Hackers vs. Quantum Computers — Seek the Last Bastion of Cryptography! Prepare for the Quantum Computer Era!

1. Introduction: The Time Limit Imposed by Quantum Computers

In June 2022, the Brazilian IT media outlet Adrenaline published an article warning that "once quantum computers are completed, existing encryption will be broken as easily as tearing a paper envelope with bare hands."adrenaline.com.br

In fact, a Chinese research group has already succeeded in theoretically breaking RSA encryption on a small scale, and the cryptographic community estimates the "Y2Q (Quantum Year)" to be in the early 2030s.adrenaline.com.brpt.wikipedia.org

2. Why Is Encryption So "Hard to Break"?

RSA and ECC rely on the computational hardness of "factoring large prime numbers" and "discrete logarithms on elliptic curves." While traditional computers would take billions of years to factorize, quantum computers can find solutions at once through superposition and parallel search. Adrenaline compared this difference to "an envelope that can't be opened even if stolen" versus "a future where the envelope itself is torn apart."adrenaline.com.br

3. The New Barrier of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)

3-1 NIST's 7 Candidates

Since 2016, NIST has been conducting a four-round contest, planning to finalize in 2024.

• ML-KEM (formerly known as Kyber)

• Dilithium

• Falcon

• SPHINCS+
  are prioritized among four types, with BIKE/HQC/FrodoKEM selected as backups. Standardization is expected to be completed by 2028.adrenaline.com.brpt.wikipedia.org

3-2 Characteristics of the Algorithms

The selected methods are based on mathematical structures that are difficult to break even with Shor/Grover algorithms, such as lattice problems and hash-based signatures. While key sizes and computational loads increase, they are evaluated for their ease of hardware implementation and ability to coexist in a hybrid manner with existing TLS.

4. Moving to the Implementation Phase: Windows 11 and Industry Trends

Microsoft announced that in May 2025, they will trial ML-KEM and ML-DSA in Windows 11 Canary Build 27852. SymCrypt and OpenSSL 3 will also support this, with plans to expand to the Linux ecosystem.adrenaline.com.br

On LinkedIn, there are voices expressing excitement about "eliminating the biggest security weakness" and anticipation for "expansion to Linux," while cautious opinions about "concerns over performance degradation" are also observed.pt.linkedin.com

Apple will also trial the PQ3 protocol in iMessage by the end of 2024. NordVPN and Cloudflare offer hybrid handshakes with TLS 1.3, and cloud providers and financial institutions are expected to follow suit.

5. Deciphering Reactions on Social Media

In LinkedIn posts and Tugatech article comments, performance degradation and compatibility issues were central topics of discussion.tugatech.com.ptpt.linkedin.com

6. Technical Hurdles

1. Scalability: The increase in key and signature sizes puts pressure on communication and storage, which is critical for IoT and smart card fields.adrenaline.com.br

2. Computational Load: Lattice operations emphasize multiplication, making it difficult for low-power CPUs and microcontrollers.

3. Compatibility: How to integrate with existing infrastructures like CA certificate chains, VPNs, and blockchains. Hybrid TLS and dual signatures are temporary solutions.

7. How Should Japanese Companies Act?

• Auditable Inventory Management: Inventory long-term confidential documents and formulate a rotation plan before 2030.

• Proof of Hybrid Certificates: Conduct preliminary evaluations of dual encryption with PQC and conventional methods in WebPKI, VPN, and S/MIME.

• Supply Chain Measures: Confirm the presence of a PQC roadmap with component vendors and add it to adoption requirements.

• Human Resource Development: Collaborate with universities for reskilling in quantum information theory and cryptographic engineering.

8. Conclusion

The evolution of quantum computing technology has shifted from being "a distant future" to "a stage where preparations must begin." The NIST standardization and implementations by Microsoft and Apple symbolize this change. To avoid regrets in ten years, it is necessary to redesign entire systems with the premise that **"encryption changes."**