【US】2026 Healthcare Shock: The Triple Whammy of Ozempic, Tariffs, and ACA Subsidy Expiration

Health insurance in the United States is expected to see a significant price increase in 2026. Aon predicts a +9.5% increase for corporate group insurance, while proposals for individual ACA market plans suggest a median increase of about +18%. The background factors include: 1) high drug prices and demand, exemplified by GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, 2) the potential introduction of tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals and investigations under Section 232, and 3) the risk of expiration at the end of the year for ACA premium tax credits (subsidies) expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic. If subsidies are cut, it is estimated that the out-of-pocket premiums for enrollees could rise by more than 75% on average. On social media, there is unrest among early retirees and self-employed individuals, with concerns about being unable to pay and the "return of the subsidy cliff," while others calmly note that the actual impact on those who continue to receive subsidies will be limited. Tariffs could lead to higher costs through the "drug prices → insurance premiums" pathway, and some insurers have already factored in tariff uncertainties into their rates. Politically, debates over extending or reducing subsidies are intensifying as the 2026 midterm elections approach.