"Is 'Peace on the Horizon' a Sign of Hope or Surrender? The Fate of the Ukraine War Held by Donbas and Nuclear Power Plants"

The Bombshell Statement: "The End of the War is 'Very Close'"

"An agreement to end the Ukraine war is 'really close.' We are now in the last 10 meters,"

This statement was made at a security forum held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California, USA. The speaker was Keith Kellogg, the U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine under President Donald Trump. He confidently stated that an agreement to end this conflict, which has become one of Europe's largest wars since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, is "almost finalized."InfoMoney

According to Kellogg, a former lieutenant general who fought in Vietnam and Iraq, it is estimated that approximately 2 million people from both sides have been killed or injured in the fighting so far, and he emphasized the urgent need to stop this "scale of tragedy" as soon as possible.Reuters

However, the obstacles lying in those "last 10 meters" are not small.

Focus of Negotiations: Donbas and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

The two remaining issues revealed by Kellogg are

1. The handling of the eastern Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk)

2. The future of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe

These are the two issues.InfoMoney

Since 2014, Donbas has been a region where clashes between pro-Russian armed groups and the Ukrainian military have continued, and it is currently largely occupied by Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine retains control over at least 5,000 square kilometers of territory, and most of the international community still recognizes Donbas as Ukrainian territory.InfoMoney

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been under Russian control since the early stages of the war, but the supply of electricity and cooling remains unstable, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly warned of the "risk of a major accident" at the site.Newsweek

Kellogg emphasized that "if these two issues are resolved, the rest will fall into place," highlighting that compromise on territorial issues and nuclear plant security is key to the agreement.Reuters

Russia's Reaction: "Fundamental Revisions Needed"

However, Moscow's view contrasts with the optimism from the U.S. side. Yuri Ushakov, a diplomatic advisor to President Putin, reportedly stated that "the United States must make 'fundamental changes to the document'" after a four-hour meeting at the Kremlin with Special Envoy Vitkov and Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law).InfoMoney

While Ushakov did not disclose specific details, it is believed that Russia is dissatisfied with at least the following points:

• Whether to recognize the entire Donbas under Russian governance

• Whether to keep the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant under Russian control or transfer it to international management

• What restrictions to impose on the size of the Ukrainian military and its relationship with NATO

These points coincide with the leaked U.S.-Russia-led "28-point peace plan," which included accepting Russian control over Crimea and Donbas, reducing the Ukrainian military, and non-membership in NATO. European Union (EU) leaders have openly criticized this initial plan, stating that it contains "unacceptable provisions," and have called for revisions to the entire U.S. proposal.The Guardian

Ukraine's Stance: "No Peace by Surrendering Donbas"

Ukrainian President Zelensky has consistently rejected concessions over Donbas. He warns that handing over the remaining territory of Donetsk to Russia without a national referendum would be illegal and would provide a foothold for future Russian invasions.InfoMoney

Regarding recent discussions with the U.S. side, Zelensky reflected on X (formerly Twitter) and in interviews, stating they were "constructive but never easy."Reuters

• Three days of working discussions near Florida, USA

• Long phone discussions with Vitkov and Kushner

• Subsequent consecutive meetings with European leaders in London and Brussels

Ukraine is actively seeking revisions to the U.S. proposal and security guarantees from various countries. Zelensky stated, "The U.S., Russia, and Ukraine each have different visions, and there is no consensus on Donbas," and declared, "There is no agreement on Donbas yet."Reuters

At the same time, Ukraine is seeking to establish long-term security agreements with major European countries such as the UK, France, and Germany, separately from the U.S.Bloomberg

Trump Administration's Intentions: "Peace President" and Domestic Politics

President Trump does not hide his desire to make this peace mediation a significant diplomatic legacy. He has repeatedly stated, "I want to be remembered as the president who brought peace," and has made ending the Ukraine war one of the administration's top priorities.InfoMoney

On the other hand, Trump has openly expressed dissatisfaction with President Zelensky, stating, "He hasn't read the proposal properly" and "He's not ready to agree yet."euronews

This strong pressure is seen as looking ahead to U.S. domestic politics beyond 2026, particularly the next elections and relations with Congress. It is also true that among some voters tired of the costs of supporting a prolonged war, there is a growing sentiment of "just end the war, in any form."

However, if a compromise over territory is perceived as "Ukraine's surrender," it could provoke strong opposition both in Europe and domestically.

Expectations and Distrust on Social Media: Four Types of Reactions

As soon as Kellogg's statement that "peace is really close" was reported, various reactions flooded social media. Here, we categorize the main patterns into four types.

1. Voices of Relief: "It Might Finally End"

On platforms like X and Facebook, many exhausted citizens express sentiments like, "If the war that has lasted nearly three years is ending, we should accept it even if it's not a perfect agreement." Among users residing in Ukraine who have been posting daily videos of air raid warnings, some post, "I hope this is really the last winter."

Considering the impact of the war on the global economy and inflation, posts welcoming an early end from an economic perspective, such as "Life will be easier if energy prices stabilize," are also prominent.

2. Critical Voices: "Peace by Surrendering Territory is Fake"

Conversely, under hashtags like #NoLandForPeace and #DonbasIsUkraine, there is a widespread strong criticism that "peace achieved by surrendering occupied territories will only invite the next invasion."

Particularly among Ukrainian and Eastern European users, there are posts recalling the historically repeated "appeasement policies in exchange for territory," warning, "This is the 21st-century Munich Agreement," which are being shared widely.

3. "De Facto Victory Declaration" by Pro-Russian Accounts

In Russian-speaking social media, there are voices welcoming the discussions on Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as moves closer to "international recognition of the new reality." Propaganda-like posts claiming "The West has finally recognized reality" and criticizing the Ukrainian side as "stubborn" are spreading.

Simultaneously, nationalist voices demanding the Kremlin maintain a hardline stance, stating "Russia should not make further concessions," are also prominent.

4. Calm Analysis by Peace Movements and Experts

Another trend is threads by international NGOs and security experts. They point out, "It may be true that we are close to ending the war, but what matters is what kind of monitoring mechanism and security framework will be incorporated."

• Proposals to place the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant under international control

• Proposals to station long-term UN and OSCE monitoring missions in Donbas

• Multilateral security guarantees for Ukraine

Threads discussing specific institutional designs are being shared, with many calls to "look at the text, not emotions."

European Concerns: "Imposed Peace" is Unacceptable

EU leaders are sensitive to parts of the U.S.-led peace proposal that appear "pro-Russian." Polish Prime Minister Tusk stated that the 28-point proposal contains "unacceptable provisions" and made it clear that he would not support a proposal based on forced territorial concessions.Newsweek

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also warned that "a peace that legitimizes territorial changes by force undermines future security." The EU has a situation where it is difficult to establish post-war support packages and reconstruction plans unless they are based on a framework that protects Ukraine's sovereignty and security.Al Jazeera

These European concerns are also spreading on social media with hashtags like "#StandWithUkraine" and "#NoMunich2.0