The United States has decided to impose a 93.5% tariff on Chinese battery materials. What impact will this have on the industry?

1. Introduction

Graphite, often referred to as the "oil of the EV era," is primarily supplied by China. The U.S. has imposed an extraordinary tariff of 160% on it. On July 18, the U.S. Department of Commerce made a preliminary decision to impose a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on Anode Active Material (AAM), with a final decision expected by the end of the year.NDTV ProfitThis article thoroughly examines the policy background, its impact on industry, market, and environment, and the mixed reactions on social media.

2. What is Graphite? — The "Negative Electrode" of EV Batteries

Currently, graphite is used in about 95% of the negative electrodes in lithium-ion batteries. The IEA predicts that it will remain the dominant material until the early 2030s, prioritizing the diversification of the supply chain as a "top priority."NDTV Profit

3. The Path to a 93.5% Tariff

• December 2024 — The U.S. AAM Producers Association filed a complaint with the Department of Commerce and ITC.

• May 2025 — A countervailing investigation led to a preliminary decision on a 6.55% countervailing duty.

• July 18, 2025 — A 93.5% anti-dumping duty was preliminarily applied, with a final decision expected on December 5.Energy News

4. Cost Estimation: An Additional $200–450 per EV

According to CRU Group's estimates, the comprehensive 160% tariff would increase costs by $7 per kWh of battery cells. For an average 60kWh passenger EV, this would add about $420, impacting the cost of a Tesla Model 3 for 1–2 quarters.NDTV Profit

5. Industry Reactions

• Tesla, Panasonic: "There are still no suppliers in the U.S. that meet quality standards."

• Western Graphite Companies: Stocks surged, with Australia's Syrah Resources up 22% and Canada's Nouveau Monde up 26%.Financial Times

• Renewable Energy Developers: Companies like Fluence and Enphase saw declines, with concerns over increased storage costs affecting project returns.NDTV Profit

6. The "Temperature Gap" on Social Media

6‑1. X (formerly Twitter)

• @business (Bloomberg official) "Battery maker stocks surge"X (formerly Twitter)

• @globaltimesnews (Global Times) "Economic bullying. China will take necessary measures."X (formerly Twitter)

• U.S. EV Fan: "Cars are getting more expensive again. IRA tax credits are blown away!"

• U.S. Labor Union Account: "Finally addressing China's dumping. A tailwind for domestic jobs."
  (Likes and reposts reached about 10,000 the day after the announcement)

6‑2. LinkedIn

Energy investor Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes posted that it was "good news for domestic synthetic graphite companies," receiving supportive comments from industry stakeholders.LinkedIn

6‑3. Weibo

In China, a critical narrative spread that "the U.S. strengthened protectionism first with EV subsidies." The Chinese Ministry of Commerce strongly opposed, stating it violated WTO rules in an official statement.

7. Environmental and Sustainability Perspectives

In the short term, there are concerns about a slowdown in EV adoption due to rising prices. However, some see it as an opportunity to avoid China's environmentally impactful smelting processes and switch to cleaner sources from North America and Australia. Norwegian research firm Rystad Energy analyzes a potential 18% reduction in lifecycle CO₂ emissions.Financial Times

8. Political and Geopolitical Implications

The Biden administration has already introduced a 100% tariff on completed EVs in 2024. The current material tariff is seen as reinforcing the "missing link." Meanwhile, China is strengthening its export approval system for rare earths and graphite, with expectations that the "retaliatory battle" will inevitably prolong.The Times of India

9. Future Scenarios

1. Permanent Tariff Scenario

   • New factories in North America (Westwater, Novonix, etc.) begin mass production around 2030, leading to a substantial supply chain shift.

2. Compromise Scenario

   • The final tariff rate is reduced, and U.S. OEMs partially dual-source outside of China.

3. Escalation of Counter Tariffs and Resource Cards

   • China imposes additional regulations on rare earths and precursors, posing a risk of EV prices and adoption numbers falling short of expectations.

10. Conclusion

The figure of 93.5% highlights the fragility of the supply network for foundational materials supporting the EV shift. With about five months remaining until the final decision, will the U.S. and China come to the negotiating table, or choose the path of escalation? The battle over the "black powder" of anode materials is a significant watershed in the global race for decarbonization.