The Aviation Industry Shaken by a Storm of Tariffs: The Deep Anxiety Behind Delta's "Refusal to Accept" Declaration

1. Introduction: The Sudden Emergence of the "50%" Figure

"It's like a steel barricade." On July 16, at the IATA media roundtable in Singapore, Secretary General Willie Walsh described the 50% tariff on Brazilian products suggested by the U.S. government in this way. His expression was stern and somewhat fatigued. The press section of the venue was filled with trade experts and regional airline PR representatives, creating a tense atmosphere.Reuters

2. The "Black Box" of Costs Created by Tariffs

According to IATA's estimates, the average catalog price of a long-body A350 is around $300 million, but with a 50% tariff, an additional burden of $150 million per aircraft arises. This is equivalent to the cost of constructing a large composite material factory. It is no wonder that airlines are immediately incentivized to delay acceptance.Reuters

3. Embraer's "State of Emergency" Declaration

The loudest outcry comes from Brazil's Embraer. CEO Francisco Gomes Neto expressed the crisis with the strong words "losses equivalent to a pandemic." The regional jet E175 bound for the U.S. incurs about $9 million in tariffs per aircraft upon delivery, collapsing profitability.Business InsiderEnglish Newspaper

4. Delta Air Lines' "Refusal to Accept" Declaration

At the April earnings briefing, Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian declared, "We'd rather not fly than pay additional tariffs." The internal campaign "#NoTariffPlanes" was shared on LinkedIn, with employees voicing concerns that "tariffs directly lead to higher customer fares."LinkedIn

5. The Hashtag #TariffTrouble Spreading on Social Media

On the 16th, a Reuters official X post (formerly Twitter) recorded 33,000 impressions in just three hours. The comments section was filled with mixed opinions such as "Are airfares going to rise again?", "Hindrance to green fleet renewal," and "We should protect manufacturing workers' jobs."X (formerly Twitter)

Featured Posts
- @AeroEconomist: "Aircraft are assembled crossing borders over 20 times. Tariffs will just boomerang."
- @EcoFlyer_JP: "If decarbonized equipment stops, the CO2 reduction roadmap will fall behind."
- @Seat2B_Spotter: "Delivery delays = extended aircraft age = outdated in-flight entertainment. It affects the boarding experience too."

6. European Reaction: Joint Statement by A4E and ERA

The Airlines for Europe (A4E) issued a statement titled "Don't Hold the Aviation Sector Hostage to Trade Friction" on July 15. The European Regions Airline Association (ERA) also warned of "devastating impacts on inter-regional connectivity."Travel TomorrowInternational Airport Review

7. Ripples in the Supply Chain

Boeing and Airbus are not immune. The A350 involves the assembly of a Spanish tail, French wing structure, Japanese carbon fiber, and American avionics. If tariffs are imposed midway, costs add up in a "flying Frankenstein" state, shaking the very foundation of the division of labor model.MarketScreenerReuters

8. The Perspective of Aviation Finance

Leasing company Avolon warns that "financing conditions for ordered equipment will need to be recalculated." If the risk premium of additional tariffs overlaps with rising interest rates, the lease rate factor could increase by more than 0.1 points, resulting in an additional burden of tens of millions of dollars over a 10-year lease contract.

9. Impact on Environment and Sustainability

IATA aims for net zero by 2050, but delivery stoppages delay improvements in fuel efficiency, pushing up the CO₂ emission reduction curve. For airlines preparing for ICAO's CORSIA phase introduction, the reality of a "double taxation" of environmental levies and tariffs looms.

10. WTO Rules and Political Risk

The U.S. measure may be based on "national security exceptions," making a prolonged WTO dispute resolution inevitable. As with the past CSeries litigation, even if tariffs are eventually lifted, the "delivery gap period" will not return.Wikipedia

11. Defensive Measures by Leading Airlines

• Diversified Orders: ANA adjusts the ratio of Airbus and Boeing, hedging risks across assembly lines in Japan, Europe, and the U.S.

• Utilization of Used Aircraft: AirAsia X plans to add 12 used A330ceo aircraft to fill interim demand.

• Flexible Fare Surcharges: Lufthansa is considering "tariff fluctuation-linked" ticket rates.
  
  
  

12. Future Scenarios

1. Tariff Withdrawal Scenario: U.S.-Brazil negotiations conclude with a freeze before the August implementation, resuming deliveries and rebounding stock prices.

2. Postponed Application Scenario: Implementation occurs but with a three-month grace period, shifting airline acceptance to the fourth quarter or later.

3. Long-term Fixation Scenario: Tariffs continue for over a year, reducing regional route networks and paradoxically benefiting intra-regional LCCs.
   
   
   

13. Conclusion: Can the "Sky Supply Chain" Be Protected?

The aviation industry, having just suffered deep wounds from the pandemic, now faces a new trade shock. Secretary General Walsh's warning is by no means an exaggeration. Only with global technological cooperation can both passengers and cargo be transported smoothly. Many social media users are beginning to share the danger that political decisions regarding tariffs could freeze this complex and precise ecosystem overnight—along with the sentiment that "the sky is the world's largest collaborative workspace."