The Setback of the Recall Movement in Taiwan—Exploring the Fate of Pro-China Legislators and the Background: The Headwinds of "Resist China, Protect Taiwan" — The Shock of Defending All 24 Seats

1. The Shockwave in Taiwanese Politics on July 26

The large-scale recall in 24 electoral districts on July 26 ended with an unexpected result where all targeted Kuomintang (KMT) legislators survived. Taiwanese media dubbed it as "大罷免全面翻車 (The Great Recall's Total Derailment)," reporting it as a strategic defeat for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Voters in favor of the recall did not reach 25% in any district, and the opposing votes outnumbered them, leaving no seats vacant.The Guardian

2. Background of the Recall Initiation — The "Morning Little Wild" Twist

The administration of Lai Ching-te, elected in the 2024 presidential election, has been continuously obstructed by the KMT and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) coalition in the Legislative Yuan. The national defense budget and the appointment of grand justices were frozen, and a Taiwanese version of the "Parliamentary Reform Act" was also passed. Civic groups, viewing the opposition's Beijing-leaning bills as weakening national defense, began a joint petition, leading to recall requests in over 30 districts. This "first wave" involved the current 24 districts.

3. Five Major Reasons for the Failure

1. Mismatch in Electoral District Selection
   The targets were primarily KMT strongholds known as "deep blue." Scholar Chiu Shiyi analyzed that "indiscriminate recalls provoked backlash from the middle ground."Deutsche Welle

2. Overuse of "Anti-China, Protect Taiwan"
   Some DPP supporters went as far as to say on social media that "those who don't vote aren't Taiwanese." A game developer's Facebook post criticized this by asking, "How is this different from Little Pink?" which spread widely.

3. Insufficient Mobilization
   While citizen volunteers were effective during the signature phase, the "election machinery" to bring voters on election day was stronger on the KMT side. Clarence Wu pointed out that "it should have been narrowed down to 6 instead of 30."

4. Dissatisfaction with Economy and Livelihood
   Frustration over high prices and low birthrate measures created an atmosphere of "life over political struggle," with #大罷免 (Great Recall) being temporarily overshadowed by #生活守護 (Protecting Life) trending on X (formerly Twitter).

5. Runaway Words and Fatigue from Division
   President Lai Ching-te's remark about "eliminating impurities" reinforced the label of "Green Terror," alienating swing votes.

4. The Dual Structure of Public Opinion Seen on SNS

• #大罷免 tags showed a balance between "abuse of democracy" (blue side) and "it's not over yet" (green side).

• Influencer Lai Cheng-wei gained attention on X for "accurately predicting" the outcome.

• On Facebook, a post questioning "Recall = Witch Hunt?" received 15,000 reactions, highlighting "political fatigue."

• A post-recall survey on PTT's Gossip Board showed 56% as "a warning to DPP," 28% as "support for KMT," and 16% as "indifferent" (8,200 votes).

5. Domestic and International Repercussions

Domestic Politics

• The KMT declared it a "victory of stability and inclusiveness," with viral footage of all 24 members embracing.The Guardian

• DPP Secretary-General Lin You-chang expressed his intention to resign, and Chief Convener Ke Chien-ming faced a deadlock.

• The fact that a new grassroots organization, primarily of women and freelancers, gathered over a million signatures is also a budding sign of civic solidarity.

Implications for China and the U.S.

• China's Taiwan Affairs Office immediately commented that "public opinion supports peaceful reunification."

• Early Fang from the U.S. think tank CSIS noted that "while the result itself does not directly affect U.S.-Taiwan relations, prolonged budget stagnation could cast a shadow on long-term defense cooperation."

6. Future Scenarios

• Second Wave (August 23)Experts unanimously agree that the fate of the remaining 7 seats is "quite challenging."

• 2026 Local ElectionsIf the DPP cannot reclaim the "livelihood card," it may face a major defeat locally.

• 2028 General ElectionThere is a possibility that the grassroots citizens from this time will advocate for "political moderation" and form a third force.

7. Lessons — From "Fear to Empathy"

Video creator Susan Yeh called for the recall system not to become a tool of hatred. Political scientist Tso Cheng-tung also stated that while "anti-China" is a consensus, labeling is counterproductive. The maturity of Taiwanese democracy depends not on fear and anger, but on the ability to listen to each other.Deutsche Welle

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