Kokuyo Ends Production of Randoseru School Bags: Declining Birthrate and Changing Values Reflect a Turning Point in "Ran-Katsu"

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

2. Details of Kokuyo's Withdrawal and Industry Impact

3. Current State of the Randoseru Market

4. Early "Ran-Katsu" and Grandparents-Led Consumer Behavior

5. Declining Birthrate Indicates Demand Reduction Risk

6. Emergence of New Price Ranges, New Materials, and Remake Business

7. Randoseru Culture Spreading Overseas

8. Survival Strategies of Manufacturers and Retailers

9. Future Outlook: From "Bag" to "Experiential Value"

10. Conclusion
    
    

1. Introduction

Randoseru is a symbolic item for Japanese elementary school students, but the environment surrounding its production and sales is undergoing significant changes. In March 2025, Kokuyo announced a review of its randoseru business and decided to cease production.Kokuyo Co., Ltd.

2. Details of Kokuyo's Withdrawal and Industry Impact

According to the official announcement, the main reasons are increased weight and rising prices. With the increase in ICT devices and textbooks, the average total weight has increased by over 900 g compared to ten years ago, raising concerns about the physical burden on children.Kokuyo Co., Ltd.

Meanwhile, the average price has polarized from 50,000 to 70,000 yen in the mid-2010s, with workshop-based models exceeding 100,000 yen and mass retail models around 30,000 yen. The 30,000 yen model launched by Ito-Yokado aimed for a 5% increase in sales compared to the previous year, drawing attention.kusui  blog

3. Current State of the Randoseru Market

According to the Randoseru Industry Association, the market size in 2024 is estimated to be about 55.2 billion yen. It has been on a slight decline since peaking in 2022. The most common time to start considering a purchase is April, indicating a trend towards earlier purchasing.Randoseru Industry Association
LINE Yahoo's big data on searches also shows that the peak of "Ran-Katsu" has been moving earlier each year, with the first week of April 2025 being the peak.Lycorp

4. Early "Ran-Katsu" and Grandparents-Led Consumer Behavior

In recent years, "Ran-Katsu" has increasingly been led by grandparents rather than the parent generation. Grandparents choose high-value models as a **"once-in-a-lifetime gift,"** while dual-income households, who manage the household budget, prioritize price and lightness, opting for mass retail models, subscriptions, or sharing services, leading to polarization in demand. This demand split is seen as having squeezed Kokuyo's "mid-price range" products.

5. Declining Birthrate Indicates Demand Reduction Risk

The number of births in 2024 fell below 700,000 for the first time in history (preliminary population statistics).Reuters
The decline in the number of children directly reduces the demand for randoseru, but high pricing has maintained sales. However, price increases are reaching their limit.

6. Emergence of New Price Ranges, New Materials, and Remake Business

• Mass Retail Price Reduction: Ito-Yokado's PB model priced in the 30,000 yen range.kusui  blog

• Lightweight Fabric: Products weighing less than 800 g, such as Footmark's "Raksack Junior," are popular.Mainichi Shimbun

• Remake Demand: Services that remake used randoseru into wallets or pouches have rapidly expanded since the COVID-19 pandemic.Lycorp
  
  

These are supported under the keywords "preserving memories" and "sustainable."

7. Randoseru Culture Spreading Overseas

With the development of SNS and cross-border e-commerce, randoseru has been increasingly sold overseas as a fashion item for adults. Gender-neutral designs have been well-received at exhibitions in Italy and Germany, and domestic manufacturers are strengthening their overseas sales channels.Theworldfolio

8. Survival Strategies of Manufacturers and Retailers

9. Future Outlook: From "Bag" to "Experiential Value"

Randoseru is evolving from a mere school bag to a **"carrier of six years of memories as experiential value."** Amid declining birthrates and diversification,

• Instant Custom Orders (3D printed components)

• Digital Integration (GPS tags and posture sensors)

• Sharing (via siblings and flea market apps)
  
  are expected to become the next competitive axes. Manufacturers urgently need to transition to a triune model of **"materials," "services," and "circulation."**

10. Conclusion

Kokuyo's withdrawal is not the collapse of the "randoseru myth" but the prologue to the next chapter. Even with a declining number of children, the need does not disappear.Lightweight, multifunctional, and sustainable new standards and redefining the bond with grandparents will be key to sustaining the randoseru culture.

List of Reference Articles

• Kokuyo "Notice of Randoseru Production Termination" 2025/03/17Kokuyo Co., Ltd.

• "Signs of Change in the Randoseru Market in 2025 | Yokado's 30,000 Yen Strategy" 2025/05/11kusui  blog

• LINE Yahoo "The Ever-Earlier Ran-Katsu Situation" 2025/07/03Lycorp

• Graph on Randoseru Purchase Survey (Randoseru Industry Association) Published April 2025Randoseru Industry Association

• Reuters "Japan's births fell to record low in 2024" 2025/02/27Reuters