The Deep Gap Not Filled by the Tesla Contract: The Impact of Samsung's 55% Profit Decline - The Influence of China and the Harsh Market Environment

1. The Weight of a "55% Decrease" That Can't Be Captured by Headlines Alone

An "economic cliff" that cannot be postponed—that's what this financial report represents. In its Q2 2025 (April-June) financial results announced on July 31, Samsung Electronics reported a 55% drop in operating profit from the previous year, sinking to 4.7 trillion won. Revenue increased by only 0.7%, effectively halting growth drivers.InfoMoney

2. The Core of the Blow Lies in Semiconductors, the "Brains"

The mass production of HBM3E/4, which was supposed to drive memory demand, was delayed, resulting in a 94% year-on-year decrease in the semiconductor division's profit, down to 40 billion won. Delays in AI chip supply to NVIDIA and U.S. export regulations dealt a double blow. The Korean version of Reuters described it as "falling from the 'trillions of won range' for the first time in six quarters."Reuters Japan

3. Smartphones and Home Appliances Hold Their Ground, But the "Cash Cow" Hasn't Returned

The mobile division secured a profit of 3.1 trillion won thanks to the strong performance of the Galaxy S24 series. Harman also achieved a 56% increase in profit from automotive audio, but it was far from enough to offset the semiconductor slump.Korea JoongAng Daily

4. Tesla's $16.5 Billion Contract Lays the Groundwork for a "Recovery Scenario"

U.S. Tesla has commissioned Samsung for AI autonomous driving chips. A new factory in Texas is scheduled to start operations in 2026, with the yield of the 2nm process being crucial. Analyst Greg Roh is cautious, stating, "The Tesla effect will significantly contribute from 2023 onwards."Reuters

5. The Social Media Thermometer—A Mix of "Pessimism" and "Calm"

• X (formerly Twitter): #SamsungEarnings is trending in South Korea and the U.S. Posts like "If HBM4 isn't accelerated, SKH will overtake" and "Underestimating the political risk of export regulations" are increasing rapidly.X (formerly Twitter)

• Reddit: A thread titled "Samsung's profit more than halves…" has been created in r/business, with investors describing the situation as "critical." In r/Semiconductors, a headline about the "94% profit drop" is at the top.RedditReddit

• Instagram/Threads: News media posts receive harsh comments like "A giant unable to ride the AI boom," while TikTok sees an increase in views for comparison videos of "Samsung vs. Apple."Instagram

6. The "Next Checkpoints" Investors Are Watching

1. Timing for Mass Production Transition of HBM4 Samples – Expected to be by the first half of 2026.

2. U.S.-Korea Trade Negotiations – Risk of permanent 15% tariffs.

3. Yield of the New Texas Factory – Success in 2nm mass production is key to countering TSMC.

7. Competitive Comparison: Distance from SK Hynix/TSMC

SKH, which mass-produces HBM3E, has captured a 27% share of the AI memory market. TSMC holds over 52% in advanced contracts below 5nm. Many voices say Samsung must prioritize yield improvement over chasing market share.Reuters

8. Long-term Perspective—Conditions for Surviving the "Super Disparity" Era

Next-generation memory for AI, automotive, and space industries, a mass production system below 2nm, and a supply chain unaffected by U.S.-China friction—the difficulty of achieving these simultaneously is high. However, Samsung, with its global brand in mobile and home appliances, also has the weapon of platform expansion. Is this financial report the "beginning of the end" or a "plateau"? The answer lies in the yield of HBM4 and the 2026 Texas line.

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