America's Submarine Cable Policy: The Deep-Sea Frontline of the Digital Cold War - The Fate of the US FCC vs. Chinese Tech

1. Introduction: A New "Geopolitics" Beginning in the Deep Sea

On July 17 (Eastern Time), tech media outlets simultaneously displayed "Breaking" banners. The FCC (Federal Communications Commission) announced a new rule proposal prohibiting the connection of undersea communication cables containing technology or equipment from Chinese companies to the U.S.EngadgetReuters

"Our fiber optic network can no longer be protected without a 'physical firewall'." This declaration was made on X (formerly Twitter) by FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr ahead of the announcement.X (formerly Twitter)

2. Undersea Cables and National Security

The over 1.6 million km of undersea cables that weave across the world are said to handle about 99% of international data communications. Among them, the Pacific route connecting the U.S. and Asia is a "digital artery" that influences AI cloud and financial transaction latency. In October 2024, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to the Biden administration requesting a "re-examination of undersea network vulnerabilities," which remains fresh in memory.Reuters

The background includes a series of cable-cutting incidents in the Baltic Sea and around Taiwan and the Matsu Islands, as well as the state-sponsored cyberattack "Salt Typhoon" that shook U.S. telecommunications operators in 2024.Financial TimesReuters

3. Key Points of the Rule Proposal

The new rule proposal has two core points.

• Connection Prohibition: Companies listed on the "Covered List," such as Huawei Marine (now HMN Tech), are not allowed to land undersea cables in the U.S. if they manufacture, lay, or maintain them.

• Reauthorization of Existing Equipment: Even existing routes in operation must undergo additional national security reviews if they contain designated materials.
  This measure will require redesigns of next-generation ultra-high-capacity (>400 Tbps) cable plans led by U.S. platforms like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon.Tom's HardwareThe Record from Recorded Future

4. Industry Estimates: Who Will Bear the Cost?

According to estimates by international cable construction consultant AquaComms, the total project cost is expected to increase by an average of 3-5% due to alternative procurement of designated materials.The shortage of laying ships is also exacerbating the situation, potentially causing construction delays of up to 18 months.Meanwhile, the U.S. defense industry emphasizes that "risks should be minimized even at a cost." The value of "security over economy" highlighted by Salt Typhoon is pushing aside industrial logic.
ReutersThe Times of India

5. China's Reaction and International Ripple Effects

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately issued a statement urging the U.S. to stop "economic terrorism" and protect the fairness and openness of international communications. The Hong Kong newspaper SCMP reported that the U.S. is also increasing pressure on Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam regarding their undersea plans.South China Morning Post

The UK Financial Times described it as a "decisive step in the digital Cold War," noting that French Orange and Japan's NTT are also closely watching the developments.Financial Times

6. The Temperature Difference on Social Media: Visualizing Public Opinion

Immediately after the announcement, the hashtag #UnderseaCableBan trended in the U.S. on X.

• "Finally, we can protect the backbone of the nation" (Researcher at a conservative think tank)

• "A foolish move to introduce borders into a global network" (IT engineer)

• "If laying costs rise, it will ultimately reflect in user fees" (Former executive of a telecommunications carrier)
  , showing that opinions are almost evenly divided. The official Techmeme account commented, "Amid rapidly growing AI demand, new uncertainties in the race to secure bandwidth."X (formerly Twitter)HotHardware

7. Expert Interviews

■ Professor Jennifer Haviland (Georgetown University, Strategic Communications Research)

"Undersea cables are national assets comparable to 'air superiority.' As long as adversarial countries exist in the supply chain, strategic risks will not disappear."

■ Chris Schoen, CEO (Pacific Light Data)

"Operational and monitoring systems are more important than the technology itself. A complete boycott could undermine supply chain diversity and ironically create vulnerabilities."

8. Future Scenarios

1. Approval in August Vote → Implementation in 2026

   • U.S. companies switch to European, Japanese, and Korean manufacturers, revising the design of new trans-Pacific routes.

2. WTO Complaint and Retaliatory Tariffs

   • China could file a complaint as a "non-tariff barrier" and impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S.-made cloud equipment.

3. Expansion of Third-Country Bifurcation Model

   • A "detangling" design that does not directly connect the U.S. mainland and Chinese mainland, via Singapore or Indonesia, becomes mainstream.

9. Conclusion: The "Invisible Undersea Line" Reflects the World Order

Undersea cables, though not depicted on the political maps of the surface, represent another "borderline" projecting the hegemonic struggles of the 21st century. The FCC's rule proposal symbolizes a modern era where national intentions and anxieties intertwine with each fiber optic strand. As technology evolves globally, the battle for control over infrastructure will continue deeply and quietly.