The "AI-Face Distribution Revolution" Beginning with "PayPal×ChatGPT" — The Market is Enthusiastic, but the Field is Just Starting: Challenges Remaining in PayPal's "AI Payments"

The "AI-Face Distribution Revolution" Beginning with "PayPal×ChatGPT" — The Market is Enthusiastic, but the Field is Just Starting: Challenges Remaining in PayPal's "AI Payments"

2025年11月02日 00:30

1. What Happened — Key Points

On October 28, 2025 (U.S. time), PayPal announced a partnership with OpenAI to integrate PayPal's digital wallet into ChatGPT's "Instant Checkout," creating a seamless purchasing and payment pathway directly from chat. Additionally, on the commercial side, they introduced the concept of making it easier for sellers using PayPal to automatically appear on AI platforms through the adoption of the **Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP)**. Concurrently, they disclosed plans to build a suite of agent functions using NVIDIA's Nemotron open model.


This "AI × Payment" news was positively received in the market, with stock prices rising by double digits before the market opened on the day of the announcement. Coincidentally, the 2025 Q3 earnings report released on the same day showed revenue of $8.42 billion (up 7.3% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $1.34, exceeding consensus, along with the announcement of the first quarterly dividend of $0.14.


2. The Scope of "Agentic Commerce"

PayPal's "Agentic Commerce" envisions AI agents seamlessly connecting the process from product discovery to payment. When a user expresses a desire to purchase something in chat, the agent conducts a cross-search of inventory, prices, and delivery conditions to facilitate the shortest path to purchase. For sellers, the key is standardizing and connecting their product catalogs, inventory, and pricing data to the AI interface, aiming for a world where they are automatically listed on the "AI interface" through partners like Wix and Shopware. Choosing NVIDIA's open model likely reflects a decision focused on balancing development speed and operational cost.


3. The Remaining "Distance to Monetization" — William Blair's Cautious View

However, there are cautious voices regarding short-term profit and loss contributions. William Blair has revised its Q4 2025 EPS forecast downward from $1.40 to $1.28, citing the upfront costs of AI investments and pricing adjustments at Braintree as reasons for the friction of structural transformation, warning of a gap between **"expectations > actual revenue."**


4. Current Status in Data Points (Q3 2025)

  • Revenue: $8.42 billion

  • Adjusted EPS: $1.34

  • TPV (Total Payment Volume): $458.1 billion (currency-neutral +7%)

  • Dividend: $0.14 (first quarterly dividend, payable on 12/10, record date 11/19)

  • Guidance: FY25 adjusted EPS $5.35–$5.39, Q4 2025 $1.27–$1.31

These figures are consistent with those reported by official releases and major media. While the earnings themselves are "steady," the outlook for how and when AI, which is expected to usher in a "new chapter of growth," will impact various metrics remains in the evaluation stage.


5. Market and Investor Reactions

The earnings beat and partnership effects provided short-term stock price relief. However, the competitive landscape remains intense. The OS layer advantages of Apple Pay/Google Pay are still strong, and the challenge lies in how to reflect exposure to the "AI interface" in payment navigation. If improvements in proxy purchasing UI/UX, fraud detection, chargeback/risk management can **"reduce costs and increase CVR,"** it could potentially lead to sustained margin improvement.


6. Social Media Reactions — A Twist of Enthusiasm and Caution

On **Reddit (r/wallstreetbets)**,

"WOW finally. The stock has been stagnant for years."

"Say A.I. in the mirror 5 times to go green."

"As soon as Apple Pay and G Pay are integrated, they sliding back to $60." Such comments highlight a mix of enthusiasm and cynicism.


On **Reddit (r/stocks)**,

"I can see OpenAI becoming a trillion dollar meme stock once it goes public." Such comments reflect expectations for the AI market itself. Meanwhile, voices questioning "Is payment within ChatGPT really necessary?" and the necessity of use cases also emerge.


The positive sentiment on social media is the expectation of "increased exposure on new distribution fronts (AI interface) leading to a catalyst for payment share recovery," while the negative sentiment revolves around "the barrier of OS payments," "the time lag in monetization," and "increased costs for fraud prevention." Thus, the main point of contention is whether **"improvements in conversion can be measurably demonstrated."**


7. Risks and Points to Watch

  1. Implementation Speed: The pace of feature expansion on the ChatGPT side (Instant Checkout support and category expansion) and the adoption rate of **product data connections (ACP compliance)** on the seller side.

  2. Competitive Reactions: Native payments by Apple/Google, and defenses by existing platforms like Amazon/Shopify.

  3. Security/Fraud: The risk of increasing variants of **phishing/fake invoices**. How to absorb the costs of strengthening KYC/risk management, including the misuse of AI agents (e.g., manipulation in chat).

  4. Regulation: Accountability for AI recommendations, measurement of cookie alternatives (utilization of first-party data), and regulatory trends at the intersection of advertising × payments × AI.


8. Conclusion — A Phase Where the "Quality of Expectations" is Questioned

This partnership marks the starting point of PayPal's challenge to graft **"distribution on the AI interface" into payments.The preference for Nemotron's "open" model reflects a decision emphasizing speed and transparency. However, expectations are already being priced into the stock. What will be questioned moving forward are the **"evidence" of KPIs** such as (1) improvements in CVR and churn rates, (2) reduction in commercial acquisition costs, and (3) suppression of fraud loss rates. Whether AI can be transformed into a "device for improving gross profit rather than a cost" will be the watershed for evaluation.


References and Sources (Major Primary and Secondary Information)


Reference Articles

PayPal's AI Ambitions Face Market Scrutiny
Source: https://www.aktiencheck.de/news/Artikel-PayPal_s_AI_Ambitions_Face_Market_Scrutiny-19165895

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