"Is the Main Actor in 'Buying' Shifting from Humans to AI? Agent-Based Commerce Accelerates at Retail Festivals"

"Is the Main Actor in 'Buying' Shifting from Humans to AI? Agent-Based Commerce Accelerates at Retail Festivals"

2026年01月18日 11:06

1. At the place where the "future" of retail gathers, AI took center stage

The massive retail industry event, "NRF (Retail’s Big Show)," is a "trade fair" where the latest store equipment and back-end e-commerce technology come together. The future depicted there was surprisingly unified.


The keyword is "AI." Every process, from customer service, promotions, search, payments, inventory, logistics, to the analysis of "human movement" in physical stores, is being replaced by AI or redesigned with AI as a premise.


A symbolic example is the hologram customer service designed to stop visitors in their tracks. A hologram called "Mike" in a pink suit takes questions in front of a microphone and responds using generative AI. There is a slight pause in the conversation, but the explanation on-site is straightforward. The idea is that it functions sufficiently as a "trigger" to attract customers, rather than as "natural dialogue."


What becomes apparent here is the reality that AI is not designed as a "replacement for humans" but as a "device to influence customer behavior."


2. From "search and buy" to "AI buys"—the aim of agent-based commerce

At this NRF, what stood out as a larger trend was "agent-based commerce." In other words, instead of users hopping between multiple sites to compare, add to cart, and make payments, it envisions a world where AI lines up options in conversation, adjusts conditions, and proceeds to purchase.


The key to realizing this is the open standard "Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP)" promoted by Google. The concept is that AI agents and retail systems can communicate in a common language, allowing purchases to be completed within chat or AI search screens.


The point is "standardization." Once standards are established, humans no longer need to learn disparate UIs for each store. AI will be able to handle "inventory," "pricing," "delivery," "payment," and "returns" via the shortest route. There is certainly potential for convenience.


However, at the same time, the shift of the main battlefield from "store sites" to "AI screens" is significant.


Until now, retail has designed experiences and relationships through homepages, product listings, reviews, pathways, and point systems. Agent-based commerce works to strip away that "face of the store," offering only product information and transaction functions as APIs. Stores move closer to being "data suppliers" to be chosen by AI. The question of where the leadership shifts as a trade-off for convenience is being raised.


3. The moment when "creepiness" mixes with convenience

AI shopping appears eerie when it can do things that "don't need to be done."
For example, suggestions at the time of ordering, applying coupons, and recommendations tailored to dietary restrictions—these are generally welcome. However, when the same mechanism goes too far, it creates incentives to absorb peripheral information about life.


A symbolic scene discussed was a demo of ordering pizza via chat. To make suggestions assuming multiple people, it asks, "How many people?" This is normal. But then comes the idea, "If it's a hassle, upload everyone's photos to count."


Indeed, "input becomes easier." However, this is also the moment when we invent a "reason to hand over photos." Convenience often appears as a conduit for data collection.


4. How "discoverability" changes in the era of generative AI: What's next after SEO?

In the context of NRF, the increasing reality was the discussion of "what comes after search engine optimization is generative AI optimization."
Traditional SEO was a battle to get links to appear at the top of search results. However, as AI search and chat become common, users receive conclusions without clicking links. Companies want to create a state where they are promoted within AI's answers.


This is where services that monitor and measure exposure and mentions within AI come in. In which chat, during what questions, did their product appear compared to competitors? Such "visualization" becomes a selling point.


Here, advertising, PR, and product data preparation mix. In other words, in the era of AI shopping, the competition revolves around "ranking within answers" and "probability of being included as a candidate," rather than "search ranking."


For consumers, there is also the risk that a "new form of guidance" is strengthened behind the convenience.


5. Physical stores could become "mines for body data"

It's not just the online data war. At NRF, technology to "data-fy" physical stores was also at the forefront.
Among the exhibits were technologies that can optimize signage and displays by measuring people's gaze, stay, and attribute estimation in real-time in front of stores or sales floors. In the demo, visitors' faces were framed, and estimated attributes like age group and gender were assigned. There is also an explanation that the video itself is immediately discarded, leaving only metadata.


The issue here is that it doesn't end with "it's safe because we don't save it."
Even if the video is erased, if estimated attributes and behavior logs accumulate, they can be sufficiently used for designing ad distribution and promotions. And as long as they are "usable," they are likely to be used. The store transforms into a place that not only displays products but also absorbs the signals we silently offer (age, interest, hesitation, comparison, purchase intent).


Considering Japanese retail, this is not someone else's problem. Security cameras and human flow analysis are already becoming common, and their introduction is progressing under the guise of "improving customer experience."


However, if the content of "improvement" leans solely towards optimizing discount timing or signage, customers may feel "read" rather than "welcomed." The moment convenience surpasses the "feel of surveillance," a backlash will come.


6. The contrast of "without AI"—Ultimately, people remember the tactile experience

What stood out at the venue was the presence of exhibits that did not sell AI. For example, designing bags and packaging by working backward from brand challenges to create tactile sensations, reusability, and the excitement of a gift.


It's not about technology, but about centering on "the experience people take home." Such an approach, while losing in flashiness, remains in the memory of the purchase.


We may forget the responses of AI chats, but we surprisingly remember the feeling of bags we liked and reused or the mood of careful packaging. AI is strong in scale, but what remains in memory is not necessarily scale.


7. Reactions on social media: Expectations and caution are evenly split

The trend this time is striking in how opinions are evenly divided on social media.


Optimists: It looks like a revolution in "comparison and exploration"
In the tech community, there are positive voices saying that if standardization like UCP progresses, "it will be easier to create custom searches that span small stores" and "a 'personal marketplace' for specific categories will become possible." There is an expectation of increased options that do not depend on giant platforms.


Skeptics: Even if it's "open," it ultimately becomes the domain of large corporations
On the other hand, there is strong suspicion that "even if the specifications are open, the keys and contracts that can actually be used will ultimately be limited to giant corporations." There are also voices warning of a future where players controlling the entry points for payments and referrals charge "tolls."
In short, there is distrust that standardization might not be "liberation" but merely "changing the form of control."


Industry insiders: "The demos are flashy, but they can't talk about ROI"
On industry SNS (like LinkedIn), there are notably calm posts in response to the excitement at the venue. "Everyone talks about AI, but can't explain the strategy," and "Ultimately, if it doesn't translate into performance indicators (sales, gross profit, LTV, return rate, etc.), it won't be adopted," are the criticisms.


Also, from a consumer experience perspective, there are voices saying, "The purchase flow within LLM feels slower and less accurate than current e-commerce sites. It's faster to click through a few filtering options than to buy clothes through conversation." AI is strong in "comparison and discovery," but still weak in handling "mass checkouts," according to evaluations.


And persistent anxiety: A future where surveillance and advertising are "too complete"
Ultimately, what many are caught on is the fear that AI shopping will be "completed for the seller's convenience" rather than "for the user's benefit." Conversations become data, data becomes advertising, and advertising further mixes into conversations. The more convenience increases, the more our decision-making is quietly guided.


8. What retail needs now is not "AI implementation" but "designing how to be chosen"

What NRF 2026 posed was not "whether to introduce AI" but "how to be chosen in the AI era."
What retail and brands should do is not just flashy chat implementation.


  • Product data preparation: Refining information design (attributes, inventory, delivery, return conditions, warranty) that AI can understand

  • Redefining the experience: Strengthening the "tactile feel," "reassurance," and "trust" that can only be obtained on sites or in stores

  • Ensuring transparency: Providing explanations and options (opt-out) so that measurements and personalization in physical stores don't appear as "surveillance"

  • Distance from advertising: Managing so that ads mixed into conversations do not cross the line that erodes trust


AI commerce promises convenience. However, it is also a device that accelerates "how to sell."
Whether future shopping is truly welcomed will depend not on the performance of the technology, but on "how much it does not leave our feelings behind."


Reference URLs


Reference Article

I have seen the future of retail. It's all AI.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/tech/863365/national-retail-federation-show-shopping-commerce-ai

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