How will Japanese terrestrial broadcasting evolve? Predictions for the "Post-TVer" era based on the TF1 collaboration

1. Aftershocks of the Revolution: Why Netflix is Returning to "Television"

　While it has been said that "streaming will kill television," on June 18, 2025, that narrative took an unexpected turn. Netflix announced a partnership with TF1, France's largest private broadcaster, to integrate the network's live channels and **TF1+** catch-up service entirely within the Netflix app. Netflix Co-CEO Greg Peters proudly stated, "This is the next step in an era where viewers think of 'television = Netflix.'"ft.com

　There are two trends behind this move. First, Netflix, having introduced an ad-supported basic plan, needs to expand its ad inventory. Live programming, with its longer viewing times, is a quick remedy to rapidly increase ad inventory. Second, due to the EU's content investment obligations, Netflix needs to further increase its proportion of French-language content. Partnering with TF1 allows Netflix to achieve the same effect as producing in-house content at a low cost.theverge.com

2. Benefits for TF1: "Instant Transport" to the Younger Generation

　Traditional terrestrial broadcasting is seeing a decline in viewing time across Europe, and TF1's market share has dropped from over 35% at its peak to 24%. To maintain ad rates, they need to increase the "places where they are seen." This partnership, which allows TF1 to enter the living rooms of 10 million Netflix households with a single tap, serves as a shortcut to reach younger audiences.barrons.com

　In fact, on French social media, there were numerous welcoming posts like "If I miss 'The Voice' on TF1, I just continue watching on Netflix" and "Sports broadcasts are now complete with just one app." On the other hand, there is also criticism, such as "Isn't including TF1, which can be watched for free, in a paid service double-dipping?"

3. How Does the Japanese Industry View This?

3-1 The Risk of Broadcasters Relying on "External Streamers"

　In Japan, TVer reaches 29 million monthly, but compared to the YouTube/Netflix alliance, ad rates are harder to increase. An executive from a key station mentioned to the author, "Considering the recovery of distribution investments, we cannot rule out the option of partnering with platforms." However, the moment they hand over distribution sovereignty, they face the dilemma of restricted rights to modify programming and allocate ad slots, which compromises "freedom of production."

3-2 From the Viewer's Perspective: "What if NHK+ Joined Netflix?"

　On Twitter (X), Japanese users expressed desires like "I want to watch high school baseball and taiga dramas on Netflix" and "I prefer watching national soccer matches on Netflix rather than DAZN." In response to breaking news tweets from Deadline and FT, there were also replies in Japanese speculating, "Will NHK or Nippon TV be next?"

4. Reinventing the Advertising Model

　CEO Peters stated, "Live programming rapidly accelerates the 'discovery engine.'" While Netflix's recommendations are designed around VOD, the addition of live viewing data allows for real-time understanding of preferences, significantly enhancing the personalization accuracy of the next content to watch. TF1 has revealed plans to replace some sponsor commercials with "targeted, non-skippable ads," setting the price at twice the usual rate.

5. Challenges of Technology and UI

　The implementation model is in two stages.

1. Deep Link Type (Summer 2026) ― Selecting the TF1 channel from the "Live" tab on the Netflix UI jumps to an HLS stream. Login authentication utilizes the Netflix token.

2. Integrated EPG Type (2027 and beyond) ― The TF1 slot is integrated into Netflix's program guide, with playback, rewind, and chapter division handled by the Netflix player.

The key on the technical side islow-latency ABR. TF1 plans to reduce the maximum 20-second satellite delay to below 5 seconds using Netflix CDN and edge cache.

6. Potential for Global Expansion

It has been reported that UK ITV, German ZDF, and Australian ABC are "interested," but major US networks are seen as reluctant due to their own SVODs (Peacock and Paramount+).businessinsider.com If this "French experiment" succeeds, there is speculation that similar models will expand in emerging markets with high advertising dependency (such as Brazil and Indonesia).

7. Stock Market Reaction

The day after the announcement, Netflix shares closed at $1,228.75, up 0.7% from the previous day, with a year-to-date increase of 37%. In contrast, the S&P 500 was up 1.7%. Analysts suggest that the impact on ARPU rather than new user growth supports the stock price.barrons.com Bouygues, which owns TF1, also saw its shares rise by 3.4% on the Paris market.

8. Voices on Social Media ― Enthusiasm and Confusion

9. Summary—Towards a "Frictionless" Power Struggle

Netflix once declared that "bundling channels is outdated." However, as the market approaches maturity and retention becomes the key KPI, they realized that the experience of **"everything being within Netflix"** is the ultimate differentiation—this is the essence of the current partnership.

For Japanese broadcasters and streaming operators, the framework of "streaming vs. television" is already outdated. What matters is who controls the **"first app users open."** The Netflix×TF1 alliance can be said to have taken a step ahead in addressing this question.