Nintendo Switch 2, PS6, Next-Gen Xbox: Where is the Console War Heading in the "Next 10 Years"?

1. Tectonic Shifts of 2025: A New Round Opened by Switch 2

In the "Nintendo Direct: Nintendo Switch 2" of April 2025, Nintendo gradually unveiled the specifications and titles for its successor. Set for release on June 5th, priced at $449.99 (varies by region), it enhances performance and experience without breaking the fundamental philosophy of the original, featuring better visibility in handheld mode and 4K output support when docked. Through official events and media hands-on sessions, DLSS-based AI upscaling and enhanced peripheral functions are perceived as an "evolution without added weight."NintendoTom's Guide

Nintendo has set a sales target of 15 million units for the fiscal year, anticipating initial stock availability and sustained demand through the end of the year, as explained in their IR presentation. Building on the success formula of the original Switch, the design aims to "avoid any gaps" with backward compatibility and continued third-party participation.Nintendo Homepage

Key Points
・The hybrid of console/handheld continues.
・Aiming for "balance between battery and heat" with AI upscaling.
・Lowering the hurdle for switching with continued use of compatibility and peripherals.Tom's Guide

2. Sony: The Run-Up to PS6 and Reaffirming "Local Execution"

Sony is positioning PS6 as the "next focus theme," while in the meantime, it aims to maximize the PS5 generation (with PS5 Pro and large IP investments) as its core strategy. Hideaki Nishino of SIE repeatedly emphasizes that **"cloud is supplementary, and most users prefer local execution,"** indicating a cautious approach to generational transition, looking "several years ahead."VGCPush Square

While the timing for PS6 remains unannounced, Microsoft's court documents suggesting "a transition to the next generation around 2028" continue to be cited as the expected range for the entire industry, including third parties. Additionally, an interview where PS5 lead architect **Mark Cerny stated "details on PS6 are several years away"** suggests that a short-term announcement is unlikely.TechRadarGamesRadar+

Key Points
・PS6 is "not too soon"—refining the extended lifespan of the PS5 generation.
・While expanding cloud as an option, "local is the main focus."VGC

3. Xbox: 2028 Vision and the Reality of "Cloud x Local"

The next-generation Xbox aims for a hybrid of cloud and local around 2028, as revealed through internal documents made public via FTC litigation. The hardware design roadmap and the next-gen SoC image, considering AI assistance (super-resolution, latency compensation, frame interpolation), reflect a design philosophy based on **"amplification by the cloud" rather than "scaling of the hardware alone."**The Verge+1

For the time being, strengthening Windows-based handheld integration is a focus. The global release of the ROG Xbox Ally/Ally X in collaboration with ASUS (October 16, 2025) and the introduction of the Handheld Compatibility Program aim to ensure an "Xbox-like experience even on portable PCs." This is a move to expand the "connection points for play" across PC, mobile, cloud, and console.The Verge

Key Points
・Assuming "different forms of Xbox," competing with service consistency.
・Not rushing hardware refreshes, focusing on creating a "playable environment" on Windows.Windows Central

4. "Blueprint of Experience" Becomes More Important than Hardware Specifications

AI upscaling (DLSS/PSSR/FSR, etc.) and variable resolution and frame rates are now pillars of a performance strategy that doesn't assume "expensive power and massive cooling." Especially for Switch 2, DLSS-based solutions are effective in balancing "power efficiency and visual appeal on mobile." The evaluation axis shifts from **static 4K to "how enjoyable it is to play dynamically."**Tom's Guide

Furthermore, backward compatibility, cross-save, and cloud save influence "ease of purchase and reluctance to quit." How well the pain points of generational transitions (repurchasing, DLC carryover, peripheral compatibility) are resolved will boost not "next-gen sales" but **"total playtime and ongoing subscriptions."**

5. Subscription, PC Integration, AI—The Three-Pronged Revenue Model

• Nintendo: Subscription focuses on "online + retro assets" to extend the lifespan of a single title (long-term operation of Mario Kart, etc.). The hardware's strengths lie in low heat, quietness, and long battery life, emphasizing "home compatibility."Nintendo

• Sony: With continued investment in large single-player IPs and the reorganization of PS Plus, it flexibly optimizes packaging/digital/subscription/PC deployment. It maintains immersion with zero latency, focusing on local execution.VGC

• Xbox: Maximizes the value of Game Pass across PC, cloud, and console. The hardware refresh is designed to be advantageous "as the number of entry points for experiences increases," with the immediate focus on preparing the ground for Windows x handheld.The Verge
  
  

6. Killer IPs and Release Timeline Scenarios

• Switch 2 (2025 onwards): Avoids "initial lineup gaps" by centering on in-house IPs (Mario/Zelda/Donkey, etc.) and enhanced versions with backward compatibility. The first year will boost the industry with a high attachment rate title (e.g., kart/party games).TechRadar

• PS6 (2027–2029 range): Reorganizes the portfolio of single/live services from the late PS5 to the PS6 launch. **The release is not rushed, avoiding confusion with "announcement→compatibility→phased transition."**TechRadarGamesRadar+

• Next-Gen Xbox (around 2028): Implements the hybrid concept as "cloud-assisted" rather than "cloud-mandatory." Low-latency UI/distribution technology and automatic correction using NPU are key differentiators.The Verge
  
  

7. Japanese Market vs. Global Market: Differences in Winning Strategies

In Japan, portability, family use, and noise/setup remain important, making Switch 2 highly compatible. In contrast, in North America/Europe, parallel use with PCs has become common, with Sony's PS/PC dual deployment and Microsoft's Xbox/PC/cloud seamless integration being strengths. The simple equation of **"console = in front of the TV, handheld = on the go"** has collapsed, and the preference is now determined by whether you can "carry the same account assets across all scenes," such as sofa/bed/outside/commuting.

8. 2025–2030 Roadmap Forecast

2025–26

• Switch 2 rapidly penetrates family and casual segments. The virtuous cycle of AI upscaling x low heat leads to a reevaluation of **"ease of play over performance."**Nintendo##HTML_TAG