Is the Venezuelan Upheaval a "21st Century Doctrine": The Nexus of Military, Oil, and International Order

The day after the "Blitzkrieg," what the world saw was not "victory" but a "lack of blueprint."

The U.S. detained Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela—. This news highlighted not just the end of a regime but the **"next form" of international order**. The Guardian illustrated the irony of the nightmare of the Chavismo, which had long used "U.S. invasion" as propaganda, becoming a reality, while pointing out the eeriness of power being exercised without UN authorization or congressional approval. The Guardian

POLITICO's analysis, which compiles expert predictions and insights, converges on the same question. In other words—this is not just an incident for Venezuela. It signifies ripples spreading across Latin America, the energy market, and the very "rules-based order" itself. cronicaromaneasca.ro

What happened: The focus is more on "post-detention governance" than on "detention"

The U.S. side made statements indicating involvement in Venezuela until the transition period, and several analyses suggest the possibility of U.S. companies entering oil development and restoration. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) raised concerns that the statements appear more focused on "oil" than on an "election or democratization roadmap," identifying the ambiguity of the exit as the greatest uncertainty. Council on Foreign Relations

Meanwhile, the legitimacy of the operation has become a contentious issue in the international community, with reports that the Pope called for respect for Venezuela's sovereignty and the rule of law. Reuters

Prediction 1: "Reactivation of the Monroe Doctrine"—A message to China, Russia, and Iran

Summaries from abroad, based on POLITICO, emphasize that this move can be interpreted as a warning to extraterritorial powers (China and Russia). cronicaromaneasca.ro

In fact, an analysis by Global Affairs (Chicago Council) argues that the intervention in Venezuela provides Beijing with an opportunity to portray itself as a "more responsible major power" than the U.S., and it could become a point of criticism against the U.S. in UN diplomacy. Chicago Council on Global Affairs
The Russian side has also intensified its opposition, with Medvedev and others criticizing it as "illegal and destabilizing," according to Reuters. Reuters

What matters here is not **"who scored" but "who learns."** If this is perceived as a successful experience, other countries might be tempted to push boundaries under different pretexts like "domestic law," "investigation," or "terrorism."

Prediction 2: "Damage to Legitimacy"—The collapse of rules confuses "allies" more than "enemies"

Those who support the intervention appreciate the "removal of a dictator." However, if the method damages norms, the cost will be felt in the long term. The Guardian points out the spectacle of international law becoming like a "rag" and how Trump's theatrical politics strangely resonate with Chávez's political methods. The Guardian

Global Affairs also suggests that a disregard for international law and alliance coordination might lead world leaders to seek "insurance against provoking the U.S.," potentially encouraging closer ties with China and Russia. Chicago Council on Global Affairs

The value of "order" is not just in restraining hostile nations. It also serves as a foundation to alleviate allies' anxieties and attract investment and reconstruction. If that foundation shakes, the cost of rebuilding Venezuela will skyrocket.

Prediction 3: "Oil is not a 'spoils' but a 'heavy assignment'"—Lessons from Iraq

Oil is Venezuela's greatest attraction and its biggest trap. The New Yorker reflects on the post-Iraq war experience, noting that oil companies do not move based solely on "contracts" and that without long-term political stability, they cannot commit to massive investments. The New Yorker

Global Affairs also discusses the scale of funds needed for infrastructure restoration and how security and political turmoil are disliked by the energy market, urging caution against short-term optimism for increased production. Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Thus, the idea of "recouping through oil" is likely to remain a pipe dream without a blueprint for stable governance.

Prediction 4: "The next 48 hours are the most dangerous"—Power vacuum and militarization

The Atlantic Council organizes future divergences into multiple scenarios. The best case is that surrounding officials lean towards negotiation, smoothly transitioning to elections and a transitional government. The worst case is that remaining forces or armed groups fracture, leading to prolonged guerrilla and criminal violence. Atlantic Council

CFR also suggests that if the U.S. appears more focused on the "practical benefits" of oil and governance than on the democratization process, it could clash with domestic expectations in Venezuela ("Who is legitimate?" "When is the election?"), risking the collapse of security and administration. Council on Foreign Relations

The absence of a "dictator" does not immediately mean the "recovery of state functions." Misreading this could lead to a void rather than a celebration.

Prediction 5: "Global Ripple Effects"—Taiwan, Ukraine, and the temptation of "imitation"

One of the most widely spread points on social media is the "implications for other regions." On Reddit, posts speculating on connections between this event and Taiwan or Ukraine are visible, with comments like "Is there a deal where the U.S. gets Venezuela, China gets Taiwan, Russia gets Ukraine...?" (speculative with no evidence provided). Reddit

Such "associations" themselves amplify the uncertainty of international politics, as baseless suspicion can shake markets and public opinion, giving momentum to hardliners in various countries.

Social Media Reactions: Praise and Disgust Grew at the Same Speed

1) Expert Community (LinkedIn): The focus is on "Western Hemisphere," "China and Russia," and "Exit"

On LinkedIn, posts sharing the POLITICO article link along with quotes from the U.S. Secretary of State's "Western Hemisphere" remarks are seen in a geopolitical context. LinkedIn
Similarly, multiple posts introduce the article as an "important issue summary," giving the impression of setting the agenda rather than expressing approval or disapproval. LinkedIn

2) Popular Social Media/Forums (Reddit): Intuitive Polarization—"Overthrowing Dictatorship" vs "Imperialism"

In Reddit threads,

• "Is it for oil?"

• "Without an exit strategy, it will become a quagmire"

• "Will it extend to other countries next?"
  such points intersect in a miscellaneous manner. For example, comments expressing concern about "where next" and anger towards U.S. domestic politics are visible. Reddit

※As a characteristic of social media, primary information (official announcements, local reports) and speculation are mixed. In this article, speculation is limited to "what is being said," and factual relationships are aligned with what can be confirmed by reporting and analysis sources.

Points of Interest Moving Forward (Checklist)

• Blueprint for Governance: Who will handle interim governance, and under what conditions will elections occur (is there a roadmap presented)? Council on Foreign Relations

• International Community's Reaction: How will discussions on sovereignty and legitimacy be handled at the UN and elsewhere? Reuters

• Energy and Reconstruction Funds: What are the conditions for investment to truly move? If stability is not guaranteed, expectations will reverse. The New Yorker

• Security Divergence: Which direction will it lean towards, the best (transition through negotiation) or the worst (fragmentation and militarization)? Atlantic Council