An "unexpected" event originating from the United States has shaken the gold market. The trigger was a letter issued by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on July 31. This was interpreted as a reclassification of the most widely circulated gold bars, 1kg and 100 ounces, into tariff-applicable categories, engulfing the market in shock over "tariffs on gold." It was widely perceived that the affected items included cast bars from Switzerland, the world's refining hub, leading to a rapid spread of the view that a "countervailing" tariff of up to 39% could be imposed on exports to the U.S. InvestopediaBarron's

The price reaction was immediate. On August 8, New York gold futures reached an all-time high of $3,534, later trimming gains to around $3,454. The spread with spot (London) temporarily widened, leading to a "premium" driven by futures. Market participants analyzed that "tariff costs and bottlenecks in storage and delivery have been internalized in futures." Reuters

However, on the same day, the White House moved to "extinguish the fire." They indicated a policy to clarify the "misinformation" surrounding the "gold bar tariff" through an executive order, mentioning the possibility of declaring the tariffs inapplicable. Although the market trimmed some of its gains, caution remained. The uncertainty of the "tariff era," where policies flip-flop, is precisely what is increasing gold's volatility. The Wall Street JournalYahoo! Finance

The practical damage has already become apparent. The Swiss precious metals industry association (ASFCMP) stated that "at 39%, shipments to the U.S. will effectively stop." Major refiners have also temporarily suspended air transport to the U.S. Switzerland is the center of global gold refining, and the U.S. is a significant market. If tariffs are actually applied, the logistics of gold to the U.S. will need a fundamental redesign.

What amplified the confusion this time was the specificity of "which bars are affected." The CBP letter mentioned 1kg and 100-ounce "cast" bars, which precisely match the delivery standards of COMEX. In other words, the physical flow behind the futures market was directly impacted. Banks and trading companies are forced to recalculate arbitrage, and hedging costs need to be reviewed. UBS believes that "if the tariffs remain, the basis between New York and London will widen, and detours to other refining hubs will progress." ReutersThe Guardian

The "winners" and "losers" are also beginning to emerge. The winning side includes companies with room to utilize domestic recycling and refining in the U.S., as well as gold mining stocks. On the day of the report, major mining stocks reacted with slight gains. On the other hand, domestic jewelry and industrial users in the U.S. are likely to be caught between securing inventory and passing on prices. In the short term, premiums may be added, and in the long term, supply chain reorganization will weigh on costs. Barron's

This incident leaves three implications.
**First, the "headline risk" of policy.** A single administrative document or statement can simultaneously move both the real demand and financial markets significantly. Especially when the premise of "tariff exemption" is overturned, the impact spreads from financial transactions (futures, ETFs) to warehouses, cargo, and insurance. Reuters

**Second, the "geographical fragmentation" of prices.** If tariffs remain, the price gap between COMEX (New York) and London is likely to structurally widen. The U.S. will have "expensive gold," while Europe and Asia will have "cheap gold," creating a two-tier market with a gap that cannot be filled by arbitrage. This could weaken the hedging function of futures and perpetuate volatility. TradingView

**Third, the transformation of the "inverse correlation between politics and gold."** Even in situations where it is bought as a safe asset, the unpredictability of policy causes prices to fluctuate wildly. The recent surge is a typical example where, in addition to inflation and economic slowdown concerns, the uncertainty of trade policy added an "extra premium." Against the backdrop of a more than 30% rise since the beginning of the year, a single headline updated the all-time high. Barron's

Future Scenarios

• Tariff "Withdrawal and Clarification" Scenario: The White House explicitly states the tariffs are not applicable. Market spreads narrow, and logistics gradually normalize. However, the "policy review risk" remains, and prices may stabilize at high levels. The Wall Street Journal

• Tariff "Maintenance and Application" Scenario: U.S. flows are rerouted to within Europe or the Middle East, with premiums settling in the U.S. The structure of physical shortages leading to high futures continues due to inventory imbalances. Swiss exports to the U.S. are likely to plummet. Reuters

Important Dates (All U.S. Eastern Time)

• April 5: Starting point interpreted as the retroactive effect of tariffs due to reclassification (later disputed). Investopedia

• July 31: CBP letter published. Investopedia

• August 8: Futures hit an all-time high of $3,534. The White House suggests "clarification by executive order." ReutersThe Wall Street Journal

In conclusion, this "tariff shock" demonstrated how sensitive the market is to every move of the administration. Regardless of which way the policy ultimately turns, the core of risk management lies in immediate response to headlines and management of inter-geographical spreads. Gold is the "ultimate safe asset," but there is no safe zone against the uncertainty of logistics and systems—that is the lesson of 2025. 

Summary of Reactions on Social Media

• Market Accounts (X): "The tariff application on 1kg and 100oz hits COMEX deliveries directly. Even safe assets are not immune to the chaos of the 'tariff era'"—the breaking news post spread instantly. X (formerly Twitter)

• Commodity Commentary (X): "As soon as the White House mentioned 'clarification of misinformation,' futures struggled with profit-taking. A textbook example of headline risk." X (formerly Twitter)

• Reddit (r/Gold, r/news): "If tariffs really continue, the U.S. will keep buying 'expensive gold,'" "Arbitrage won't work, and securing physical gold will become difficult," were top practical comments. Reddit+1

• Industry Association (Statement): "At 39%, exports will stop. Clarification on the handling of classification codes is essential"—official view of the Swiss precious metals industry. ASFCMP

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