Behind the Conversation Between the Thai Prime Minister and Mr. Trump: Where is the Key to the Cambodian Conflict Ceasefire?

Thai Prime Minister to Call Trump: "Ceasefire Declaration" and the Sounds of Gunfire in the Field

"Tonight, I will speak with President Trump." Thai Prime Minister Anutin (interim) revealed that he is scheduled to have a phone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump on the night of December 12, 2025 (local time). The backdrop to this is the reality that fierce clashes between Thailand and Cambodia, involving exchanges of rocket and artillery fire in the border area, have entered the "fifth day." On the same day, however, Trump posted on social media that "both countries have agreed to 'cease all shooting from tonight,'" speaking of a ceasefire as if it were a fait accompli. However, the tones of the parties involved do not align. The gap between words about the ceasefire and the situation on the battlefield is currently shaking the security of Southeast Asia. Investing.com

What is Happening: Fifth Day of Clashes and the "Ceasefire Declaration"

The trigger was the resumption of fighting between Thailand and Cambodia, exchanging rockets and artillery fire at multiple points along the border. The two countries have long-standing disputes over the demarcation of their 817 km border, and it is reported that heavy weaponry was used in various areas this time as well. By December 12, at least 20 people had been killed and over 260 injured according to both countries' tallies, with hundreds of thousands of evacuations occurring on both sides. Investing.com

In this situation, Trump claimed on December 12 that he had spoken with the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia by phone, posting on Truth Social that they would "cease all shooting from tonight" and return to a previous peace agreement. The post also emphasized the "continuation of trade with the U.S.," drawing attention to the fact that ceasefire and trade were discussed in the same context. Investing.com

On the other hand, Thai Prime Minister Anutin stated on the same day that "the call went well," but did not delve into a ceasefire agreement, explaining that he asked Trump to urge Cambodia to "stop fighting, withdraw troops, and remove landmines." The Thai side maintains its stance that "we are not aggressors, but retaliating." Here lies the discrepancy between the U.S.'s assertion of "agreement" and the involved countries' perception that "conditions are not met." Investing.com

Ceasefire in July, Expanded Agreement in October, and Breakdown in November

The complexity this time lies in the fact that this is not the first "ceasefire." According to Reuters, the intense five-day fighting in July was reportedly stopped by a phone call from Trump and pressure suggesting high tariffs. Furthermore, in October, an expanded ceasefire agreement was reached at a summit in Malaysia, including steps such as troop and heavy weapon withdrawal and the release of 18 Cambodian prisoners. Reuters

However, in November, Thailand strongly reacted to the severe injury of Thai soldiers by what it claimed were "newly laid" landmines, suspending the agreement. Cambodia denies the accusations of laying landmines. The current clashes reignited on the accumulated mistrust. Investing.com

Does "Tariff Diplomacy" Work: The Line Drawn by Thailand

When Trump talks about a ceasefire, it often takes on a strong "deal" aspect. In addition to the mention of tariff pressure during the July ceasefire, Trump himself has claimed that he "stopped the war using tariffs as leverage." In response, Thailand has clearly drawn a line, stating that "tariffs should not be a means to enforce peace." Reuters reports that the Thai Foreign Minister emphasized the need to separate trade negotiations from border issues. Reuters

Interestingly, Prime Minister Anutin noted that "Trump inquired about the progress of trade negotiations but did not seem to apply pressure due to the fighting." In other words, while the "ceasefire = tariffs" structure is not being brought to the forefront for now, Trump's post emphasizes "trade with the U.S." This dual message complicates the reception among the parties involved, the market, and even on social media. Investing.com

ASEAN and Malaysia: Ceasefire Monitoring and the New Element of "Satellites"

Increasing its presence as a mediator is Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar, who is also the chair of ASEAN. According to Reuters, Anwar has called on both sides to "refrain from military action," explained that ASEAN's monitoring team will be dispatched to the border, and that the U.S. government will provide satellite monitoring capabilities. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet also expressed his welcome for Anwar's ceasefire proposal on Facebook. Reuters

However, the Thai side argues that "a unilateral ceasefire cannot be declared while fighting continues," insisting that prior consultations are necessary for a ceasefire. Even if the framework for monitoring teams and satellite surveillance is established, if mutual distrust over "who fired first" or "who laid the mines" is not resolved, the ceasefire may end up only on paper. Reuters

Why It Gets Complicated: Preah Vihear Temple and a Century-old Border Line

The symbol of this border dispute is around the Preah Vihear Temple in northern Cambodia. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in 1962 that the temple is located in Cambodian territory, and in a 2013 interpretative judgment, clarified that the 1962 ruling recognized Cambodian sovereignty over the entire promontory on which the temple stands. International Court of Justice

The temple was registered as a World Heritage Site in 2008, and there have been instances of armed conflict since. UNESCO also called for "calm and restraint" in 2011 after casualties and damage to the heritage site around the temple, announcing a mission to the area. The fact that cultural heritage can be both a "tourism resource" and a "means of national prestige" symbolizes the complexity of this conflict. UNESCO World Heritage Centre

Fragments of the War Situation: Airstrikes, Rockets, and "Both Sides Claiming Damage"

According to further reports from Reuters, fighting continued even "hours after" Trump's ceasefire claim, with the Thai side reportedly attacking targets with fighter jets. The Thai Ministry of Defense explained that it was "necessary to retaliate" because the Cambodian side fired heavy weapons, and stated that rockets landed in Sisaket Province in northeastern Thailand, severely injuring two civilians. The Cambodian side also reported damage, including attacks on bridges and buildings. Reuters

AP also reports that the involved countries are not united in response to Trump's post, with fighting continuing and clashes occurring in areas including around the Preah Vihear Temple. As the front line expands, the risk of accidental escalation (misidentification or misfire) increases. AP News

The Symbolic "Landmines": Assurance Cannot Be Achieved Without Verification

This time, Thailand is particularly emphasizing the landmine issue. The Thai side claims that "newly laid landmines severely injured its soldiers," triggering the suspension of the November agreement. Meanwhile, Cambodia denies laying landmines. Therefore, the "removal" demanded by Thailand and the "verification by third parties such as satellites" suggested by Cambodia become important as practical measures for the ceasefire. Investing.com

Domestic Politics Also Involved: Anutin Administration's "Hardline" Incentive

The context of Thai domestic politics, which could increase the risk of prolonged conflict, cannot be ignored. Reuters reports that Anutin took over the administration in September after his predecessor's downfall and plans to dissolve parliament ahead of the general election next March. In the short-term administration, there is a need to demonstrate "leadership," and border issues are easily linked to nationalism. Reuters

SNS Reactions: Rapid Spread, Skepticism, and "Information Warfare"

In this situation, the "information space" is as heated as the battlefield. Symbolically, Trump's post about "agreement to cease shooting" quickly spread through X posts from media in various countries. Official Reuters accounts and posts from national newspapers were quoted, with reactions such as "great news if the ceasefire is true" and "it's dangerous to assert 'agreement' when the involved countries deny it" intersecting. X (formerly Twitter)

As for the Thai side's reaction, Thai PBS World reported that "Prime Minister Anutin will only 'update' Trump on the situation," sharing the scheduled call time (around 9:20 PM). In the reply section, there are varied discussions such as "Is it enough just to update?" and "U.S. involvement is necessary, but condition negotiations come first." X (formerly Twitter)

Furthermore, Reuters reports that Anutin posted on Facebook, stating, "Our actions are the answer." This reveals a structure where the leader himself uses social media as a platform for "domestic messages," reinforcing the legitimacy of military actions. Reuters

On the Cambodian side, reports about Prime Minister Hun Manet's phone consultations and stance on the ceasefire spread, with growing calls for third-party verification (such as satellites) on "who attacked first." On social media, there are voices hoping that monitoring will weaken the propaganda battle, while others express concern that the scramble for evidence will distance the ceasefire. Reuters

Points for Investors to Consider: Trade Negotiations, Tariffs, and Supply Chains

This issue attracts attention from an investor perspective because it is discussed not only as a "security risk" but also in connection with trade negotiations and tariffs. Reuters reports that the U.S. and Thailand announced a mutual trade framework in October, with a 19% tariff on Thai products maintained, while exploring the possibility of reductions. If the ceasefire fails and the tariff card is brought to the forefront again, it could impact export companies and supply chains. Reuters##HTML_TAG_380