. Future Prescriptions—Four Perspectives Japan Should Learn

1. Long-term Housing Policy: Permanent income-linked rent subsidies

2. 100% Male Parental Leave Target: Guarantee an income replacement rate of 80% or more

3. Balancing "Quantity" and "Quality" in Childcare: Significant increase in childcare workers' salaries

4. Green Reproductive Policy: Support for parenting addressing climate anxiety (e.g., integration of renewable energy subsidies and childcare benefits)

10. Conclusion—A "Choice-Enabled Society" Can Halt Population Decline

There is no magic bullet to boost birth rates. However, an environment where people can freely decide on childbirth or not enhances not only individual happiness but also societal sustainability. The question posed by the report is simple—Are we truly choosing politics that provide people with "options"?